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000
FXUS63 KSGF 242344
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
644 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

A broad area of showers and embedded storms was continuing to
lift north as a warm front lifted north through the region this
afternoon. This was being aided by a slow moving MCV that was
nearly centered over the Springfield Metro area. Expectations are
for this activity to continue into this evening, slowly lifting
north with additional showers developing on the western side of
the MCV as the northern arm of am MCS, moving over Oklahoma,
and beginning to move into the western Ozarks and get wrapped
into the MCV over the region now.

The rain being produced over the area was very efficient with
between a quarter inch to slightly over an inch of rain being
reported. Additionally, the extensive cloud cover was working to
suppress temperatures well below the previous forecast. Temperatures
across the area we generally in the upper 60s to middle 70s at
1pm. With cloud cover expected to continue, temperatures should
climb only a little with highs in the middle 70s most likely.

Synoptic and meso scale models continue to show additional rain
and storm development tonight into Monday morning once the system
over the area now, moves east this evening. The problem though is
that the position of the rainfall is different in each model.

Models develop a surface low pressure over the plains tonight and
moves is from southcentral Kansas into southeastern Nebraska by
sunrise Monday. The low will begin to slide a front towards the
region around sunrise and bring another round of showers and
storms to the area. The continuing southerly flow from the Gulf,
low level jet interactions and instability in the 2000 j/kg MUCAPE
range, there remains a potential for strong to severe storms
tonight and into Monday. Overall the primary concern will be
strong wind gusts, but hail to the size of quarters will be
possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

The cold front will take its time to move through the region with
storms remaining possible into Monday night and early Tuesday
morning. Some of these storms could be strong but the severe
potential will be limited.

Models have differing opinions for the day Tuesday with the GFS
bringing another round of rain through the Ozarks and the ECMWF
shunting most rainfall east of the region. Will keep an eye on the
models to hone in on a better solution for Tuesday.

An upper level ridge remains expected to slide over the region by
Wednesday and will control the regions weather through the end of
the week and through the coming weekend. Temperatures across the
region will climb into the lower to middle 90s under the ridge.
Combine this with the residual moisture from the rainfall just
prior, and heat index values will climb into the 100-105 degree
range, thanks to the elevated humidity.

It may be possible that we will need to issue heat headlines by
the end of the week as a result of the heat and humidity
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Pilots can generally expect VFR conditions despite unsettled
weather conditions. Intervals of lower ceilings will be possible
especially in the vicinity of showers and storms. Expect best
chance for storms late tonight into Monday morning as a storm
complex moves out of Kansas.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Foster