Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 230815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Early this morning...a surface front extended from a low over
central Mississippi across northern Louisiana into another low
over northeast Texas. Gulf moisture was being lifted
isentropically over this front producing light rain and showers as
far north as extreme south central Missouri. High pressure was
centered over the Great Lakes keeping most of the area under a
cooler and drier air mass.

Lower clouds had begun to develop over areas that were losing the
higher cloud cover. In addition...some patchy fog may develop over
low lying areas towards morning. These are expected to begin
burning off shortly after sunrise.

Temperatures will once again feel fall-like with highs generally
ranging from the low 70s under mostly cloudy skies and scattered
light rain in south central Missouri to the upper 70s under partly
cloudy skies over western Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas.

By tonight...that portion of the front over Mississippi will begin
lifting northward once again increasing the chances for light rain
and showers over southern Missouri. As winds veer around to the
southeast...there will be an increase in moisture which will allow
low temperatures tonight to fall into the low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

By upper level trough begins making its way from the
northern Rockies into the Northern Plains states. As it
will begin to drive a cold front southeastward which will begin to
approach the region on Tuesday. High temperatures will moderate
Monday and Tuesday with highs once again near 80 by Tuesday. This
should provide enough instability to produce strong to possibly
severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

With the passage of this front...the region will experience
another shot of cooler and drier Canadian air. Highs Wednesday
will once again struggle to reach the 70 degree mark. Lows
Thursday morning will be the coolest so far this season with some
locations over central Missouri making it down into the upper 40s.

High pressure will remain over the area through the remainder of
the week keeping temperatures close to seasonal normals with highs
in the low to mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. Highs will
be back near 80 by next weekend as the next front approaches the
region bringing in the next chance of rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

A low level stratus deck remains in place across portions of
southern Missouri late this evening. This cloud deck remained south
of the KSGF KJLN TAF sites through much of this evening, but is
expected to build back to the north overnight. MVFR conditions
can be expected with these clouds. IFR conditions are expected to
develop at the KBBG sites overnight into Sunday morning.

Light fog will be possible, mainly across central Missouri where
clear skies will occur.

Some light rain will be possible mainly across south central
Missouri tonight into Sunday, at this time the better rain chances
are expected to remain south and east of the TAF sites.




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