Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 240524

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1124 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

An upper level trough is currently located across the southwestern
U.S. this afternoon. The Trough will track east towards and
through the region this weekend with additional rounds for
moderate rain expected across region.

An upper level disturbance ahead of the main trough is currently
tracking northeast across the region this afternoon. An area of
rainfall has developed across Oklahoma and Arkansas and is
begnning to spread north into southern Missouri and southeastern
Kansas late this afternoon. The rain will continue to spread
north into the area into the overnight hours. The heaviest
rainfall will general occur along and south of I-44. A few storms
will be possible tonight as instability starts to slightly
increase across southern Missouri. No severe weather is expected
through tonight. The bulk of the rainfall should spread east of
the area by Saturday morning, though there could be some drizzle
or a rouge shower around in the morning but all in all there
should be a brief break in the rain.

Lows tonight will not drop off much from what temperatures are
currently across the area this afternoon. Temperatures may
actually start to warm later tonight across southern Missouri as
warmer air spreads north ahead of the approaching trough.

As the upper level trough spreads across the Plains on Saturday a
cold front will spread east into and through the area. Another
round of moderate to heavy rain will develop and track across the
area, again with the heaviest rains occurring across southern
Missouri from late Saturday morning into the early evening hours.
More instability will be in place ahead of the front, so will see
more in the way of scattered storms along the front. The
strongest instability will remain across south of the area, but
around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be able to develop across
far southern Missouri, generally east of Hwy 65 and south of I-44.
As a result there will be a risk for some severe storms mainly
across southern Missouri where the better instability will be in
place. The storm mode will like be more of the way of line
segments leading to the main risking being damaging winds. Low
level shear will increase ahead of the system. Any line segments
that can surge to the east of east northeast will have a meso
vort potential across far southern Missouri Saturday
afternoon/early evening.

This system should be fairly progressive and the rain should move
east of the area by the overnight hours Saturday. Total rainfall
amounts from this afternoon through Saturday evening will range
from 1 to 3" with locally heavier amounts. The heaviest rain will
occur along and south of the I-44 corridor. A Flood Watch remains
in effect through Saturday evening for southern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

A brief dry period is then expected Sunday into early next week as
an upper level ridge builds towards the area. Highs early next
week will warm into the 60s. Another system will then track
across the region during the middle of next week bringing
additional rain chances to the region. Behind that system an upper
level ridge and dry weather is expected late next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

A broad area of MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities will
continue to impact the region through tonight and most of the day
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will occur through much of the
forecast with slowly improving flight conditions expected after
00z Saturday.


MO...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for MOZ057-058-069>071-

KS...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for KSZ101.



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