Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211635

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1135 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS and upper level zonal
flow will give the region another great day. Sunny skies will
allow afternoon temperatures to climb into the middle 70s to
around 80 degrees again today with light southeasterly winds.

Cloud cover will begin to spread from south to north across the
area overnight as Tropical Storm Beta begins to make its way
across the Gulf Coast. Low and mid level moisture will also
increase overnight with precipitation chances increase into the
early morning hours as the cloud cover advances.

The rain will have to overcome the dry air in place over the
region with the best chances for this occurring mainly across
portions of far southwestern Missouri. Rain amounts will be light
with generally a tenth of an inch or less expected where rain

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Cloudy skies on Tuesday will help to suppress temperatures and
as rain chances continue through the day. High will be in the
upper 60 across the Arkansas state line with middle 70s expected
across central Missouri where some peaks of sun may occur through
the afternoon. The best chances for rain through the day Tuesday
will be generally along and south of I-44.

Ran chances and cloud cover will continue through the day
Wednesday and into early Thursday morning before the system
shifts east of the region. Temperatures on Wednesday will again
struggle to climb out of the middle 60s during the afternoon for
most of the area though as southwesterly surface flow returns
Thursday highs will climb into the 70s.

The Ozarks look to be in between system for Thursday afternoon
into Saturday evening with a warming trend to go along with the
dry weather. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the upper
70s to lower 80s before falling into the middle 70s again on
Sunday as a cold front makes its way into the area.

Models do show another round of rain potential Saturday night
into Sunday. Rainfall totals from the rounds of rain expected
through the week and into the weekend look rather light despite
the multiple days of rain possible. From a half to three quarters
of an inch is expected for areas along the Arkansas state line
with only a tenth of an inch forecast for central Missouri


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Upper level energy will lift into the area late tonight into
Tuesday and moisture should be on the increase from the south.
While it might take awhile to saturate the lower levels of the
atmosphere, we should see some rain developing on Tuesday morning
at SGF/JLN and potentially late tonight at BBG. Ceilings may
become IFR by late in the period, with mainly MVFR expected once
the rain begins.




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