Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 170527
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1127 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

The high clouds from this morning has moved off to the southeast
this afternoon leaving sunny skies for the region. Clear skies
are expected tonight, despite a weak mid level shortwave that is
poised to drop through the area. With winds remaining light, will
see temperatures drop into the upper 20s to around 30 once again
by morning.

Upper ridging across the area Monday, along with high pressure at
the surface will combine to make for another mild and pleasant mid
December day for southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Afternoon
highs will range form the lower 50s across central Missouri, to near
60 over far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

The upper ridge begins to shift east of the area Monday night as a
trough develops in the lee of the Rockies. Some mid and high level
clouds ahead of the system will begin to push into the southwest
portions of the area after midnight, with an increase in clouds over
the remainder of the area Tuesday. Despite the increase in
clouds, temperatures will remain on the mild side with highs again
in the 50s.

This trough then becomes the main weather player from Tuesday night
through Thursday. The trough is expected to deepen as s 125+ knot
upper level jet traverses the back side of the trough. Whether or
not is closes off still remains uncertain, but the 12Z GFS and
Canadian does close it off to our south on Thursday before
lifting it east northeast Thursday night into Friday. In any case,
models continue to show a consistent signal for increasing lift
Wednesday, with increasing rain chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night before ending later Thursday. At this point, thermal
profiles would suggest mainly rain, with the cooler air arriving
as the precipitation ends Thursday night. Thus any mix or a change
to snow looks to be brief with no impacts and confined to the
eastern Ozarks.

Otherwise, ridging builds back in for Friday and Saturday with quiet
weather and seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures expected.
A weak system may bring some light precipitation back into the
region by later in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

High pressure remains over the area allowing for VFR flight
conditions to continue through the next 24 hours. Surface winds
will remain light.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Hatch


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