905
FXUS63 KSGF 151030
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
530 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of the
  week. No severe weather expected however expect lightning and
  locally heavy rainfall.

- Temperatures climb back to around 90 by midweek, continuing to
  gradually increase into the lower 90s through the weekend.
  Heat index in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees from
  Wednesday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows an upper level vort max/shear zone from
eastern Oklahoma into southeast Missouri. A 25kt low level jet
was also in the same region with an area of showers and
thunderstorms moving northeast through western Arkansas. Latest
analysis also shows a moist airmass across the area, especially
along and south of a surface stationary front along Highway 54.
PW values range from 1.5-1.8in across this area. Satellite does
show some valley fog developing east of Springfield however
widespread cirrus moving in is making it hard to see and obs are
generally 5 miles or greater. Temps/dews where in the lower
70s.

Today through Tonight: Should see some valley/ground fog through
sunrise however incoming clouds may keep widespread dense fog
from forming and no adv planned at this time. The area of
showers and storms across western Arkansas will likely move up
into south central Missouri this morning given a weak cap and
lift present. Additional scattered showers and storms look to
form through the afternoon, mainly east of Highway 65. While
moisture is high, 0-3km theta-e diffs look to remain low (less
than 20C) therefore the main hazards will be lightning and
locally heavy rainfall. The 00z HREF QPF LPMM shows highly
localized pockets of 1-2 inches of rainfall today along and
south of I-44. Cloud cover will likely keep high temps below
average, in the middle to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Precip Chances through the end of the week and weekend:
Additional shortwave energy slides through the area Wednesday
with afternoon and evening precip chances however weaker lift
could keep chances less than 30 percent. A surface front will
drop south into the area Thursday and sufficient lift from
passing shortwave energy could give us slightly higher precip
chances (currently at 40-50%). These higher chances may linger
across the eastern ozarks Friday however a pattern shift looks
to occur by the weekend with increasing mid level heights/temps
as a summertime high pressure cell develops south of the area.
This should limit precip chances over the weekend to mainly the
far eastern ozarks however we will have to see exactly how far
north the upper high develops/expands.

Increasing temps and heat indicies through the weekend: Given
the clouds/precip chances Wed-Fri, high temps will likely remain
around average (a degree or two either side of 90). The surface
vegetation is fairly green/moist for this time of year
therefore dewpoints in the lower 70s seem plausible which would
lead to heat index values reaching the upper 90s to around 100.

Mean 850mb temps look to climb into the 20-24C range over the
weekend and into next week. Local climo studies suggest that
median high temps with clear/partly cloudy skies would be in the
lower 90s. The increase in temps combined with dews around 70
should allow for heat index values around 100 to potentially 105
degrees depending on afternoon mixing. Latest Heat Risk
forecasts keep the area into the minor to moderate range through
Friday with widespread moderate to localized major areas by late
in the weekend. This level of heat will affect most individuals
sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling
and/or adequate hydration.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through the BBG
site this morning. Additional showers and storms could then form
through the late morning and afternoon hours at BBG and perhaps
SGF however confidence is not high enough to include a
prevailing TSRA group at SGF at this time. Winds will remain
light out of the south with a gradual turn to the southwest
during the afternoon.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield