


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
724 FXUS65 KSLC 152209 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 409 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists for northern Utah and SW Wyoming through this evening. High-based convection this afternoon/evening across the area will bring a threat of gusty outflow winds that could contain wind gusts 50-60+ mph. A slightly cooler airmass moves in for tomorrow with more diurnal convection with a lower severe threat. Moisture will remain across the area through Saturday as a more monsoon type of pattern sets up. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...A slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists for northern Utah and SW Wyoming through this evening. A trough grazing northern Utah will provide some enhanced lift paired with good shear and decent CAPE profiles to result in some strong to possible severe thunderstorms to move from western Utah towards the Wasatch Front between 6-8 p.m. Currently mesoanalysis indicates some CIN across western Utah that will need to be eroded before convection can move through. CAMs continue to suggest a broken line of convection moving through portions of central and northern Utah. Dewpoints in the 30s with temperatures into the 90s across the area will result in strong outflow winds. If storms are able to organize enough and create a large organized outflow boundary then there exists the potential for wind gusts in the 50-60+ mph range. For areas across southwest Utah, generally southwest of a Beaver-Bryce Canyon-Lake Powell line, conditions will remain dry and windy with critical fire weather conditions. Convection will gradually dissipate after sunset this evening. A cooler airmass will be introduced to the area thanks to the trough moving to our east. This will help to keep temperatures near normal on Wednesday. More diurnal convection will develop across the area tomorrow, primarily across central and eastern portions of the area. Instability will be less tomorrow, but dry low levels will keep the potential for gusty outflow winds. Additionally, there is a possibility for flash flooding across sensitive areas of southern Utah up to the Swell as steering flow will be weaker tomorrow that will allow storms to be slow moving or even stationary, at times. .LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday), Issued 347 AM MDT... An upper cutoff low looks to meander over the Baja Peninsula, sliding north toward southern California. This low will result in a period of unsettled weather beginning Thursday resulting in widespread precipitation across southern UT. Modest moisture return is expected to persist through the long term period as the aforementioned upper low meanders to our southwest. This will result in PWATs generally ranging from around 0.5-0.7" across the majority of UT and southwest WY for the majority of the long term forecast. Additionally, both the GFS and EURO are hinting at a chance for PWATs ranging from 1-1.2" across southern UT Thursday-Saturday. Guidance has also trended toward advecting some pockets of higher PWATs further north which may serve to increase PoPs and increase rainfall totals locally. With this setup, some locally heavy rainfall amounts appear possible, particularly across southern UT. While details remain difficult to iron out, it bears watching. The aforementioned upper low looks to dissipate / phase into the mean flow late in the period. Following this, an upper trough looks to dive south over the Pacific NW. This could result in more unsettled weather near the end of the long term and following, though guidance still remains somewhat uncertain. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Gusty southerly winds are expected to shift northerly around 23z ahead of incoming thunderstorms, which are likely to impact the terminal between 00-04z. Gusty and erratic winds are possible near and within these thunderstorms, and severe wind gusts greater than 58mph cannot be ruled out, though more likely will peak in the 30-40 mph range. VFR conditions are expected during the TAF period, with a slight chance of brief MVFR periods during storm activity. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Northern terminals are likely to be impacted by thunderstorms between 00-04z. Gusty and erratic winds are possible near and within these thunderstorms, and severe wind gusts greater than 58mph cannot be ruled out, though more likely will peak in the 30-40 mph range. VFR conditions are expected during the TAF period, with a slight chance of brief MVFR periods during storm activity. Gusty winds at southern terminals diminish around sunset, with vicinity thunderstorms at KBCE expected to move east of the terminal by 00-01z. && .FIRE WEATHER...Conditions will remain hot and relatively dry near the surface for the entire area today along with high based convection that will pose the threat for gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning, particularly across northern Utah. A trough grazing by to our north is bringing enhanced instability and lift that will make for widespread convection. Given the dry low levels wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph will be possible with convective outflow. Non-convective winds will remain in the 20-35 mph range through the afternoon. Therefore, Red Flag Warning remain in effect for northern and western Utah. More diurnal convection is expected tomorrow afternoon, but non- convective winds will be slightly lower along with slightly improved RH as the trough brings a slightly cooler airmass into the area for tomorrow. Moisture increases through the week as a more monsoonal pattern takes shape with the introduction of a Four Corners high pressure. This will lead to diurnal convection through Saturday. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for UTZ478-479. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for UTZ492-493- 495>498. WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mahan LONG TERM...Worster AVIATION...Verzella FIRE WEATHER...Mahan For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity