Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
326 FXUS66 KSTO 062023 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 123 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty north to east winds Tuesday through Thursday, strongest Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Widespread Valley highs will be near or exceed 90 by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Northwest flow behind our past weekend`s trough dominates the forecast pattern today ushering in a warming and drying trend over the short-term. An upper-level high will build over the Eastern Pacific, moving into the Pacific NW Wednesday and throughout the rest of the work week. This will induce gusty north to east winds over the area, beginning Tuesday morning through Thursday. North to east winds 20 to 30 MPH are expected with gusts up to 45 MPH. NBM probabilities show a 65-90% chance of gusts exceeding 40 MPH and 70-95% chance over the mountains from Tuesday night into Thursday morning. As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for Western portions of the Sacramento Valley, Delta Region, including Interstate 5 and portions of Interstate 80 and 505 from Tuesday 11 PM to 8 AM Thursday. Strongest winds are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and again, late Wednesday night into Thursday early morning. There is a chance for gusty winds up to 35-45 MPH across the Northern Sacramento Valley, including Redding, Thursday morning as the gradient tightens as a low moves ito the Great Basin area and high pressure builds in the Pacific NW. However, confidence isn`t high enough for the area to be included in the current wind advisory. Nonetheless, be sure to secure outdoor items and be cautious of any blown down tree limbs! Winds will begin to taper off Thursday afternoon in the Valley with lingering breezy winds over the mountains through the evening. With this current pattern, temperatures will warm throughout the week and by Thursday afternoon highs will in the mid to upper 80s in the Valley with 70s and 60s across the foothills and mountains respectively. NBM probabilities show a 15-45% chance of temperatures exceeding 90 degrees across portions of the Central Sacramento Valley on Thursday. The forecast pattern continues to show warmer temperatures are in store as the week continues. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)... Upper-level ridge over the eastern Pacific will be the primary synoptic feature late week and through the weekend. Maximum temperatures will be upwards of 10 to 15 degrees above early May climatology with many Valley communities forecast to experience their first 90 deg F day of the calendar year. The temperature forecast confidence decreases Sunday/Monday as clusters depict various outcomes of the positioning and strength of the ridge during that time. Dry conditions are expected through the extended. // Rowe && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Sfc wind mainly under 12 kts outside of 15-20 kts west winds in the vicinity of the Delta Tue 00z thru Tue 09z. Gusty north to east winds Tuesday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 8 AM PDT Thursday for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley. && $$