Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 202310 AAA
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
510 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

Weak embedded wave within the mean northwest flow aloft is tracking
across the Midwest this afternoon. Very light radar returns
suggested the possibility for light flurries in far northeast
Kansas, otherwise only impact to the area has been in the form of
mid and high clouds spreading southward.

Mid to high cloud coverage increases tonight with easterly winds
around 10 mph and overnight lows in the teens. The next potent
shortwave trough enters the CO Rockies region Monday, enhancing
the sfc pressure gradient towards northeast Kansas. Winds across
northeast Kansas should increase between 10 and 20 mph sustained
by the morning, continuing through the afternoon as they veer
towards the south. Strong warm advection attempts to warm the area
closer to the normal values. However, the combination of cloud
cover and winds coming off the snow pack should limit temps to the
lower 30s up north to the upper 30s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

Available guidance is still differing between the track of the upper
trough as it lifts northeast over the central plains on Tuesday. The
GFS is the driest solution and further north with the trough axis,
while the latest ECMWF has come in slower and further south. The NAM
is the wettest solution with the trough axis being further south
than all others. Therefore confidence in qpf amounts still remains
on uncertain, especially near the Kansas and Nebraska border where
it`s possible for up to a quarter of an inch. Elsewhere, the track
of the system would place much of the CWA in the dry slot with
little to no accumulations. Based on forecast guidance, decided to
utilize the latest ECMWF and increase qpf amounts near the
Nebraska border. Confidence is decent for precip to start out as
drizzle early Tuesday morning and persist through the afternoon
along and east of highway 75. As the system arrives along with the
deeper moisture within the ice growth layer, a wintry mix is
expected to spread west to east through the early evening hours
Tuesday. Accumulations are not expected with perhaps some slick
spots on roadways.

An active northwest flow pattern sets up from Wednesday onward with
another round of light snow possible by Thursday as an arctic cold
front surges through. GFS maintains consistency with around a tenth
of an inch liquid equivalent while the ECMWF has backed off with
trace amounts. Temperatures are more likely to sink back into the
single digits Friday morning with highs recovering into the 20s.
There remains a signal from the GFS of another embedded wave
impacting mainly Missouri Friday night and Saturday, however due
to the low confidence have only a slight chance mention for snow
over far eastern Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 507 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

Weak cold front dropping south of the TAF sites will result in a
period of ENE sfc winds along with MVFR CIGs at MHK this evening.
The front should begin to lift back north after 6z with rising
CIGs possible after 06z. SE winds will increase markedly by 18z
Monday as low pressure develops across eastern CO.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Omitt


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