Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 160916

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 AM MST Fri Apr 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will continue through Saturday with near
normal temperatures and afternoon breeziness each day. A weather
system dropping in from the north will result in a chance of showers
to the east of Tucson Sunday into Monday. Drier conditions and above
normal temperatures return by the middle of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Latest IR/WV satellite imagery shows considerable
cirroform cloudiness across the region under westerly flow aloft
ahead of a weak shortwave disturbance currently to the west of the
northern portions of the Baja peninsula. This system won`t have much
impact on us as it moves through this afternoon but will result in
mostly cloudy skies today. Winds will continue to be on the breezy
side this afternoon with temperatures on the cooler side with highs
about 5 degrees below normal.

Saturday will feature mostly sunny skies and near normal
temperatures as our attention turns to our north as a disturbance on
the backside of a trough approaches from the north. Ensembles are in
fairly good agreement on the timing of this system moving from north
to south through the state from Saturday night through Monday
morning before ejecting eastward. Still some minor differences in
the exact track. Regardless, this system is moisture starved with
its inland trajectory, though enough moisture is present that a few
showers are expected to the east of Tucson peaking Sunday afternoon
through Sunday night. QPF amounts will generally be less than 0.10"
with a dusting of snow possible for the mountain tops as snow levels
will hover around 8000 feet. A rumble or two of thunder is possible
Sunday afternoon as well mainly across the White Mountains.

Any lingering shower chances will be along the New Mexico border
Monday with dry conditions elsewhere as drier northwest flow returns
with seasonable temperatures. Thereafter, expect shortwave ridging
Tuesday with a return to above normal temperatures. Some minor
differences by Wednesday and especially Thursday in the ensembles as
a semblance of troughing develops to our north and west. Dry weather
will continue with some increase in the afternoon winds Wednesday
and Thursday and perhaps a slight cooldown Thursday.


.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.
Generally BKN-OVC clouds AOA 15k ft MSL thru the forecast period.
SFC winds this afternoon into early evening SWLY/NWLY 10-15 kts with
gusts to 20 kts. SFC wind at other times light and terrain driven
less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon breezes will continue each day through the
upcoming weekend, but speeds will remain below critical thresholds.
Minimum RH values will continue to be in the single digits to lower
teens through Sunday. Dry weather will prevail through Friday, with
a chance of showers in the White Mountains Saturday and then farther
south along the New Mexico state line Sunday and Monday. Dry
conditions return next Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be
near normal to slightly below normal through Monday with warmer
temperatures returning the middle of next week.





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