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000
FXUS65 KTWC 192123
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
223 PM MST Sun Aug 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Drier air and building high pressure will result in less
thunderstorm activity with higher afternoon temperatures again
Monday. As the high center returns to east of our area, deep
moisture will return this week with a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms by Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Warmer temperatures aloft will continue to hinder the
development of thunderstorms today and again tomorrow as high
pressure shifts over Arizona. Both the GFS and ECMWF showed the high
pressure ridge becoming centered over the southern Plains by
Wednesday. This more favorable position of the high will advect
deeper moisture pooled south of the region back into the area as
early as Tuesday. Thereafter, the return of daily showers and
thunderstorms can be expected. Cooler high temperatures will also
coincide with the moisture increase and subsequent upswing in
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z.
FEW-SCT cloud bases around 8-12k ft AGL through the period. Isolated
-TSRA/-SHRA through 20/03Z will generally be near the higher terrain
south and east of KTUS. NWLY SFC wind will remain less than 12 kts
through the evening before becoming light and terrain driven
overnight and into Monday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated storms will favor the higher terrain
east and south of Tucson this evening. The pattern gradually shifts
early in the work week allowing for better coverage of showers and
storms, especially by Wednesday. Terrain driven 20-ft winds persist
at less than 15 mph, except for in and around thunderstorms where
strong outflows may occur.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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