Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 281611

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
911 AM MST Wed Oct 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...One more cooler than normal day today before
temperatures climb to above normal levels Friday into early next
week. It will remain dry through the weekend with passing high
clouds at times.


.DISCUSSION...Plenty of spots dipping down into the 20s this
morning, particularly across the valley floors east of Tucson in the
wake of a low pressure system which moved off to the east overnight.
Things have started to warm back up though, so the Freeze and Hard
Freeze warnings were allowed to expire at 8 am MST. Skies are now
clear across most the area in terms of cloud cover, so we are able
to see extensive snowfall across much of New Mexico into the
eastern mountains of Arizona.

Temperatures will rebound this afternoon 10 to 15 degrees warmer
than highs on Tuesday as ridging starts to build back in from the
west. The warming trend will then continue into this weekend, with
continued dry conditions and above normal temperatures once again in
the forecast. No forecast updates this morning. Please see the
remaining sections for additional details.


.AVIATION...Valid through 29/18Z.
Clear skies persist throughout the forecast period. SFC winds remain
less than 12 kts and variable in direction. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather has settled in across southeast Arizona,
with temperatures still well below normal. Temperatures moderate
through the remainder of the week, becoming above normal by Friday
into the weekend. Minimum RH values hover around 10-20 percent in
the valleys, with 20-30 percent at the higher elevations. Easterly
breezes will increase at times, particularly on Thursday and Sunday.
Otherwise, expect winds to remain less than 15 mph.


.PREV DISCUSSION...A mixed bag of temperatures out there at the
moment dependent on where a light breeze remains and where it is
Still plenty of temps in the mid to upper 20s this hour, just not
quite as widespread as would have been expected. At any rate, still
much cooler than normal in the northerly flow on the back side of
the storm system that is currently over SE NM.

We are now back to a dry stretch of weather with steadily warming
temperatures. High temps today will be roughly 10-15 degrees warmer
than yesterday however that will still be about 10 degrees cooler
than normal. Then another 10-15 degree jump will occur on Thursday
bumping temps to average for the end of October. After that point,
the warming will be more gradual and maintained through the weekend.

By the time we get to early next week a couple of the deterministic
models runs are suggesting light precipitation is possible although
the overall ensemble solutions continue to point to dry weather. The
difference amounts to how much energy can undercut the longwave
ridge over the western states at that point. Will stick to a dry
forecast for the moment and see how things evolve over the next
couple of days.





Fire Weather....Howlett

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