Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
000
AXGM70 PGUM 130010
DGTGUM
PMZ161-171>174-181-GUZ001>004-270400-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1010 AM CHST THU JUN 13 2019

...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MICRONESIA...

SYNOPSIS...
THE POST EL NINO DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF 10N...BUT WIND FLOW PATTERNS SHOULD SLOWLY CHANGE AND HELP
SPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF
KWAJALEIN AND NORTHERN YAP STATE ALONG WITH NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
AND GUAM REMAIN MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. THE WEATHER OVER THESE AREAS
WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ALTHOUGH SOME WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN JUNE.

DROUGHT REMAINS EXCEPTIONAL FOR ATOLLS AND ISLANDS OF THE FAR NORTHERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N. RESIDENTS OF THESE ATOLLS
SHOULD CONTINUE STRICT WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. AREAS AROUND MAJURO
AND KWAJALEIN/EBEYE HAVE RECEIVED A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS FROM ENEWETAK TO
UTIRIK AND WOTJE REMAIN VERY DRY BUT PATCHY SHOWERS COULD START PASSING
OVER THESE AREAS. THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE RMI HAVE RECEIVED HELPFUL
SHOWERS BUT DRIER WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AND ALL PEOPLE OF THE RMI SHOULD
SERIOUSLY CONSIDER WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. SEE SUGGESTIONS BELOW
AND CONTACT LOCAL WATER MANAGERS FOR WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES.

COMPUTER MODELS SUPPORT THE PREDICTION THAT DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME RELIEF AS
WIND FLOW PATTERNS HAVE CHANGED AND PATCHY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
AND OVER THESE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS...BUT RELIEF FROM DROUGHT WILL
BE A LONG-TERM PROCESS. THE MAIN ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA APPEAR TO HAVE
SUFFICIENT WATER RESOURCES AT THIS TIME.

THE OPERATIONAL U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS UTIRIK AND WOTJE OF THE RMI
REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL
4 OF 4). SAIPAN AND TINIAN OF THE CNMI REMAIN IN EXTREME DROUGHT D3-L
(LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4) AND ROTA EXTREME DROUGHT D3-S (SHORT-
TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). GUAM HAS IMPROVED TO SEVERE DROUGHT D2-S
(SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). CHUUK LAGOON AND FANANU ALONG WITH
YAP ARE IN SEVERE DROUGHT LEVEL D2-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4).
PALAU...KWAJALEIN/EBEYE AND WOLEAI ARE IN MODERATE DROUGHT D1-S (SHORT-
TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). OTHER ISLANDS REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY D0-S
(SHORT-TERM ABNORMALLY DRY).

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS...
UTIRIK REPORTED 1.15 INCH AND WOTJE REPORTED 0.45 INCH OF RAINFALL IN
JUNE SO FAR. A FEW PASSING TRADE-WIND SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
COMING WEEKS BUT THE FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY. MORE SHOWERS WILL START DEVELOPING OVER AREAS FROM
ENEWETAK AND BIKINI TO UTIRIK AND WOTJE TO KWAJALEIN/EBEYE...UJAE...
RONGELAP...AILUK AND MEJIT ISLAND BUT DROUGHT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MUCH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATES. AT EBEYE...HEALTH ISSUES RELATED
TO WATER PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

OTHER ISLANDS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
WEATHER IS CURRENTLY DRY AT MAJURO BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS MOVED OVER
THIS AREA IN THE PAST WEEKS. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE VARIABLE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE RMI. THIS INCLUDES MAJURO...ARNO...
MILI...JALUIT...AILINGALAPLAP AND MALOELAP AND OTHER SOUTHERN ATOLLS.
WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED IN THESE AREAS. MAJURO HAS RECEIVED
SUBSTANTIAL JUNE RAINFALL BUT DUE TO THEIR LARGE POPULATIONS...MAJURO
AND EBEYE SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR AND REGULATE FRESH WATER RESOURCES.

IT WAS REPORTED THAT DISCARDED CIGARETTES CAUSED SOME FIRES ON MAJURO.
THE MAJURO DUMP HAD A LARGE FIRE AND IS HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO ANOTHER.
GRASSLAND FIRES ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL OF THE DRY ISLETS...AND THEY CAN
SPREAD RAPIDLY WITH BRISK TRADE WINDS.

MARIANA ISLANDS...

THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)...
RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE RECENTLY AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY LOW OVER THE COMMONWEALTH
SINCE JANUARY AND RAINFALL MAY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH JUNE AT LEAST.
FOR SAIPAN...THE DRAW-DOWN OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES WILL STILL BE A
PROBLEM DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE EXTREME
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

GUAM...
THE RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED RECENTLY AND ISLAND CONVECTION PRODUCED SOME
SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS BUT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH JUNE AT LEAST. THE FIRE DANGER REMAINS EXTREME WITH A HIGH RISK
OF WILD FIRES ACROSS GUAM.

IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES...
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT 8N TO
10N...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF YAP AND CHUUK STATES. BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL HAS DEVELOPED IN JUNE OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA AND
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE.

SMALLER ISLANDS WITH LIMITED WATER SUPPLIES WILL BE MOST AT RISK IN THE
COMING WEEKS SINCE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION.
PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP ROOF TOPS AND CATCHMENT AREAS CLEAN AND CAREFULLY
MANAGE WATER RESOURCES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
RELATIVELY DRY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. PASSING SURFACE
TROUGHS AND TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAVE PRODUCED SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS
RECENTLY. DROUGHT REMAINS SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N. THE EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT. DESPITE THE LATE OCCURRENCE OF THE
EL NINO...THE WEATHER PATTERNS OVER MICRONESIA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
MONTHS HAVE PRODUCED EL NINO-LIKE WEATHER.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                   DEC-APR DEC-APR DEC-APR  MAY  JUNE   JUNE     JUNE
                            NORM    (%)          1-11  1-11NORM  (%)
RMI
UTIRIK               5.20  11.71    44     1.19   1.15    1.33    86
WOTJE               10.44  14.22    73     2.66   0.45    2.06    22
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE     15.29  25.21    61    10.71   1.57    2.88    55
WSO MAJURO          34.50  44.64    77    16.14   4.37    4.01   109
MILI                48.14  46.81   103    11.54   8.78    3.72   236
AILINGLAPLAP        28.39  33.92    84    10.28   0.85    4.00    21
JALUIT*             29.75  48.37    62     6.67   1.52    3.80    40

FSM (EAST TO WEST)
KOSRAE (SAWRS)      88.47  85.89   103   26.91    3.89   5.71     68
WSO POHNPEI         72.45  71.02   110    8.94    7.19   5.78    124
LUKUNOR             50.51  52.74    96    3.75    9.32   4.39    212
WSO CHUUK           56.45  49.45   114    4.74    3.84   4.48     86
POLOWAT**           16.54  34.05    49    2.19    4.79   3.96    121
WOLEAI ATOLL        28.51  39.78    72    2.96   10.05   4.58    219
ULITHI***           25.17  23.54   107    5.01    3.00   3.39     89
WSO YAP             35.95  33.63   107    7.15    4.28   4.84     88

REPUBLIC OF PALAU
WSO PALAU           37.85  53.19    71     6.78   7.94   6.25    127

MARIANAS
SAIPAN AP           10.05  14.62    69     5.78   0.50    1.65    30
TINIAN AP           12.27  16.76    73     3.93   0.64    1.85    35
ROTA AP             17.58  23.70    74     1.99   0.40    1.91    21
GUAM AP             20.82  21.82    95     2.61   1.06    2.60    41

*   JALUIT INSTRUMENT LOCATION MOVED AND CORRECTED IN APRIL
**  POLOWAT MISSING FEBRUARY RAINFALL FROM WUTIP
*** ULITHI RAINFALL ESTIMATED BASED ON WSO YAP DATA AND SATELLITE DATA

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BRIGHT SUNSHINE DURING THIS SEASON...AND ONLY
PATCHY CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL FURTHER STRESS WATER RESOURCES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
LOW RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT
FEW WEEKS. AREAS FROM UTIRIK TO ENEWETAK WILL RECEIVE ONLY A QUARTER TO
A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT
TIMES SOUTH OF 10N AND NORTH OF MAJURO. AREAS FROM KWAJALEIN/EBEYE TO
WOTJE AND MALOELAP COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT
WEEK AND 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR MAJURO AND THE
SOUTHERN RMI. RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM
1 TO 3 INCHES THE NEXT WEEK AND 3 TO 6 INCHES THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. MAJURO
IS CURRENTLY DRY BUT SHOULD START RECEIVING SHOWERS IN THE COMING DAYS.
WATER SUPPLIES ON THE MORE POPULATED ISLANDS OF MAJURO AND EBEYE MAY
CONTINUE TO BE STRESSED. PEOPLE ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES...
1. PEOPLE WITH CATCHMENTS NEED TO CLEAN ROOFS AND GUTTERS, AND
CATCHMENTS, BUT DON`T WASTE CATCHMENT WATER
2. CATCHMENT WATER SHOULD BE FOR DRINKING ONLY
3. WELL WATER WILL LIKELY BECOME BRACKISH AND SHOULD ONLY BE USED FOR
COOKING AND WASHING
4. BOIL WELL AND CATCHMENT WATER FOR DRINKING
5. SEA LEVELS WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE MARSHALLS UNTIL MAY OR JUNE. THIS
MEANS THAT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO PUMP WATER HARDER TO GET IT TO THE
SURFACE. BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PUMP AND DRAW SALT WATER INTO THE FRESH
WATER LENS. WHEN WATER IS SCARCE, HEALTH ISSUES SUCH AS PINK EYE AND
GASTRO-INTESTINAL PROBLEMS BECOME MORE COMMON AND MORE SERIOUS.
DEHYDRATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM DURING DROUGHT PERIODS.

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
DROUGHT WILL PERSIST BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE COMING
WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF
INCH IN THE NEXT WEEK AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH DURING THE NEXT
TWO WEEKS. GUAM COULD ALSO RECEIVE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS WHILE LOWER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. ISLANDS
FARTHER NORTH WILL RECEIVE ONLY PASSING SHOWERS.

SAIPAN IN PARTICULAR SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
GUAM COULD RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR ALL THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS. EXTREME FIRE DANGER
WILL CONTINUE.

THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES...
YAP IS CURRENTLY IN A DRY FLOW AND PALAU REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY BUT THE
RAINFALL PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER SOUTHERN MICRONESIA. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NEXT WEEK AND 3 TO 6
INCHES THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. DRIEST CONDITIONS OVER MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE WESTWARD TO 130E...INCLUDING
PARTS OF YAP AND CHUUK STATES...WHILE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF 5N.

LOOKING FORWARD...RAINFALL AND WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED AND
THE REMOTE AND SMALLER ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA WILL BE MOST AT RISK.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 27 JUNE 2019 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION
OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS...
HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO
APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING WARNING AND WATCH AREAS REMAIN FAR NORTH FROM THE
EQUATOR ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND ALONG THE EQUATOR TO BEYOND THE
DATE LINE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF
HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
MAJURO. ALSO THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF
WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN
GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 OR EMAILED
AT W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

SIMPSON/BUKUNT

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.