Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 050603
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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 PM CHST FRI JUL 22 2022

PMZ173-080600-
POHNPEI-
400 PM CHST FRI AUG 05 2022

...MODERATE DROUGHT LINGERS FOR KAPINGAMARANGI...

.SYNOPSIS:
La Nina continues with cooler than normal sea surface temperatures
along the equatorial Pacific and large-scale convection anchored across
the Maritime Continent (Indonesia and South East Asia). La Nina is
expected to round out the rest of the year.

The La Nina setup will maintain a sharp rainfall gradient near
Kapingamarangi the next several months with showery weather to the
north and drier conditions in the vicinity of Kapinga. A tricky
rainfall outlook is likely as overall rainfall teeters around the
threshold to meet most water needs (~8 inches / month). Some months are
likely to see drier weather with monthly rainfall around 3 to 5 inches
while other months see a better chance of reaching or exceeding 8
inches of rain per month.

Preliminary rainfall (inches) for select islands across Pohnpei
State. % of monthly normal rainfall based on 1991-2020 data.

              Apr        May       Jun       Jul      Aug

Kapinga        8.97      1.19      3.40      8.60      0.07
Nukuoro       20.25     18.62     12.62     21.65      1.63
WSO Pohnpei   28.86     22.32     18.02     26.66      1.81
Pingelap      25.04      7.14      8.66     21.82      1.23
Mwoakilloa    17.94     11.55     11.87     18.14      0.56

.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS:
*D1 Moderate drought* -- Kapingamarangi

For the latest drought map for the US Affiliated Pacific Islands:
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi

Public and private water tanks are above 50%.

.DROUGHT MITIGATION ACTIONS:
Eight 1,500 gallon water tanks were also shipped to Kapinga recently.
These water tanks will bolster water resources once they are installed.

.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK:
2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected through the third week of August.
Overall rainfall is expected to be inadequate (less than 8"/month) to
meet most water needs the next several months. This is supported by
seasonal model guidance and the ongoing La Nina climate pattern.
Residents of Kapinga are encouraged to conserve water as the large-
scale pattern is not favorable for plentiful rains.

.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE:
The next Drought Information Statement will be issued Friday, August
19, 2022 or sooner if necessary.

.RELATED WEBSITES:
-US Drought Monitor for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands-
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi
-National Weather Service Guam-
https://www.weather.gov/gum/Hydrology
-Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services-
https://www.weather.gov/peac
-Climate Prediction Center Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook-
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/
-Coral reef watch satellite monitoring-
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php

.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS:
This drought statement is a combined effort involving regional National
Weather Service offices, USAPI drought monitor team, Tropical Weather
Sciences, the Climate Prediction Center, PEAC Services, the
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, USAID
subregional offices and the NOAA/NESDIS coral reef watch program.

.QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS PRODUCT? PLEASE CONTACT:
National Weather Service
3232 Hueneme Road
Barrigada, GU 96913
http://www.weather.gov/gum
phone: 671-472-0953
e-mail: brandon.bukunt@noaa.gov / marcus.aydlett@noaa.gov

$$

Bukunt/Aydlett


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