Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 190338
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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST FRI FEB 19 2021

PMZ173-PMZ181-050400-
POHNPEI-MAJURO-
200 PM CHST FRI FEB 19 2021

...EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR KAPINGAMARANGI...
...INADEQUATE RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Steady rounds of showery weather have been confined to islands of
western Micronesia and a narrow ribbon of convergent trade-wind flow
across central to eastern Micronesia the past few weeks. Severe drought
(D2) is now in place across the northern Marshall Islands due to
several weeks of minimal rainfall. Dry conditions have also established
across the Marianas and islands of northern Chuuk state around 8N to 9N
recently. This includes the Hall Islands and the Namonuitos.

The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone continues to wave southward far
enough to brush Kapingamarangi with decent showers at times. These
pulses of shower activity are still separated by several days of dry
conditions. Extreme drought continues as rainfall is still inadequate
to meet most water needs. See the "local drought outlook" section below
for insight on rainfall expectations for Kapinga.

Recent rainfall (inches) across Micronesia:

                   Nov      Dec      Jan     Feb 1-18
RMI
WSO Majuro        14.99    16.71    11.58     3.62
Wotje             11.93     3.82     1.82     0.00
Kwajalein/Ebeye   12.95     4.02     2.34     1.61
Ailinglaplap      16.71    20.03     9.85     3.99
Jaluit             8.88    15.19     5.68     1.36

FSM
Kosrae airport    24.52    29.87    29.51    13.79
WSO Pohnpei       25.13    26.95    19.38     4.07
Nukuoro            8.55    15.13    21.62    11.26
Kapingamarangi     2.83     3.77     5.92     1.27
WSO Chuuk         13.45    20.47    11.56     7.55
Fananu            13.86    16.36     5.72     1.49
Lukunor            9.23    24.71    12.29    12.20
WSO Yap           17.27    16.99    12.85     4.61
Woleai            13.82     8.47     4.61    14.38
Ulithi            14.30    12.42     7.83     5.62

ROP
WSO Palau          9.97    15.82    10.42     6.12

Marianas
Guam airport      10.33     8.02     4.11     0.76
Rota airport       8.77     6.96     2.10     0.77
Tinian airport     7.04     2.45     2.32     1.78
Saipan airport     4.95     7.43     2.30     2.48

.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
*D3 Extreme short and long term drought*  -- Kapingamarangi

*D2 Severe short term drought* -- Marshall Islands near and north of 8N
               latitude. This includes but is not limited to Maloelap,
               Mejit, Likiep, Utirik, Wotje, Ujae, Lae, Lib, Wotho and
               some islets of Kwajalein atoll.

For the latest drought map for the US Affiliated Pacific Islands visit
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi

Kapingamarangi: WSO Pohnpei reports all 6 reserve water catchment tanks
are still full. The island`s large concrete water tank is slightly
under 50% capacity. Well water remains unsafe to drink. Taro and
breadfruit crops are in very poor condition. A new State of Emergency
Declaration was issued Jan 29, 2021 to address the food shortage on
Kapingamarangi.

Northern Marshall Islands: WSO Majuro has received reports of low water
supply levels across several RMI atolls north of 8.5N latitude.

.DROUGHT MITIGATION ACTIONS...
Residents of Kapinagamarangi have taken advantage of recent rainfall
with reserve tanks filled to capacity. A ship will bring food and other
supplies to Kapingamarangi next month.

.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...

Kapingamarangi: Dry conditions will continue at least the next couple
weeks. Spotty trade wind showers the next day or two will decrease with
a much drier pattern in place for at least the next week. Weak trade-
wind disturbances will generate spotty showers around the end of February
but rainfall is expected to remain inadequate for needs, and below
normal. The ITCZ will be relatively inactive in the coming weeks across
the region. Numerical models indicate around 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall
the next 10 days.

Northern Marshall Islands: Dry conditions over the last several weeks will
continue as a very dry trade wind pattern is firmly in place across the
region. Rainfall levels are expected to remain below normal and inadequate
for needs across the central and northern Marshall Islands. Numerical
forecast models indicate below a half inch of rain over the next 10 days.

.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
The next Drought Information Statement will be issued Friday, March 5,
2021 or sooner if necessary.

.RELATED WEBSITES:
-US Drought Monitor for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands-
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi
-National Weather Service Guam-
https://www.weather.gov/gum/Hydrology
-Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services-
https://www.weather.gov/peac
-Climate Prediction Center Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook-
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/
-Coral reef watch satellite monitoring-
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php

.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
This drought statement is a combined effort involving regional National
Weather Service offices, Richard Heim and the USAPI drought monitor
team at NCEI, Chip Guard at Tropical Weather Sciences, the Climate
Prediction Center, PEAC services, the International Research Institute
for Climate and Society, Mark Lander at University of Guam, USAID
subregional offices and the NOAA/NESDIS coral reef watch program.

.QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS PRODUCT? PLEASE CONTACT:
National Weather Service
3232 Hueneme Road
Barrigada, GU 96913
http://www.weather.gov/gum
phone: 671-472-0953
e-mail: brandon.bukunt@noaa.gov / marcus.aydlett@noaa.gov

$$

Bukunt/Aydlett


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