Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 241648
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

16Z surface analysis shows the cold front in northeast New Mexico
south of Tucumcari. As the lee trough deepens this afternoon,
northeast New Mexico will likely see a return to dry/breezy
southwesterly winds. However, with some of these locations seeing
elevated conditions for less time, the elevated area has been
adjusted southward. The eastern edge has also been modified to
account for expected dryline position this afternoon. Please see the
previous discussion for greater detail.

..Wendt.. 05/24/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun May 24 2020/

...Synopsis...
Weak troughing over the Rockies and Southwest will slowly evolve to
the east, while a mid-level jet will dive southeast across the Great
Basin and western Arizona. At the surface, a cold front will sag
south across the Front Range, while a second front moves into
Arizona from the west. Gusty winds and a dry boundary layer will
promote elevated fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico
and into the Four Corners.

...New Mexico and the southern Four Corners...
The mid-level trough will continue to the east with winds aloft
weakening to around 20 kt. Some high clouds will likely hamper the
heating through the day. This should reduce mixing, but sufficient
vertical transport is still likely to reach the surface. Surface
winds of 20 to 25 mph are expected to accompany RH of 10-15%, which
will support elevated fire weather conditions. A more favored
corridor of fire weather potential will likely develop behind a lee
cyclone and dryline across eastern New Mexico. However, the limited
area and uncertainty on the position of the dryline, and the sagging
cold front from the north, preclude the addition of any critical
areas.

...Northeast...
Brief, locally elevated conditions may occur in parts of
southern/central Maine. Cloud cover and cooler temperatures behind a
recent cold front will limit the threat, and no elevated areas were
included.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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