Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
FNUS21 KWNS 151611

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019

Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

The forecast remains largely on track, with slight adjustments made
to the elevated area in southern California to reflect where the
latest high-resolution model guidance depicts poorest RH recovery.
Please see the previous forecast below for more details.

..Squitieri.. 11/15/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019/

A progressive, amplified synoptic pattern will remain in place
across the Lower 48, with shortwave troughs located across the
Southeast and also just offshore west of California and Baja
California.  Between these two systems, low-amplitude ridging aloft
along the Continental Divide will shift quickly to the east through
the forecast period, reaching the Ohio Valley by 12Z Saturday.  At
the surface, a weak trough will persist across coastal areas of
California, and high pressure will build into portions of the
Pacific Northwest late in the day.  The resultant pressure gradient
will be enough to cause offshore flow to develop tonight and elevate
fire weather conditions.  Elsewhere, only locally elevated fire
weather is expected across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity today as
lee surface troughing locally enhances surface wind fields in that

...Southern California...
An elevated fire weather delineation has been introduced for this
update.  Later tonight, strengthening surface flow will commence
within typical terrain-favored areas, with 15-25 mph northerly flow
and 15-30% RH values becoming common.  The region has also remained
rain free over the past 90+ days, with dry fuels supporting a risk
of fire spread.  These conditions will likely continue into
D2/Saturday with poor overnight recovery and continued offshore
gradient in place.

...Please see for graphic product...

$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.