Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 171001
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Lox River...SFWMD
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
601 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on September 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Good morning. An increase in the southerly surface
and transport winds will produce Very Good dispersion today. Wind
direction will be predominantly out of the south, possibly South
Southwest this afternoon. There may be a wind shift out of the
Southeast after 5 pm behind a sea breeze.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1700, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 6 to 15 mph early in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-1600 ft AGL increasing to 3800-4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 16 mph.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 24 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 42 late in the morning increasing
                    to 52 late in the morning decreasing to 38.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 4 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 1 late in the morning increasing
                    to 3 late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........39  39  48  48  48  58  58  58  60
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   3
Temp............81  85  88  89  90  91  90  90  89
RH..............85  75  68  66  62  60  62  64  66
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   10  13  14  14  14  15  16  16
20 FT wind gust.8   14  17  18  18  18  21  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.7 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  14  16  16  15  14  13  13  12
Dispersion idx..24  42  55  55  53  49  42  38  34
LVORI...........4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers early in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 77.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......1200-3000 ft AGL decreasing to 200-900 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....29 decreasing to 6 early in the evening.
LVORI...............4 increasing to 6 late in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........60     62     62     57     40     40
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).30     20     20     10     10     10
LAL.............3      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............87     83     81     79     78     77
RH..............70     80     85     91     91     94
20 ft wind......S 14   S 8    S 5    S 5    SW 6   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.18
Mix hgt (ft)....3000   1500   900    500    300    200
Transport wind..S 12   SW 10  S 10   S 9    SW 8   SW 9
Dispersion idx..31     7      7      6      5      6
LVORI...........3      4      4      6      6      6

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......300-1500 ft AGL increasing to 3100-4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....8 increasing to 18 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 33 late in the morning increasing
                    to 45 early in the afternoon increasing to 50
                    decreasing to 40 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 4 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 1 in the afternoon increasing to
                    3 late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........49        32        32        50
Weather cov.....          CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        50        50        50
LAL.............1         3         3         3
Temp............78        80        88        89
RH..............94        88        68        66
20 FT wind......SW 6      S 6       S 9       S 9
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1500      3700      4200
Transport wind..SW 9      SW 9      SW 10     SW 10
Dispersion idx..6         18        42        48
LVORI...........6         4         1         1

$$
Forecaster...Kelly
Requested by...Gene Colwell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2012698.0/MLB
.DELDT 09/17/20
.EMAIL Gcolwell@sfwmd.gov


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