Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 211011

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
610 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters off the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from
05N16W to 01N25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 60 nm
N of the ITCZ axis between 18W and 20W. Similar convection is also
seen from 1.5N to 3N between 24W and 32W, and near the western end
on the ITCZ from 3S to 1N between 36W and 39W.


High pressure of 1020 mb located near 28N92W dominates the Gulf
region. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over the eastern
Gulf where the most recent scatterometer pass indicates the
presence of fresh W to NW winds, particularly N of 26N E of 87W.
Light to gentle winds are seen near the high pressure while
moderate to locally fresh return flow is observed W of 95W. The
high pressure will remain across the Gulf waters through midweek
before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move
into the NW Gulf on Thu.

A surface trough will develop near the NW Yucatan Peninsula during
the evening hours and drift westward across the SW Gulf where it
will eventually dissipate during the morning hours. Fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds will accompany this trough each night
into the early morning hours.


A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias
a Dios, Nicaragua. Mainly low clouds with some shower activity
are associated with the frontal boundary, forecast to dissipate
today. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade winds
flow are noted elsewhere across the basin. Mainly moderate
northerly winds follows the front. Moderate to fresh trade winds
are noted per scatterometer data over the eastern and the south-
central Caribbean, and also across the waters E of the Lesser
Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the
Caribbean and the Tropical North Atlantic, with the exception of
fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Trades will
slowly diminish through Wednesday night, then increasing back
slightly towards the end of next week.


A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N72W, then continues
SW across the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. A band of showers
with scattered showers and thunderstorms is related to the front.
Part of this convective activity is currently affecting the
central and SE Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed W of the
front, and runs from 30N77W to near 25N80W. Some cloudiness with
isolated showers is noted near the trough axis. Fresh to locally
strong southerly winds are ahead of the front, forecast to reach
from near 31N70W to the SE Bahamas today where it will stall and
gradually dissipate. The remnants of the front will linger along
70W through much of the week.

Farther east, another cold front enters the forecast waters near
31N36W and stretches southwest to near 22N41W where it begins to
dissipate along 21N45W to 21N50W to 22N58W. This front is associated
with a 1017 mb low pressure system that has just moved into the
forecast area, and now is located near 30N42W. This system is
generating scattered showers and isolated and thunderstorms.
In addition, this low is producing gale force winds just N of the
forecast region, and fresh to strong northerly winds over the
forecast waters N of 27N between 42W and 48W based on recent
scatterometer data. An altimeter pass indicates sea heights of up
to 14 ft near the low center. The low pressure is forecast to meander
near 26N50W over the next 48-72 hours. The associated cold front
will dissipate over the next 24 hours. The pressure gradient
between the low and high pressure to the north will keep an area
of fresh to strong winds roughly N of 26N between 40W and 60W
today and Mon. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic

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