202
AXNT20 KNHC 040854
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southward to 06N18W. The
ITCZ is noted from 06N18W to 04N39W. Scattered moderate
convection is found from 01N to 05N and east of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep tropical moisture interacting with outflow boundaries from
overnight convection over Texas is leading to scattered
thunderstorms offshore the upper Texas coast. Broad subtropical
ridging dominates the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds are noted south of 25N and west of 90W,
with locally winds occurring off Yucatan. Seas in these waters
are 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered just E of Florida and lower pressures in the western Gulf
will support moderate to locally fresh winds over the majority of
the Gulf of Mexico into late next week. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse at night into late next week near the northern
and western Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. Haze due to
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW
and west-central Gulf sections.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough extends from the western Atlantic SW into the
central Caribbean. This trough is providing lift which combined
with rich tropical moisture is leading to scattered showers and
thunderstorms E of 70W, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat to
flooding to Puerto Rico. See local weather advisories for more
information.  Mariners should also be aware of the potential for
strong wind gusts and locally rough seas in the area of showers
and thunderstorms.

The rest of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the SE Caribbean,
while mainly moderate winds and 2-4 ft are observed in the NW
Caribbean and Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds in the NW
Caribbean will continue through Mon night. Similar winds will
occur nocturnally in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are expected elsewhere through the forecast period. A
surface trough that extends from the western Atlantic into the NE
Caribbean continues to support numerous thunderstorms E of 70W.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western Atlantic is under the influence of a weak subtropical
ridge centered between Bermuda the SE US coast. A generally dry
airmass maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions west of 68W.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are
found south of 27N and west of 65W. Farther east, a surface
trough extends from 30N49W to the Leeward Islands, producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms within 120 nm on both sides
of the trough axis.

The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a
1021 mb high pressure system near the island of Madeira. Moderate
to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present
south of a line from the westernmost of the Canary Islands to the
Windward Islands. The strongest winds are occurring off Western
Sahara. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will shift eastward
through the weekend as a cold front drops southward over the
eastern and central waters. The front will shift east of the area
Sun night. High pressure will then settle over the area through
Wed night.

$$
Konarik