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653
AXNT20 KNHC 151753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1253 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 18N southward.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers surround the wave.
The tropical wave is moving through an area of upper level
cyclonic wind flow, which by itself is helping to spread
rainshowers in the Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward. Precipitation
with the monsoon trough is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W
to 04N22W to 04N30W, and to 05N37W and 05N40W. Another branch of
the ITCZ is along 07N53W 08N58W 10N60W and 11N62W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 10N between
22W and 46W. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening
precipitation are from 03N to 08N from 14W eastward to Africa.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N southward between 46W
and 55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 07N to 09N between 56W and 59W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 09N to 12N between 59W and
64W in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. This precipitation is
reaching parts of NE Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, and the other
nearby islands of the SE Caribbean Sea. Other rainshowers are
possible also from 15N southward between 60W and 67W, in the SE
Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the
period that ended at 15/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are
1.93 in Trinidad,

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure center that is
near 32N79W, to Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, toward Key
West, and beyond NW Cuba, into the NW Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers
are possible to the east of the line from the Florida Big Bend
near 30N85W to 25N90W to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W.

Surface high pressure has developed across the entire area that is
to the west of the cold front. A 1028 mb high pressure center is
in SW Louisiana. A 1031 mb high pressure center is in Mexico near
24N99W. The ridge extends from Louisiana, to the coastal plains of
Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. STORM-
FORCE winds are being observed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of Mexico near 16N95W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 15/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.63 in
Merida in Mexico.

Strong to near gale force winds, and high seas, continue
behind a cold front that is extending from SW Florida to NW Cuba.
The wind speeds and the sea heights will decrease gradually
behind the exiting front. Building surface high pressure, in the
wake of the front, will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico waters
through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 13N to 26N between 66W and 83W. A surface
trough cuts across Hispaniola along 71W, from 14N in the Caribbean
Sea to 21N in the Atlantic Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers cover the waters and islands from 14N
in the Caribbean Sea to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and
77W.

A cold front passes across NW Cuba, to 20N85W in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Honduras near 16N85W. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are to the west of 83W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 15/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.93 in
Trinidad, 0.28 in Guadeloupe, 0.21 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.16
in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.09 in Bermuda, and 0.06 in San Juan
in Puerto Rico.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 75W in Colombia and
81W/82W on the southern side of Panama. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 13N southward between 75W
and 85W in SE Nicaragua, and from 05N to Costa Rica and Panama
from 85W eastward in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are observed to the west of
a cold front that is reaching from western Cuba to central
Honduras. The front will move southeastward slowly, eventually
stalling from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by Saturday. E
swell will maintain sea heights at 8 feet or higher for the
tropical N Atlantic Ocean through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure center that is
near 32N79W, to Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, toward Key
West, and beyond NW Cuba, into the NW Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers
are possible to the east of the line that passes through the
Florida Big Bend near 30N85W to 25N90W, to the coast of Mexico
near 21N97W.

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N57W to
31N63W to 32N68W, to the south of Bermuda. A warm front continues
from 32N68W to 33N74W, to a 1011 mb low pressure center that is
near 32N79W off the coast of South Carolina. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 30N northward
from 50W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the
period that ended at 15/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are
0.09 in Bermuda,

An upper level trough passes through 32N14W, across the Canary
Islands, to 25N17W, to a cyclonic circulation center that is near
18N29W, and to 15N34W. A shear axis continues to 16N48W and
18N53W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 360 nm to
the north of the shear axis. A cold front passes through 32N13W to
the Canary Islands near 28N17W, to 27N20W, and to 26N30W. A
dissipating cold front is along 26N30W 26N38W. Rainshowers are
possible from 24N northward between Africa and 40W.

Surface high pressure in the NW Atlantic Ocean will shift ESE
today, ahead of a cold front that is moving off the NE Florida
coast. The front will reach from 31N74W to the central Bahamas
and central Cuba late tonight into Friday. A surface trough that
crosses Hispaniola will move into the SE Bahamas today and stall,
before losing identity ahead of the cold front for Friday and
Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT