Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 160552

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
151 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


A tropical wave extends across the West African coast with an
axis along 16W from 17N southward, moving west at about 10 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring
inland, within 250 nm west of the wave axis between 6N-12N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 42W from
20N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave axis.

Another tropical wave is analyzed over the central Atlantic, with
axis along 50W from 12N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. At this
time, scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 72W from
20N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted mostly on the west side of the wave from 13N-18N between


The monsoon trough passes through the Mauritania coast near 20N16W
to 07N49W. The ITCZ is from 07N49W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along the ITCZ from 05N-10N between 44W-60W.


Post Tropical Cyclone Barry is centered over northwest Arkansas,
with outer bands of convection still reaching the NW Gulf waters.
This activity is mostly north of 26N and west of 90W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1019 mb high centered near 30N83W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have developed over the FL Peninsula and northwest Cuba. Most of
the activity has moved offshore in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Scatterometer data shows mostly gentle winds across the northeast
Gulf, while moderate winds prevail across the central Gulf and in
the Bay of Campeche, associated with the diurnal trough currently
developing inland over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Remnant winds and seas associated with Barry will diminish over
the northern Gulf this evening. A high pressure ridge will reside
near the northern Gulf coast through Sat night. Gentle to moderate
E to SE winds will generally prevail across the basin, except
that winds will be fresh to strong to the NW of the Yucatan
peninsula during the evening and overnight hours.


Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
wave traversing and approaching the Caribbean.

Scattered moderate convection associated with the tropical wave
along 88W is enhancing convection across the Gulf of Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, with convection
reaching the adjacent waters south of 20N-14N and west of 83W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the
pacific monsoon trough across Colombia, and the northern coast of
Panama and Costa Rica. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh
trade winds across most of the Caribbean, light winds in the SW
basin, and gentle winds in the NW basin.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period.
Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will affect the Gulf of
Honduras Wed night through Thu night. A tropical wave near 73W
will cross the western Caribbean Wed and Thu. A surge of fresh to
strong winds and building seas will accompany this wave in the
Caribbean. The next tropical wave will approach the Windward
Islands Wed.


Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves traversing the basin.

A surface trough enters the western Atlantic waters from 30N77W
to 29N77W with scattered showers in the vicinity. To the east, a
persistent 1019 mb low is centered near 29N67W with scattered
showers also. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of the
basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high near 33N38W. Scatterometer data
shows moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are seen along
the west coast of Africa, north of 23N and east of 27W.

High pressure dominating the basin will maintain gentle to moderate
E to SE winds over the Bahamas. The high will be strong enough to
generate fresh to strong trades N of Hispaniola through Fri night,
primarily during the evening hours.

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