Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 071732

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.


Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N60w to
a 1013 mb low near 27N75W. A cold front extends from this low to
near 19N87W. The cold front will move SE through Mon, while the
low slides NE along the front and deepens across the western
Atlantic through tonight. High pressure north of the region will
act to increase northerly winds behind the front to gale force NW
of the low pres late this afternoon through tonight from 29N-31N
between 64W-71W, where seas will build to 10-14 ft. The low and
gale force winds will lift N of the area by early Mon afternoon.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building behind a cold
front that will move SE across the western Atlantic the next few
days will increase the pressure gradient across the south central
Caribbean tonight through midweek. Winds within 90 nm of the coast
of Colombia are expected to increase to gale force Mon night, and
then again Tue night. Seas will reach 12 ft or higher during the
period of peak winds.

For more information, please refer the Atlantic High Seas
forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:


The monsoon trough extends off the coast of W Africa near 10N14W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 00N30W to 01S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough
from 02N-08N between 11W-21W. Similar convection is noted near
the ITCZ from 03S-02N between 30W-50W.


Strong high pressure building over the lower Mississippi Valley
is currently supporting fresh to strong NE winds over the eastern
Gulf E of 88W and moderate NE winds over the western Gulf. Seas of
8 to 10 ft are occurring over the southeastern Gulf. The strong
winds over the eastern Gulf are expected to become E to NE and
continue into Wednesday night. Southeast return flow will develop
across the northern Gulf Thursday.


A cold front is over central Cuba and extends over the Caribbean
near 22N82W to 19N87W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
within 90 nm of this front. Fresh to strong north to northeast
winds are north of the front, while light to gentle winds are
occurring over the remainder of the western Caribbean. Mainly
moderate to fresh winds are occurring over the central Caribbean,
with locally strong winds near the Colombia coast. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds are over the eastern Caribbean.

Wind will increase across the basin tonight as high pressure
builds north of the region. Winds will pulse to gale force off
the coast of Colombia Mon night and Tue night. The cold front
will move SE into Tuesday, when it will reach from Haiti to
Jamaica. Strong NE winds and building seas will prevail behind
the front over the western Caribbean.

Of note...A week-long period of intermittent heavy rains is
expected over Ecuador, SW Colombia and northern Peru in
association with a robust wet pulse of the Madden Julian
Oscillation, arriving to the area this weekend. Rainfall totals
of 200-300 mm (8-12 in) are expected in coastal Ecuador and SW
Colombia, and 100-200 mm (4-8 in) of rainfall are expected over
northern Peru and the Eje Cafetero region of Colombia. Please
refer to the forecasts of your local meteorological offices for
more details.


A stationary front extends from 31N65W to 1013 mb low pressure
near 27N75W. A cold front extends from this low to central Cuba
near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of either
side of these fronts east of 73W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
are north of the fronts, where seas are from 7-10 ft. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of the Azores high,
which is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds
east of 55W. Seas are 7 to 13 ft with a component of longer
period NW swell.

Strong N to NE winds behind the front will prevail into
Monday night as the low moves NE and out of the area. Gales will
develop on the west side of the low this afternoon and continue on
Monday. By Tuesday, the front will slow down and weaken from
22N65W to the Haiti Dominican Republic border. Strong high
pressure will build north of the front and support strong NE winds
south of 27N through Wednesday.

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