Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 231146
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A recent scatterometer pass detected gale-force winds over the
eastern Gulf from 26N-27.5N between 85W-87W overnight. These
conditions will continue through the morning hours. A cold front
is entering the northwest Gulf as of 09Z. Gale-force NW to N
winds are expected behind the front over the waters from Texas to
Veracruz, mainly W of 93W. These winds will follow the front
through the next 24 hours. For additional information, please read
the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Strong high pressure north of the area will maintain strong NE
winds over much of the Caribbean through mid week, with gale-force
winds expected near the coast of Colombia each night through at
least tonight. For additional information, please read the High
Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC.

...Gale Warnings in the SW N Atlantic...

A cold front will move off the Florida coast into the SW N
Atlantic on Thu. SW gale-force winds are forecast on Thu morning
ahead of the front N of 29N and W of 74W with seas 10 to 16 feet.
These winds will continue east of the front as it moves east
across the Atlantic through Fri. For additional information,
please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Winds Expected Near the Coast of Morocco...

Meteo France is forecasting gale-force winds today near the coast
of Morocco in the marine zone called AGADIR. The Meteo France
outlook for Thu calls for the possibility of gales in AGADIR. For
additional information, please visit the Meteo France website at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is
north of the ITCZ from 00N-05N between 25W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1038 mb surface high centered over the northeast Atlantic
extends a ridge southward over the Southeast U.S. into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening low pressure system is over the
south-central U.S. The pressure gradient generated between the
high and low pressure systems is currently inducing strong to
gale-force winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Refer to the
section above for information about the Gale Warning in effect
and the warnings in the forecast for today.

The cold front will continue moving off the Texas coast this
morning. Showers are thunderstorms are likely over the Gulf of
Mexico prior to and along with the frontal passage. NW-N gale
winds are expected over the western Gulf of Mexico today behind
the front. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf by Thu as
the front moves southeast of the region. Another cold front will
move off the Texas coast by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Typical scattered trade winds showers are noted across the basin.
Strong high pressure north of the area is inducing widespread
fresh to strong trade winds over most of the Caribbean. Expect
for these winds to prevail through Thu, with gale-force winds
pulsing overnight off of the Colombia`s coast. See the section
above for more information about the Gale Warning currently in
effect. Expect seas well over 8 feet for large portions of the
Caribbean, highest from 10N-16N between 74W-80W, where 10-15 ft
seas are expected. Farther east, large NW swell will move into
Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands by tonight. Winds and
seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure shifts
east ahead of another cold front. This front is expected to move
into the northwest Caribbean by late Thu, and will stall and
dissipate from central Cuba to central Honduras by late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic. To the east, a
cold front extends from 32N48W to 24N55W to 21N65W. It continues
as a stationary front from 21N65W to 21N75W. A surface trough is
just east of the front from 25N50W to 22N57W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted E of the front, mainly N of 26N between 43W-
47W. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic.

The cold front over the central Atlantic will weaken today. High
pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through
the day before retreating eastward ahead of the next cold front
moving off the coast of Florida by early Thu. Gale-force winds
will prevail N of 29N ahead of the front on Thu. See the section
above for more details. The front will stall and weaken from
Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat. Low pressure may develop along the
front Sat near the northern Bahamas and move northeast.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA



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