Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 140625
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
125 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over New England will move off the
coast, allowing temperatures to moderate today, but they will
still be below normal for the middle of November. Even milder
weather is forecast for Friday, but then another strong cold
front will deliver unseasonably cold temperatures Friday night
through Saturday night. An ocean storm may impact the region
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
120 AM update...

Ocean effect cloudiness continued to flirt with the eastern MA
coast from Cape Ann to Cape Cod overnight, with scattered to
broken low cloudiness. However, the threat for snow showers is
diminishing.

Otherwise, high and middle level cloudiness has begun to
overspread the region from the west. Temperatures, which were
mainly in the teens and lower 20s had begun to level off.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves offshore. Winds become light southerly,
which would also result in a slight increase in lower level
humidity. This layer of increased humidity is very shallow and
low, so the most likely outcome would be drizzle or very light
showers. Temperatures will be critical to determining
precipitation type. Not much humidity in the dendritic growth
zone, so thinking rain or freezing rain or drizzle will be most
likely. Based on current timing, most of any precipitation
should be rain during Thursday.

The warm advection pattern continues into Thursday night,
leading to a continued risk for showers Thursday night across
southeastern New England. More cloudiness should result at a
minimum.

This aspect or precipitation type will need to be monitored
closely with later forecasts. Temperatures remain below normal
through this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Mainly dry with seasonable temps Fri
* Turning much colder again Fri night into Sat night
* An ocean storm may impact SNE Sun night/Mon with rain and coastal
  wind along with pockets of ice or snow possible across the interior

Friday into Saturday...

Still appears a robust mid level low/shortwave moves across
southeastern Canada and northern New England. While the parent
low pressure should remain to our north, a strong cold front
should push through our region later Friday. Expecting much
colder air to arrive Friday night into Saturday, but not quite
as cold as we were Wednesday morning. Gusty N winds will result
in wind chills in the single numbers and teens late Friday
night and Saturday morning. Expecting a mainly dry frontal
passage Friday night with mostly sunny skies Saturday.

Sunday into Wednesday...

It appears dry weather will hang on through Sunday as high
pressure lingers across northern New England and the Maritimes.
This should delay the arrival of moisture associated with a low
pressure meandering up the coast. Lots of track and timing
uncertainty remains with respect to this low pressure.
Maintained a rather broad period of precipitation chances from
late Sunday into Wednesday. However, thinking it will not be
precipitating this entire time. Forecast changes are likely with
later forecasts.

Based on timing, some icing, or even snow, will be a concern at
times. More details with later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

0620Z update...

Short Term /through Friday/...

Overnight...High confidence. VFR. Only exception is areas of
MVFR ceilings on outer Cape Cod overnight. Chance of a flurry
there.

Thursday...Moderate confidence. VFR early. Then MVFR ceilings
developing with areas of drizzle and light rain showers in the
afternoon, possibly mixed with snow in central and northeast MA.
Local IFR possible late in the day.

Thursday night...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR, with local
MVFR possible in -SHRA. Breezy towards the coasts.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance RA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA, chance SN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 30 kt. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters overnight and moves farther
offshore during the day. Winds and seas diminish as this high
pressure passes by. Increasing southwest winds Thursday into
Thursday night, which will lead to building seas.

Small Craft Advisories have been allowed to expire. However,
additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for
some of the waters Thursday night, especially the outer coastal
waters.

Low risk for scattered light snow showers east of Cape Cod and
Nantucket overnight. Then scattered rain showers Thursday into
Thursday night. Showers could be strong enough to reduce
visibility, but should remain above 3 nm.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to
10 ft.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Sunday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to
11 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday Night through Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with
gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Max Temps for Wednesday Nov 13 (all were broken)

Boston      33 - 36/1874
Hartford    32 - 33/1911
Providence  32 - 37/1911
Worcester   26 - 32/1962,2013

Record Low Min Temps for Thursday Nov 14

Boston      16/1905
Hartford    15/1986
Providence  16/1905
Worcester   10/1986

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/BW/GAF
MARINE...Belk/GAF
CLIMATE...Staff


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