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FXUS62 KFFC 011412 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1012 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022



...Morning Update...

.UPDATE...

The area generally along and south of I-20 remains socked in with
low-level/mid-level cloud cover this morning, while isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms have developed north of I-20
where the lower cloud deck is more scattered and high clouds are
less dense. There is a 500 mb vort max over north GA noted on SPC
mesoanalysis and is co-located with SBCAPE of 1500 J/kg, so
expecting to see more of these showers begin to produce lightning
over the next couple of hours.

Only made minor tweaks to T, Td, RH, and PoPs to account for
trends thus far this morning.

Previous discussions follow...

Martin


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 732 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022/

..Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

Clouds and some patchy showers continue to hang on in northern
and eastern GA, while some clearing has developed across central
GA this morning. Very moist, tropical airmass is still in place
across the region as moisture continues to be pumped into the
southeast from both the Atlantic and the Gulf. Shallow wave is
analyzed pushing into the Georgia coastline within the TPW as it
pushes round the off- shore high pressure, which is likely aiding
some ongoing convection on the shoreline. Expectation is that we
will see some additional morning cloudiness develop across the
region as moisture advection continues and overnight inversion
continues to slowly establish itself. Some showers or even a quick
storm or downpour will be possible across all of north and
central GA through the morning hours as well, though not
confidence enough in seeing more than slight chance coverage till
at least sunrise to add in those PoPs.

Convective models are definitely struggling a bit given the lack
of a real, major forcing mechanism for much of the convection, so
we have quite an array of solutions this morning where some
various model deficiencies are likely showing themselves, such as
overmixing of BL moisture or simply not being able to resolve
updrafts properly on the smaller scales of summer time "popcorn"
storms. Given copious surface moisture (helping drive PWATs near
2"), even with poor lapse rates aloft from repeated days of latent
heat release, expect we will see scattered to likely
thunderstorms through the afternoon across most of the area amid
some decent instability that may be on the higher end of the HREF
ensemble spread. Best chances will be closer to the coast where
tropical wave along with seabreeze and additional outflows may aid
in kicking things off. One caveat is how cloudy is does get in
the morning, and if things can clear afterwards, as coverage will
be dependent to an extent on the heating. Even with decent
instability, would not anticipate much in the way of severe,
though certainly can`t rule out a storm or two getting a little
feisty. Little to no shear and moist profiles limit updraft
lifetimes and don`t add any downward acceleration or mixing
potential of stronger winds aloft, but a larger storm core still
could fall with some force.

Tonight into tomorrow looks much the same, as there is little to
change our pattern. Copious moisture remains around, so expect
another day of afternoon thunderstorms to evening thunderstorms.

Lusk


LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Still no main change in the persistently moist and conditionally
unstable airmass through the period as much of the larger scale
dynamics/forcing stays north of the region and we can`t seem to
shake getting out of the soup. Early to mid next week we look to
be on the eastern side of a broad/weak upper ridge but this isn`t
expected to suppress convective potential. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are thus possible each day driven
largely by diurnal heating, though subtle perturbations or remnant
outflows may aid in convective development at other times that
are very difficult to predict. The continued high PWAT and
marginal CAPE environment will allow for the potential of a few
strong to severe storms each day with the main threats of locally
heavy rain, enhanced downdrafts aided by hydrometeor loading with
strong to damaging winds, and frequent lightning.

Max temps overall near seasonable norms through Tuesday with
mainly upper 80s to low 90s then slightly warmer for Wed/Thu with
generally low to mid 90s.

Baker


AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Some low cigs around, but only AHN has gone to either MVFR or IFR
this morning. Conditions should quickly improve with afternoon
cigs SCT to BKN in the 035-055 range, with some higher cigs.
Shower and TSRA chances should quickly ramp up by 15Z time frame
and carry through the evening. Winds will be E to ESE and mostly
light. Could see wind shift at KATL to west side tomorrow morning.
Tonight and tomorrow look to be very similar to today, with lower
cigs possible in morning and afternoon storms.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium tomorrow morning. High all other elements.

Lusk


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  90  71  91 /  40  50  20  50
Atlanta         72  87  73  89 /  30  60  20  50
Blairsville     64  83  66  84 /  30  60  20  60
Cartersville    69  89  71  90 /  30  50  20  50
Columbus        72  89  72  90 /  40  60  20  60
Gainesville     69  87  71  89 /  30  50  20  50
Macon           71  90  71  94 /  50  60  20  60
Rome            70  90  72  92 /  20  50  20  50
Peachtree City  69  88  70  88 /  30  60  20  50
Vidalia         72  88  72  92 /  40  70  20  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...Martin