000
FXUS62 KFFC 301901
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023

The low pressure system located off the coast of North Carolina
continues to drift northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast allowing
for a wedge of slightly cooler than average air to infiltrate
northeast Georgia. The wedge front has surged across much of the
forecast area and remains draped across our southwestern counties.
At the time of this writing, a few isolated showers have begun to
pop along the coast and eastern Georgia. The CAMs suggest a few
isolated showers will be possible across the area this afternoon and
evening, though the HRRR seems to have the best handle on the
current radar trends. If showers and thunderstorms get going this
afternoon, they will be primarily cold pool driven propagating east
to west as the wedge continues to establish itself. The best
locations for rain chances will be across eastern and northern
Georgia today, though coverage is expected to be isolated at best.
With QPF less than a tenth of an inch, any showers/storms that get
going are not expected to be particularly efficient rainmakers. A
general thunderstorm risk has been appropriately diagnosed by SPC as
upper level support is lacking. With SBCAPE around 750 J/kg this
afternoon and evening, there will be enough instability to support a
few thunderstorms, but no severe weather is anticipated.

As a low in the northern Gulf Coast develops this afternoon and
evening, moisture throughout the atmospheric column will gradually
increase over central Georgia through Wednesday. This will help
bring the chance for afternoon scattered thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon as this moisture overruns the wedge. A general
thunderstorm risk is in place again over the forecast area and
widespread severe weather us not expected at this time. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to primarily be focused across central
Georgia generally south of I-20 and across the north Georgia
mountains. Max high temperatures today and tomorrow will be slightly
below average in the mid 70s and mid 80s, but will be kicking off a
warming trend that will extend into the long term forecast.

KAL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023

Maintaining a rather uneventful longterm outlook through at least
Monday morning. Upper level flow will continue to remain light as
jet streaks remain over the GoM. Wedging persists through at
least the weekend as a combination of the slow moving surface low
off the Carolinas and a High over the Northeast drive
Northeasterly flow. Light forcing from the wedge may be sufficient
for isolated scattered convection. However, temperatures should
remain at or just below normal with highs in the mid to low 80s
for much of the region. Moving into the weekend, the wedge begins
to break down as the low off of the East Coast weakens and moves
out. Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will begin to climb, with
highs reaching into the upper 80s and possibly the low 90s. The
potential for diurnally driven convection continues through this
time. For Monday and Tuesday, the focus moves to moisture
availability. One of two general synoptic modes/patterns may
develop. The first is the development of a gulf low to replace the
current East Coast low on its way out. This mode is more
conducive to dry air advection and CAD enforcement as the surface
high is unable to shift southward. The other dominate mode relies
on the high over the Northeast sagging southward and reinforcing
the more climatologically dominate summertime feature, the Bermuda
High. This would allow tropical moisture to ascend further
northward and bring wetter conditions across parts of central and
north GA.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023

VFR conditions expected the remainder of the afternoon with
BKN MVFR/high end SCT IFR cigs returning between 08 and 11Z
across the northern TAF sites and BKN/SCT MVFR cigs at CSG/MCN. NE
winds will become more E tomorrow afternoon between 6 and 8KT.
Improvement back to VFR tomorrow afternoon with a PROB30 for TSRA
at KATL from 19-00Z. Low end chance for VCSH this afternoon and
evening, but probabilities too low to include in TAF for now.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on SCT IFR cigs and TSRA tomorrow
afternoon/evening.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  80  63  81 /  20  30  20  10
Atlanta         64  81  65  82 /  10  20  20  20
Blairsville     58  76  57  79 /  10  30  20  30
Cartersville    63  82  63  84 /  10  20  10  20
Columbus        65  84  66  84 /   0  30  30  20
Gainesville     63  78  63  81 /  10  20  10  20
Macon           65  83  65  84 /  10  30  20  10
Rome            63  83  63  84 /  10  20  10  20
Peachtree City  63  81  63  82 /  10  30  20  20
Vidalia         66  83  66  84 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...KAL