000
FXUS62 KFFC 062349
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
649 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

...Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 236 PM EST Sat Mar 6 2021/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
A shortwave trough will round the base of the larger scale eastern-
CONUS trough through the evening, exiting southern GA/northern FL
and pulling the associated moisture with it. Meanwhile, a sprawling
area of surface high pressure will spread into the state from the
north and west tonight. Lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s,
as a clear to mostly clear sky allows for radiational cooling
overnight and early tomorrow morning.

At the upper levels, a broad ridge will build over much of the U.S.
on Sunday, keeping surface high pressure in place through the day
from the Great Lakes down to the northern Gulf. Highs will generally
be a few degrees warmer tomorrow -- in the mid-50s to mid-60s -- as
plentiful sunshine allows the airmass to modify.

Martin

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
High pressure and dry conditions are anticipated for much of the
extended portion of the forecast. There is some potential for a
frontal passage by the end of the week, but the long term models are
in disagreement with this system.

High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the
end of the week. The models begin to diverge Thursday into early
Friday in the mid levels and at the surface as a frontal boundary
tries to push southward out of the OH and TN Valleys. The ECMWF has a
stronger shortwave move through the Great Lakes with a flatter ridge
in the Gulf. The GFS has a stronger ridge in the Gulf as a low
pressure system digs in the desert southwest, keeping that stronger
shortwave further north. Either way, don`t have confidence that if
that front makes it to the CWA it will move through into southern
GA. The nearly zonal flow from the flatter ridge in the Gulf (ECMWF)
doesn`t promote that solution. For now, will take the blend for pops
as they are generally in the 20 to 30 percent range. This isn`t much
of a change from the previous forecast. QPF should remain minimal,
even if the ECMWF solution proves correct as the boundary doesn`t have
a lot of moisture associated with it`s passage.

So, very minimal chances for precipitation for the next seven days.
As of right now, the best chances for more widespread measurable
precip looks to be late next weekend into early next week.

NListemaa

FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum RHs will generally be around 35%-45% this afternoon and
early evening, though portions of far northern Georgia will drop to
25% or less for a couple hours. 10-hour fuel moistures are quite low
(7%-8%), but with winds well below criteria and the short duration
of criteria minimum RHs, no Fire Danger Statement has been issued
today. Tomorrow (Sunday), on the other hand, could warrant a Fire
Danger Statement as much of the CWA could have minimum RHs at 25% or
below for 4 hours or more. In addition, full sunshine should allow
fuel moistures to drop back to criteria in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
High clouds are making their way out of the metro TAF sites, with
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. Winds
should remain out of the NNW through the period, with the
potential for a few hours of NNE tomorrow ~12z-14z at ATL. Wind
speeds will remain 4-11 kts at the metro TAF sites.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of/wind direction change.
High confidence on all other elements

Morgan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          33  61  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         33  60  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     27  54  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    30  60  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        36  64  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     32  59  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           34  63  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            31  62  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  32  61  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         36  61  35  65 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Morgan