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FXUS62 KFFC 151135
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
735 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021/

..Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

A weak surface front located over portions of central Georgia is
hard to pick out, but with the help of winds and dew points appears
to be over portions of east central Georgia and should continue to
push slowly southward.  Models are in good agreement showing drier
air pushing into the forecast area into this evening.  The surface
gradient will tighten across the area this afternoon as surface high
pressure pushes into the area behind the surface front, leading to
wind gusts to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Northwest winds will bring
dewpoint temperatures in the 50s by early tomorrow morning. Models
agree surface front will be south of the forecast area, with limited
moisture available through much of the forecast period, but with
some upper energy rotating around the base of the elongated trough,
could see isolated convection fire mainly over central Georgia this
afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will remain near normal through
the period.

Atwell

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

Long term picks up Wednesday night where things are nice and dry.
Upper level trough over the eastern US will slowly pull to the east
over the next few days, allowing a sfc high to move in over the CWA
and keep us nice and dry and less humid through at least Thursday
into Friday. Moisture will slowly begin to return by Friday, though
not enough confidence in the degree of return yet to introduce much
in the way of any PoPs for afternoon storms. That said, it is June,
so don`t be surprised to see that change moving forward.

Now for the reason you are likely reading this - the tropics - and
the part of the forecast where things get a bit wetter once again.
Confidence continues to increase, and a tropical low is very likely
to impact the CWA in some manner going into the weekend and early
next week. Narrowing it down more than that is still challenging,
and as stated in previous AFDs, will be highly dependent on a number
of factors surrounding the formation and development of any tropical
low or tropical system. Timing differences still exist within the
deterministic guidance, including run to run variability with the
models themselves, and ensemble guidance still shows a wide range of
possibilities for timing of a potential system moving through, from
late Saturday to early next week (and some even slower).

Even with all this, plenty of moisture will be back in place over
the CWA by Saturday, and rain chances will once again be plentiful
via diurnal processes. Have chosen to generally paint chance PoPs
over most of the CWA each day in the rest of the longterm. By
Monday, strong trough and deep attendant sfc low will be diving into
the NE US helping drive a cold front close to the CWA. This will
likely be absorbing and helping move our tropical system through the
area, especially if some of the more common solutions with a Sunday
to Monday timing of the system through our area come to pass. This
may help to focus or intensify rain along the front, so the overall
position of the front may be important to rainfall totals,
especially in north GA. At this time, anticipating 1-3" of rainfall
over the CWA through the weekend into early next week, though expect
this to change as the forecast continues to be honed over the coming
days. Also, the NE quadrant seems likely to pass through the CWA and
this area is the most likely area for tropical tornadoes to occur,
even in a weaker system, which will be another aspect to monitor.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions will persist with mid to high clouds across the
area. Winds will be west to northwest 5-10kts with gusts to 20kts
possible in Atlanta area and CSG between 18-02Z this afternoon
and evening. Any convection should remain south of the TAF sites
this afternoon and evening.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium to high confidence all elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  63  87  63 /   5   0   5   0
Atlanta         89  65  86  65 /   5   0   0   0
Blairsville     81  55  79  55 /   0   0  10   0
Cartersville    88  60  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        95  66  89  65 /  10   5   0   0
Gainesville     88  63  85  62 /   0   0   5   0
Macon           96  64  91  64 /  10   5   0   0
Rome            89  61  86  62 /   0   0   5   0
Peachtree City  91  62  86  63 /   5   0   0   0
Vidalia         96  69  90  69 /  20  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Atwell