000
FXUS62 KFFC 230633
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
133 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020



.UPDATE...

06z Aviation update below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1013 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020/

UPDATE...

Current forecast on track with some developing isentropic upglide
toward daybreak allowing for some slight chance pops for west
central portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, just some minor
tweaks to temps for the overnight period.

Deese

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

As the short term period begins, an upper level ridge remains in
place over much of the eastern CONUS and strong surface high
pressure is centered over the Appalachians. As a result, cool and
dry conditions remain in place over the forecast area today. Very
dry air mixing down this afternoon is contributing to dewpoints in
the 10-15 degree range, bringing much of the resultant relative
humidity values below 25 percent, which are expected to continue
through the remainder of the afternoon. A combination of these low
relative humidities and dry fuels has warranted a Fire Danger
Statement across north and central Georgia through this evening.

On Thursday, the ridge and surface high pressure will shift eastward
towards the Atlantic coast as an amplifying trough moves from the
High Plains towards the Ozarks. Southwesterly upper level flow ahead
of the trough will allow for moisture return and gradually
increasing and lowering clouds throughout the day. Isentropically
induced showers are also possible in western portions of the
forecast area starting in the mid-morning. Introduced slight chance
PoPs for west Georgia in the morning followed by chance PoPs in the
afternoon hours.

The upper level trough and associated surface low will move east
across the Ozarks on Thursday night into Friday. With a cold front
extending southward from the low approaching from the west and a
warm front extending north of the forecast area, prefrontal rain
showers pushing into the area will cause PoPs to steadily increase
through the overnight hours. PoPs will be likely to categorical
across the forecast area by the end of the period Friday morning.
Instability appears to be limited, so thunder is not currently
anticipated in association with these showers during the overnight
and early morning hours.

High temperatures today and Thursday will mainly range from the mid
40s in far north Georgia to the mid 50s in central Georgia, about 5
degrees below climatological averages. Low temperatures, on the
other hand, will undergo a warming trend as moisture returns to the
area. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 30s
(near average) across the area on Thursday morning and in the low to
mid 40s (about 10 degrees above average) across the area on Friday
morning.

King

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

No big changes have been made to the long term. The pattern
remains progressive and GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement. The
strong closed low moving across the Great Lakes at the start of
the period should bring moisture north across our area Thursday
night into Friday night. Weak instability could support a few
thunderstorms mainly over central GA Friday afternoon. Far north
GA remains on the southern fringes of the deeper moisture as the
trough passes to our north. For now...have left any mention of
precipitation out of that area for Saturday. Models showing a low
pressure area moving across the Gulf over the weekend. Depending
on how far north it develops...some light rain may spread north
into central GA Sunday night. Otherwise...dry weather will prevail
until Wednesday when the next frontal boundary approaches the
area.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Initial VFR with increasing cirrus/alto deck and some FEW/SCT 4-5
kft. Included prob30/tempo groups for morning chance of -RA for
15-20z near KATL and some hours sooner for KCSG, otherwise main
SHRA chances will be after about 23z along with lowering of cigs
from MVFR to LIFR (and IFR vsbys) into Friday morning. KATL could
get as low as 300-400 ft after 05/06z Friday. Winds staying on
east side mainly 7-10 kts thru period.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High on all elements.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  39  52  37 /  20  90  90  20
Atlanta         47  41  53  37 /  30  90  90   5
Blairsville     46  36  47  33 /  30  90  90  20
Cartersville    47  40  53  35 /  40  90  90   5
Columbus        52  46  60  38 /  30  90  70   0
Gainesville     46  38  49  37 /  20  90  90  10
Macon           54  45  62  38 /  20  80  80  10
Rome            47  40  52  35 /  50  90  90   5
Peachtree City  49  42  56  36 /  30  90  80   5
Vidalia         56  48  67  41 /  10  50  70  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Baker