Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 211722 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018 Forecast concerns into early next week will be any light rain this weekend, the extent of the clouds and temperatures, then next week`s rain chances Tuesday. The mid tropospheric area of low pressure was centered over the four corners region at 00Z with around 50m height falls associated with it. By 04Z...water vapor satellite imagery, radar, and lightning showed a broad area of moisture over the Central Plains with sprinkles over South Dakota and showers from Nebraska into Kansas. The lightning was mostly confined to southern Kansas into Oklahoma. By 07Z...Columbus had reported a trace and a few areas in central Nebraska had picked up a tenth of an inch or two. At the surface, low pressure was noted from Colorado into west Texas with a northeast surface flow over the Missouri River Valley. Temperatures in the 40s and 50s with dry dewpoints in the 20s to lower 30s. Through Sunday...the broad diffluent flow continues with the right rear entrance of the upper level jet over the Great Lakes and the jet from New Mexico to Nebraska translating eastward with time as the upper low slowly tracks across the Plains. Some of the energy remains across Iowa/srn MN, while a more compact h5 low centers over Arkansas. The bulk of the storms should remain close the the low center over the southern Plains. Locally, ceilings are around 5-10k ft. and hold around this level throughout the day. We`ll see some spotty light rain/sprinkles across the forecast area. The precipitation should be light; sprinkles or a hundredth or so along and north of I80 and generally a trace to a tenth of an inch toward the Kansas Missouri border today into Sunday. Timesections show quite a bit of cloudiness through the weekend. The cyclonic flow holds the clouds in more across the southern cwa with improvement near the South Dakota border. The clouds linger Monday with some sunshine hinted at with the models trying to bring some drying in from western Iowa Monday. The next trough over Montana/Wyoming will be on the heels of the current storm Monday night. Temperatures remain at or below normal in the 50s and 60s. Normal highs are in the upper 60s and normal lower are in the lower 40s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018 The trough moving through the Northern Plains with bring another chance for rain Tuesday. The GFS is a bit colder than the EC with the thermal profile, so we`ll have to see if we get some better agreement with future runs. Temperatures behind the cold front should drop back below normal in the 50s to lower 60s with breezy northwest winds. There may be a few lingering sprinkles Wednesday and a reinforcing cold front Thursday with a little light rain or sprinkles and increasing northwest winds behind the front. Highs are forecast to be around 60 each day. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018 VFR cigs between FL050 and FL100 will persist through Sunday morning as a low pressure system spins east through Kansas and Oklahoma. Scattered showers are likely as far north as southeast Nebraska, but only a small chance to reach TAF sites. Otherwise east winds near 10kt will turn northeast and north after 06Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Dergan

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.