Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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723 FXUS63 KOAX 182345 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 645 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018 Convection struggled to push east toward the Missouri River today, as it encountered much drier air. Winds gusted briefly early this afternoon in response to an outflow boundary associated with the area of precipitation. A frontal boundary set up along and just north of Interstate-80, keeping temperatures cool, in the lower 70s across most of northeast Nebraska while southerly winds allowed western Iowa and southeast Nebraska to warm into the lower 80s. A few more robust storms firing along this boundary may survive to reach the Nebraska/Iowa border this evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop late this evening and tonight as an area of low pressure progresses across northeastern Colorado. The primary threat for severe weather looks to remain in southwest Nebraska and western Kansas, well west of our forecast area. However, showers and storms are expected to move into northeast Nebraska overnight and eventually southeast Nebraska by Saturday morning. There could be a brief lull in precipitation late Saturday morning/early afternoon across the southern portion of the forecast area. If this break occurs, sufficient destabilization of the atmosphere could take place Saturday afternoon, allowing convection to reignite over southeast Nebraska. Storms could be fueled by 2000- 3000 J/kg CAPE and will likely be supercells given the 40-50kts of bulk shear. The SPC has retained an Enhanced Risk for severe storms over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Large hail will be the most likely threat, however strong winds and an isolated tornado will also be possible. Heavy rain will be another concern as PWATs near 1.5" across the area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018 Showers and storms will linger across the area through Sunday as the low pressure system slowly lifts northeast through Nebraska. Any thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits. Cooler air will be in place Sunday, with highs topping out around 60 in northeast Nebraska and in the low 70s in southwest Iowa. A brief period of dry weather is expected Monday before the pattern becomes active once again as several disturbances move through the region Tuesday through Saturday. Highs will warm back into the 70s and low 80s next week, with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018 Scattered showers will be moving away from TAF sites early in the TAF period. Then mainly mid level cigs are expected through the evening. A cold front moving southeast through eastern Nebraska will bring MVFR cigs behind it, reaching KOFK by 10Z and KLNK/KOMA areas between 12Z and 15Z. Meanwhile another area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move over eastern Nebraska between 09Z and 15Z, bringing occasional IFR cigs/vsbys. A break in the precipitation is likely for a time through early afternoon, but more showers and storms are likely later in the afternoon. Some strong thunderstorms could affect KLNK or KOMA after 21Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KG LONG TERM...KG AVIATION...Dergan

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