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504
FXUS61 KOKX 191725
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
125 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
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Aviation section updated, otherwise no significant changes.
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&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonably warm conditions prevail through Monday.

2) Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely Tuesday afternoon
into a portion of Wednesday.

3) Seasonably warm and dry weather should prevail Thursday into
the start of next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front will pass across the area before day break with
high pressure building in from the west through the day. Much
drier air will filter into the area setting the stage for
comfortable humidity levels (dew points likely falling into the
50s). The dry air will be ushered in with a NW flow that could
gust 20-25 mph, mainly this morning. Winds should weaken into
the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Temperatures
will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s, slightly lower than
average for July 19th. Sunday night should see temperatures fall
into the 50s inland and lower to middle 60s elsewhere. There is
not much change expected for Monday as the high pressure
remains in control. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
An anomalous mid-upper level trough is progged to dig across
the Great Lakes on Tuesday and then over the northeast through
Wednesday. An associated low pressure moving across SE Canada
will begin to lift a warm front across the area on
Tuesday/Tuesday night, which will be followed by a cold front
passage on Wednesday.

Tuesday should start dry, but increasing probabilities for showers
and thunderstorms occur through the afternoon and evening. This
potential event is still beyond the scope of the high resolution
modeling, but the global guidance is starting to signal the
potential for locally heavy rainfall as well as a risk for severe
thunderstorms. Mesoscale details are still uncertain, but increasing
SW flow aloft may bring PWATs around 2 inches. Surface instability
is still a main point of uncertainty, as was the case with event on
Saturday, due to potential of clouds and difficulty predicting the
timing of the warm front/surface heating at this time frame. Low to
mid level flow with potential of around 40 kt of 0-6 km shear
may be present, which may help with storm organization if
instability is sufficient. Larger scale forcing is also quite
strong for this time of year.

The warm front should eventually push north and east of the area
Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. The trailing cold front will
slowly approach Tuesday night and then move through Wednesday.
The mid-upper level trough axis should remain to the west for much
of Wednesday, so there could be at least some scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms at times. The trough axis lifts to the north and
east Wednesday night, bringing an end to the chances for precip.

The bottom line here is that showers and thunderstorms are
likely to occur at some point on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, and
then again for a portion of Wednesday. SPC has placed the
western half of the area in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms and the eastern half in a marginal risk for
Tuesday. WPC has continued to place the region in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall both Tuesday and Wednesday. The
exact timing and location of potential impacts, if any, will be
fine tuned over the coming days.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Mean troughing should persist aloft Thursday into Friday,
potentially linger near the east coast next Saturday. The main
axis of moisture is expected to remain well offshore allowing
high pressure to build over the northeast. This will lead to a
period of dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure continues to build this afternoon, then settles nearby
tonight before pushing offshore into Monday.

VFR.

NW flow 10-15kt persists into this afternoon with gusts to 20kt. The
winds diminish this evening, becoming light and variable during the
overnight into Monday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be occasional at times later this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday afternoon - Monday night: VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers/tstms.

Thursday and Friday: VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SCA conditions have been discontinued, although lingering 4 ft
seas at times through this afternoon. Conditions remain mostly
tranquil through Monday night as high pressure builds over the
waters.

The next chance for SCA conditions will be late Tuesday through
Wednesday. These conditions may linger on the ocean into Thursday
as elevated says may not fully subside below 5 ft until
Thursday night.


Rip Currents:

The rip current risk is moderate through this evening with lingering
4-5 ft swells this morning, diminishing to 3-4 ft at 6-7s.

The rip current risk is low on Monday with a light S-SE flow
developing in the afternoon and 2-3 ft seas at 6-7s.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DS