Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261619 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1219 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through tonight. A cold front moves through the region Monday, tracking offshore Monday night. High pressure builds in for Tuesday, remaining in control through Friday night. A cold front then approaches on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast on track this afternoon. Just some cumulus development this afternoon with an otherwise warm and sunny conditions. A modest, synoptically-driven southerly flow continues to develop. This may help dew points climb slightly during the day, especially along eastern coastal sections. High temperatures this afternoon range from the mid 80s to the low 90s away from the immediate coast. With the added moisture, apparent temperatures may end up a couple of degrees above actual air temperatures. Clouds begin to increase in the evening and overnight as the column moistens ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. Given this, temperatures remain mild overnight, generally in the upper 60s or low 70s. A few showers are also possible late tonight ahead of the cold front, mainly NW of the NYC metro.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Unsettled weather returns to start the work week, as a rather robust mid-level trough over the Great Lakes swings east, sending a cold front through the region during the day. A deep moisture plume ahead of the front allows a line of showers to develop, tracking west to east across the area. Timing looks to begin in the morning, close to daybreak in the Lower Hudson Valley, pushing east into the metro around the morning rush, before pushing into Connecticut and Long Island into the afternoon, continuing into the evening. While surface-based instability looks to be low, given a bit more instability aloft, an embedded rumble of thunder or two is possible, especially north and west of NYC. Maintained mention for isolated thunder. Forecast PWATs near 2 inches indicate a very moist column ahead of the front. BUFKIT soundings depict a skinny CAPE profile, with a warm cloud layer up to around 12 kft. With this in mind, WPC has outlined a marginal risk for flash flooding from NYC on east. Any showers/storms that move through will have the potential to have locally heavy rainfall, that may result in minor flooding. A widespread half to three quarters of an inch of liquid is likely to fall, with localized higher amounts. Temperatures on Monday will be lower than Sunday thanks to the rain and clouds, and will likely average a degree or two below normal for this time of year, with highs in the middle to upper 70s. The cold front clears the coast by Monday night, with perhaps some lingering showers across eastern areas early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, clearing conditions for Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs on Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler than Monday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500mb trough axis approaches on Wednesday and shifts through late in the day or evening. Some guidance continues to show showers developing as it shifts through with some instability. Moisture still looks limited, so will continue with a dry forecast for the time being. Highs near normal. Deep-layered ridging occurs behind the departing trough aloft, so Thursday will be dry with moderating temperatures as heights build. The ridge axis aloft flattens somewhat on Friday. Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature, but a thermally-induced trough may set up over the inland zones. Moisture is limited with mid-level capping, so will go with a dry forecast. Highs 90-95 for NE NJ and most of the city as 850mb temps rise to around 18C. 85-90 for most other locations. A cold front with a pre=frontal trough then approach on Saturday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Went sightly below NBM for highs given the potential cloud cover, but if models back off on available moisture, Saturday could be just as hot as Friday. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure remains in control through this afternoon and this evening. A cold front approaches late tonight into Monday morning. VFR. SW-S winds around 10 kt, becoming more S and increasing to mostly 10-15 kt, but higher at some of the coastal terminals along with gusts. Speeds decrease slightly late in the evening and overnight to 10 kts at most coastal terminals, and 5 to 10 kts at outlying terminals. SW winds continue into Monday morning and increase slightly to 8 to 15 kts, with a few gusts possible at eastern coastal terminals. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be only occasional this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Monday...MVFR or lower in showers, chc TSTM. .Tuesday-Thursday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Southerly flow increases today, with gusts climbing to 25 kts along western ocean waters late this afternoon, spreading to the remaining ocean waters in the evening. SCA conditions are then expected on these waters through at least Monday afternoon, with gusts to 25 kts and seas around 5 ft. Winds and seas lower Monday night on the ocean waters, and thereafter, conditions will generally remain below SCA criteria through Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... A few heavy downpours cannot be ruled out on Monday and could result in localized minor flooding, particularly in urban areas prone to poor drainage flooding and some locations in the western half of the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ where FFG is lower due to more recent rainfall. No hydrologic concerns expected from Monday night through next Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a high risk of rip current development along ocean beaches for New York City and Nassau County today due to 3-4 ft at 8-9 second SE swells as well as increasing southerly flow in the afternoon. Slightly weaker winds are expected across Suffolk County, and therefore a moderate risk is expected. A high risk of rip current development is expected Monday along all Atlantic beaches as 5 ft swells of at least 5 seconds are expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DR NEAR TERM...DR/DS SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JE MARINE...JC/DR HYDROLOGY...JC/DR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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