-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
021
FXUS61 KOKX 031723
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
123 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A Canadian cold front approaches and passes this afternoon into
evening. High pressure builds in behind the front tonight through
Friday night, then offshore for Saturday into Saturday night. A
cold front approaches from the Great Lakes Sunday into Monday,
passing slowly across the area Tuesday or even stalling in close
proximity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper-level polar low dives southeast through western Quebec
today into tonight with its associated 1 std deep shortwave
trough passing the area this afternoon & evening with a Canadian
cold front.

A warm, sunny, well-mixed environment in the early afternoon
with temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s will set the
stage for a potentially active afternoon and evening of showers
and thunderstorms. A Canadian cold front will pass the area mid-
afternoon into early evening, providing lift for shower and
thunderstorm development along with shortwave energy passing
aloft.

One negating factor may be from lower surface dew points leading
to less instability. This may be balanced out by the stronger
synoptic forcing. The drier low levels may help increase the
wind threat if convection is able to sustain itself. With 35-50
kts of mainly unidirectional shear, any thunderstorms that do
develop into a broken line or bowing segments along the cold
front.

Showers and thunderstorms are starting to initiate well
northwest along the cold front, but should start expanding
southeastward with the approaching shortwave energy. SPC has
maintained the entire area under a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms. The primary risk will be for damaging winds, but
isolated occurrences of hail can not be ruled out.

Following FROPA this evening, clouds clear by early in the night
as cooler/drier Canadian air gets advected in, aided by the
upper-level trough axis centering over the area. Lows will be in
the mid-60s for coastal locations, upper-60s to low-70s in
urbanized areas of NE NJ, NYC, and Nassau counties, and drop
into the low-60s to upper-50s in interior locations.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper-level trough axis shifts east on Friday and completely
exits east by Friday night. At the same time, an upper-level
ridge builds in from the west Friday through Saturday night. At
the surface, high pressure builds in from the west Friday into
Friday night, passing east offshore, but remaining in control,
Saturday into Saturday night.

Friday through Saturday will be dry and mainly sunny given
widespread subsidence. Temperatures will be close to just above
climatological norms with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper-50s
to near 70.

Ideal conditions are expected for Independence Day celebrations.
Sunny, dry, warm weather for afternoon activities with temperatures
falling into the 70s under clear skies in the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes were made to the extended forecast and
stuck close to the NBM/previous Forecast.

Key Points:

* Warm and humid conditions expected Sunday and Monday .
* A weak cold front moves into the area on Tuesday with a chance of
  showers and thunderstorms

High pressure both aloft and at the surface will slide offshore
Sunday and Monday. With an approaching upper trough trough over the
Great Lakes Sunday into early next week, vertical temperatures
profiles will be on the rise with 85h temps near 18C by Monday. In
addition, a prolonged period of southerly flow will result in
gradually increase humidity during this time.

A weak cold front associated with the aforementioned upper trough
approaches late Monday into Tuesday with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Environment is weakly sheared, but
moderately unstable ahead of the front. There is some uncertainty as
to when the front pushes through, or if it simply washes out in
close proximity Tuesday into Wednesday. This is reflected in some
increasing spread for temperatures between the 25th and 75th
percentiles. Once again, the NBM deterministic temperatures are
generally at or below the 25th percentile during the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A cold front approaches this afternoon and moves across the
area this evening.

Mainly VFR. TSRA possible late afternoon and early evening,
mainly 20Z to 00Z Fri. Any TSRA could produce brief IFR
conditions and could contain strong, gusty winds along with a
wind shift to the NW-N. A few showers may linger an hour or two
behind the cold front passage.

W-WSW winds this afternoon away from the immediate coastal
terminals with wind speeds around 10 kt and gusts up to 20 kt.
SSW winds 10-13 kt expected at KJFK, KISP, KBDR, and KGON this
afternoon. Winds may start to shift towards the W where the sea
breeze has occurred late in the afternoon before becoming NW
this evening with the cold front passage. Wind speeds weaken
overnight and become light and variable at most sites. NW winds
increase Friday morning, becoming around 10 kt in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction may vary from 230 to 270 at KEWR, KLGA, and KTEB
this afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt may be occasional.

Timing of TSRA may be off by an hour or two. Strong, gusty
winds and a wind shift to the NW-N possible with any TSRA.

A few showers may linger after 00z, but should have limited
impact on ceilings and visibilities.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday Afternoon: VFR. Occasional NW wind gusts G15-18 kt
possible.

Friday night through Saturday night: VFR.

Sunday: VFR. SSW gusts up to 20 kt possible Sunday afternoon.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters under a weak pressure
gradient through Friday night. Tstms may pose a hazard of strong
winds, lightning, heavy rain, and locally rough seas Thu
aft/eve.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected this weekend into early next week.
Southerly flow on the ocean waters Sunday into Monday will feature
G15-20kt with seas generally around 3 ft, possibly as 4 ft late
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts anticipated through early next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A lingering southerly swell of 2-3 ft 6-7s will produce a moderate
rip current risk on Thursday, and low on Friday. Surf looks to be
around 2-3 ft Thursday and around 2 ft on Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR
HYDROLOGY...BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...