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000
FXUS61 KOKX 261619
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1219 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through tonight. A cold front
moves through the region Monday, tracking offshore Monday night.
High pressure builds in for Tuesday, remaining in control
through Friday night. A cold front then approaches on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track this afternoon. Just some cumulus development
this afternoon with an otherwise warm and sunny conditions.

A modest, synoptically-driven southerly flow continues to
develop. This may help dew points climb slightly during the day,
especially along eastern coastal sections. High temperatures
this afternoon range from the mid 80s to the low 90s away from
the immediate coast. With the added moisture, apparent
temperatures may end up a couple of degrees above actual air
temperatures.

Clouds begin to increase in the evening and overnight as the
column moistens ahead of an approaching cold front from the
west. Given this, temperatures remain mild overnight, generally
in the upper 60s or low 70s. A few showers are also possible
late tonight ahead of the cold front, mainly NW of the NYC
metro.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather returns to start the work week, as a rather robust
mid-level trough over the Great Lakes swings east, sending a cold
front through the region during the day.

A deep moisture plume ahead of the front allows a line of showers to
develop, tracking west to east across the area. Timing looks to
begin in the morning, close to daybreak in the Lower Hudson Valley,
pushing east into the metro around the morning rush, before pushing
into Connecticut and Long Island into the afternoon, continuing
into the evening.

While surface-based instability looks to be low, given a bit
more instability aloft, an embedded rumble of thunder or two is
possible, especially north and west of NYC. Maintained mention
for isolated thunder.

Forecast PWATs near 2 inches indicate a very moist column ahead
of the front. BUFKIT soundings depict a skinny CAPE profile,
with a warm cloud layer up to around 12 kft. With this in mind,
WPC has outlined a marginal risk for flash flooding from NYC on
east. Any showers/storms that move through will have the
potential to have locally heavy rainfall, that may result in
minor flooding. A widespread half to three quarters of an inch
of liquid is likely to fall, with localized higher amounts.

Temperatures on Monday will be lower than Sunday thanks to the
rain and clouds, and will likely average a degree or two below
normal for this time of year, with highs in the middle to upper
70s.

The cold front clears the coast by Monday night, with perhaps
some lingering showers across eastern areas early Tuesday
morning. Otherwise, clearing conditions for Tuesday as high
pressure builds in from the west. Highs on Tuesday will be a few
degrees cooler than Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500mb trough axis approaches on Wednesday and shifts through late in
the day or evening. Some guidance continues to show showers
developing as it shifts through with some instability. Moisture
still looks limited, so will continue with a dry forecast for the
time being. Highs near normal.

Deep-layered ridging occurs behind the departing trough aloft, so
Thursday will be dry with moderating temperatures as heights build.
The ridge axis aloft flattens somewhat on Friday. Surface high
pressure will be the dominant feature, but a thermally-induced
trough may set up over the inland zones. Moisture is limited with
mid-level capping, so will go with a dry forecast. Highs 90-95 for
NE NJ and most of the city as 850mb temps rise to around 18C. 85-90
for most other locations.

A cold front with a pre=frontal trough then approach on Saturday
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Went sightly below NBM
for highs given the potential cloud cover, but if models back off on
available moisture, Saturday could be just as hot as Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through this afternoon and this
evening. A cold front approaches late tonight into Monday morning.

VFR. SW-S winds around 10 kt, becoming more S and increasing to
mostly 10-15 kt, but higher at some of the coastal terminals along
with gusts. Speeds decrease slightly late in the evening and
overnight to 10 kts at most coastal terminals, and 5 to 10 kts at
outlying terminals. SW winds continue into Monday morning and
increase slightly to 8 to 15 kts, with a few gusts possible at
eastern coastal terminals.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be only occasional this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Monday...MVFR or lower in showers, chc TSTM.
.Tuesday-Thursday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow increases today, with gusts climbing to 25 kts
along western ocean waters late this afternoon, spreading to the
remaining ocean waters in the evening. SCA conditions are then
expected on these waters through at least Monday afternoon, with
gusts to 25 kts and seas around 5 ft.

Winds and seas lower Monday night on the ocean waters, and
thereafter, conditions will generally remain below SCA criteria
through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A few heavy downpours cannot be ruled out on Monday and could result
in localized minor flooding, particularly in urban areas prone to
poor drainage flooding and some locations in the western half of the
Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ where FFG is lower due to more recent
rainfall.

No hydrologic concerns expected from Monday night through next
Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip current development along ocean beaches
for New York City and Nassau County today due to 3-4 ft at 8-9
second SE swells as well as increasing southerly flow in the
afternoon. Slightly weaker winds are expected across Suffolk
County, and therefore a moderate risk is expected.

A high risk of rip current development is expected Monday along
all Atlantic beaches as 5 ft swells of at least 5 seconds are
expected.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday
     for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...