331
FXUS66 KOTX 051123
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
423 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will expand today across the PacNW today and tonight. As the
low slides east, conditions will remain cool and showery and
breezy. Warmer and drier weather will arrive late next week. Next
weekend has the potential to deliver our warmest temperatures of
the spring so far.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Monday night...The circulating low will continue to
slide through, bringing with the a band of rain. As of 230 AM, the
band of rain has stretched itself from Tri-Cities to Ritzville and
will continue to expand through the PacNW, with beneficial moisture.
While it`s not April anymore, we hope these showers will bring May
flowers by the end of the month. Chilly temperatures and wet
conditions will leave the day not ideal for outdoor activities. High
temperatures will hover around 50, with little variation in
temperatures today. Winds will begin to increase late this afternoon
into evening through the Okanogan Valley as the next system moves
onshore. The band of rain will move eastward through the evening,
with rain totals of 0.25 to 0.65 inches mainly east of a line from
Omak to Moses Lake.

On Monday, the low pressure treks east, with westerly winds
increasing across the PacNW. Rain and mountain snow showers are
expected, especially over the mountains. Some lightning strikes are
possible over Eastern WA as there is some MUCAPE available in the
atmosphere. Cooler and drier air will move in Monday night. /KM

Tuesday through Wednesday night:  Windy and showery. The flow aloft
becomes more pronounced from the north to northwest flow as the
slow moving low tracks into MT. A surface trough over eastern WA
keeps pressure gradients packed and ushers in brisk north to
northwest winds. Wind gusts of 35-40 mph are possible across north
central WA and southeast WA into the southern ID Panhandle by
Tuesday afternoon and evening, then gradually decrease overnight.
Showers redevelop Tuesday afternoon and evening primarily across
extreme eastern WA into north ID. With snow levels low in the
early morning hours, they rise to 3-4K ft by afternoon and light
snow accumulations will be seen the central Cascades, Blue
mountains, and Panhandle mountains. For Wednesday, still can
anticipate lingering showers over north Idaho but with less
coverage. It will remain slightly cooler than normal with daytime
temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday and overnight lows
in the mid 30s to lower 40s. By Wednesday, it will be warming
into the seasonal 60s with lighter northwest winds.

Thursday through Sunday: Drier and warmer. Confidence is growing
that a strong upper level ridge will set up over the eastern Pacific
and shift into the Pacific NW by the weekend. A few mountain
showers may develop for Thursday afternoon in north Idaho, but
drier and more stable conditions arrive. Winds continue to
decrease and shift from the north and east. Under the dry ridge of
high pressure, the more noticeable change will be the marked
warming trend with temperatures in the 70s on Thursday and Friday,
and reaching the 80s by the weekend! That would be above normal
by 10 to 15 degrees. /rfox.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Rain bands will increase across Eastern Washington this
morning, before shifting eastward throughout the day. Ceilings
will drop to VFR in the rain bands and behind. Winds will also
increase across the region this afternoon and overnight, with
gusts up to 30kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Chances for MVFR
ceilings expand early Sunday morning to KLWS, KPUW, and KGEG.
There is moderate probability of visibility dropping below 3SM at
Taf sites. Ensembles have brief periods of 2SM or lower for KGEG-
KSFF-KCOE-KPUW.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  40  56  36  59  38 /  90 100  60  20  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  40  53  36  54  38 /  90  90  70  40  30  10
Pullman        45  38  52  34  52  36 / 100 100  60  40  20  10
Lewiston       55  44  60  41  60  41 / 100 100  60  40  30  10
Colville       52  39  59  33  60  35 / 100 100  60  40  20   0
Sandpoint      51  40  52  36  53  39 / 100 100  80  50  50  10
Kellogg        48  39  48  36  49  38 /  80 100  90  60  60  20
Moses Lake     58  38  63  39  64  37 /  80  30  20   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  45  59  41  59  40 /  50  20  20   0   0   0
Omak           62  45  65  37  64  38 /  60  40  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$