990
FXUS64 KOUN 061729
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1229 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Added a small area of dense fog across our far southeast CWA
within an already existing area of fog extending generally east of
I-35. Visibility`s reduced between 1/2 to 1/4 of a mile in the
dense fog area. Can`t rule out a potential advisory for dense fog
by mid-morning but will hold off for now and continue monitoring
the trend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Storms will be out of our area before sunrise Tuesday morning, with
mostly sunny skies expected through the day with highs in the low
80s. Models show another shortwave moving into the plains on
Wednesday as moisture attempts to move back northward into our
southeast counties. As of now the flow is expected to veer across
much of our area through the day Wednesday, which should push the
better moisture eastward and confine any thunderstorm chances to our
eastern/southeastern counties. Instability and shear will support
severe weather with these storms, with large hail and damaging
wind gusts the main threat.

After Wednesday the synoptic pattern appears to transition to one
much less favorable for severe weather, with high pressure to our
north confining the deeper moisture well to our south into the
weekend. This should finally give our area a bit of a break,
although we will not completely dry out as rain chances (non-severe)
return to the area Saturday into Sunday.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Significant-severe thunderstorms are expected to affect the
majority of the terminals this afternoon and evening, including
Will Rogers World Airport. All hazards will be possible,
including: strong tornadoes, very large hail greater than two
inches in diameter surface-to-aloft, and variable wind gusts of
65 kt or greater for KOKC, KOUN, and terminals into western and
northern Oklahoma. TEMPO groups were assigned to reflect the best
timing of significant gusts (>=65 kt) associated with the severe
thunderstorms. Extreme turbulence can be expected with convection
this afternoon and tonight with cumulonimbi tops near 50 kft. The
potential for thunderstorms will diminish from west-to-east later
tonight, with most terminals returning to VFR and breezy winds
following the passage of a Pacific cold front. Until then, CIGs
will vary from IFR to MVFR with strong, southerly winds ahead of
the incoming severe storm potential this afternoon and tonight.

Sincavage/WFO Lubbock

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Hobart OK        MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Wichita Falls TX MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Gage OK          MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Ponca City OK    MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Durant OK        MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09