


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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511 FXUS64 KOUN 161716 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1115 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 - Extended period of dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected Tuesday through Thursday. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for sub-zero wind chills expected both Wednesday and Thursday morning. - Wintry precipitation in the form of snow and ice is expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for north-central Oklahoma for increasing chances of up to 4 inches of snow. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Breezy early morning winds will decrease during the day today as a weak surface ridge moves east across Oklahoma. Despite the cold front yesterday, temperatures will remain mild today with the coldest air displaced to the northeast. Under sunny skies, temperatures will warm into the 40s across southwest and south- central Oklahoma, along with western north Texas. Elsewhere, temperatures in the 30s are likely across northern and central Oklahoma today. Tonight, mid-level moisture with the zonal flow aloft will give way to a stream of increasing mid to high level clouds. Temperatures will drop below freezing area-wide into the 20s by Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Despite increasing high clouds Monday, a return of southerly downsloping winds will give way to pleasant temperatures (compared to what is ahead for the remainder of the week) in the upper 40s to 50s and even some lower 60s across western north Texas. An incoming shortwave trough associated with the same upper low north of the Great Lakes that brought Saturday`s front, will be the culprit for another front Tuesday. Lee cyclogenesis Monday afternoon in northeast New Mexico will slide southeast into North Texas by Tuesday morning. Models have been progressive with bringing the cold front into Oklahoma faster, which in turn will bring the cold air in quicker as well. By around sunrise Tuesday morning, the front is expected to be through the northwest half of Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western north Texas. Gradient driven winds will increase immediately behind the front with breezy north winds. Areas behind the front by early Tuesday morning will only see a decrease in temperatures throughout the day. Increased low-level moisture behind the front will bring increased precipitation chances southward into Oklahoma, with the best chances across northern, central, and south-central Oklahoma. Despite the faster surface front timing, the front around 850mb is still progged to be about 8-10 hours behind with the deeper cold airmass. Snow is the most likely precipitation type across northern Oklahoma and as temperatures above the surface drop, snow chances will increase into central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas throughout the day. Thus, ahead of the cold temperatures aloft, a warm nose will result in rain to freezing rain across portions of central and southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. As temperatures cool aloft, there may be a transition period from freezing rain to sleet before becoming all snow. There is a high (70%) chance for at least a glaze of ice from Norman to Ardmore to Durant. There is also a low to medium (30-50%) chance for up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation in the aforementioned area. Snowfall totals will be highest across northern Oklahoma and decrease southward into southern Oklahoma. There is a medium (40- 70%) chance for at least one inch of snow across west-central into into central Oklahoma. Amounts are expected to be higher across northern Oklahoma and therefore the highest (>70%) chances for at least one inch of snow and a medium (50-70%) chance for up to 4 inches of snow across north-central Oklahoma. Snow ratios are higher than 10:1 and closer to 15:1 across north-central Oklahoma with this event and therefore it won`t take as much QPF to generate an inch of snow. Additionally, models have been trending higher with snowfall amounts due to the potential for deformation banding on the northwest periphery of the 850mb low Tuesday afternoon. A Winter Weather Watch has been issued for late Monday night into late Tuesday night across north-central Oklahoma due to the increased potential for more than 4 inches of snowfall. NBM 75th percentile is showing up to 8-10 inches in the area of the Winter Weather Watch. Model trends will continue to be monitored for an increasing potential for significant snowfall. Concerns with increased snowfall rates and post-frontal windy conditions Tuesday afternoon into the evening could lead to reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions. Overall, wintry precipitation in the form of snow and ice is likely to bring moderate impacts to driving conditions Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. In conjunction with the wintry precipitation, temperatures will be plummeting through the day with ongoing windy conditions leading to sub-zero wind chill values across northern Oklahoma by early Tuesday morning and single digit to sub-zero wind chill values across much of the western half of Oklahoma and western north Texas by Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Precipitation chances will quickly come to end early Wednesday morning, but the dangerously cold temperatures will remain in place. In fact, the coldest wind chills will occur Wednesday morning with a continuation of the breezy north winds coupled with sub-zero to single digit low temperatures. Thus, wind chills as low as 15 to 25 degrees below zero are possible across northern and central Oklahoma and wind chills as cold as 10 degrees below zero are possible across southern and western north Texas. The frigid temperatures will continue throughout the day Wednesday and despite lighter north winds Wednesday night, wind chill values are still expected to drop to 10 to 15 degrees below zero across northern and central Oklahoma and as low as 10 degrees below zero across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued starting at 6 PM Tuesday and running through noon on Thursday for these dangerously cold wind chills and prolonged sub-freezing temperatures. Extended exposure to these temperatures could lead to frostbite and/or hypothermia. Temperatures are not expected to warm above freezing until Friday and even then, snowpack across northern Oklahoma may keep temperatures from warming above freezing until Saturday. Temperatures will then continue to gradually warm back towards the 50s and 60s by the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with only scattered to broken high cloud cover at times. Northerly winds will continue to decrease today and veer to southerly early overnight. Sustained winds will increase to 10 knots after sunrise. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 23 49 27 28 / 0 0 30 90 Hobart OK 24 53 26 28 / 0 0 20 60 Wichita Falls TX 25 56 41 41 / 0 0 10 60 Gage OK 23 51 14 16 / 0 0 30 70 Ponca City OK 18 43 17 18 / 0 0 50 90 Durant OK 25 51 41 42 / 0 0 10 90 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Extreme Cold Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for OKZ004>048-050>052. Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday night for OKZ006>008-012-013-020. TX...Extreme Cold Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...04