114
FXUS64 KOUN 070717
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
117 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible overnight mainly southeast
of I-35.

- Severe weather potential returns next Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 115 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A cold front pushing through the forecast area is initiating a few
thunderstorms along itself, though it`s quickly undercutting those
storms, limiting any severe potential. Some small hail (occasionally
up to quarter size) will be possible with these storms. This
activity will be exiting southeast Oklahoma early this morning.
Additionally, a few elevated showers may linger into late morning
behind the front.

Saturday will be much cooler behind the front with highs mainly in
the upper 50s and lower 60s. Gusty north winds will persist through
the morning, then diminish through the afternoon.

Temperatures will drop into the 30s tonight, though clear skies and
light winds could result in a few localized areas dropping just
below freezing (via radiational cooling).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 115 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Southwesterly to southerly surface flow will allow Sunday to rapidly
warm back up into the 70s. By Monday, temperatures will be in the
80s.

Fire weather will be a concern both days in western Oklahoma as
southwest winds bring dry air (RHs in the teens) into the region.
Monday in particular is showing a low level thermal ridge nudging
into western Oklahoma with ideal downslope / mixing conditions
(near westerly 850mb flow with clear skies).

A shortwave moving through will bring low precipitation chances to
southeast Oklahoma on Monday as well.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 115 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Rain chances ramp up on Tuesday as an upper low is forecast to lift
through the southern plains. With a well established warm moist air
mass in place, a dryline pushing eastward Tuesday afternoon and a
cold front surging south Tuesday night, this period will be one to
watch for severe weather potential.

Cooler temperatures will fill in behind the front Wednesday and
Thursday, and rain chances will drop off as well. Once the upper low
shifts eastward, we`ll enter a dry period late next week.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A cold front will bring a gusty northerly wind to all TAF sites by
12Z Saturday. Strong to perhaps severe storms may develop along
and ahead of the front, especially along and southeast of I-44.
MVFR ceilings will develop behind the front, but should improve
to VFR ceilings by 12-15Z Saturday. The wind should diminish by
late Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  38  71  53 /  10   0   0   0
Hobart OK         61  34  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  38  72  54 /  50  10   0   0
Gage OK           58  32  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     59  33  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         67  43  71  55 /  80  30   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...06