979
FXUS65 KABQ 100551 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1151 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

A cooler and wetter pattern along with wet mountain peak snow is
expected through Sunday thanks to a cutoff low pulling some Gulf
moisture west into the state. The backdoor front across eastern NM
will be reinforced later this evening pushing through the gaps of
the central mountain chain into the Albuquerque Metro bringing an
very strong east winds, especially below canyon openings late
Thursday evening into Friday morning. High wind gusts of 60 mph
possible before tapering off midday Friday. Shower and storm
coverage looks to peak for most areas Saturday before tapering off
and limited to the higher terrain and northeast areas Sunday though
Tuesday. Another uptick in coverage is possible Wednesday before
drier and warmer weather returns late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

Upper trough over the Great Basin has successfully closed off into
an upper low and is evident on water vapor imagery spinning over
southern UT. Position of the low alongside the continued westward
progression of today`s backdoor front will set the stage for another
round of canyon winds across the central valleys tonight, this time
with more vigor than this morning`s winds. The pattern lends itself
to winds over-performing and in the presence of a tight density
gradient between the RGV and eastern highlands, it seems likely that
the ABQ metro could see sustained wind speeds and gusts around 35
and 50 kts, respectively. As such, did opt to upgrade the already
issued High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for tonight through
tomorrow morning.

Enhanced orographic lift amongst increased moisture and upslope flow
will give rise to isolated to scattered rain and snow showers this
evening through tomorrow night across northern NM. Unseasonably
cold, this activity could drop a few to several inches of snow in
the northern mts above 9,000 ft. The additional moisture will lead
to a healthy blanket of clouds tomorrow across eastern NM, bringing
daytime highs down a 3F to 10F lower than today`s readings.
Afternoon temperatures as a whole will trend below to well below
normal nearly all locales.

The backdoor front will get another reinforcing push Friday night,
resulting in another east canyon wind across the middle RGV, though
not to the same extent as tonight`s. Near normal overnight
temperatures will persist and precipitation will favor the central
mts and their adjacent highlands.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

On Saturday, a backdoor front will be through the Continental
Divide with higher moisture along and east of the front. The upper
low (near Las Vegas, NV Saturday morning) starts to jog more to the
east to the Four Corners region opening up as it does so mixing the
backdoor front back east.Surface high pressure over the lower
Mississippi River Valley will allow winds to veer to a southerly to
southeasterly direction across central and eastern NM with drier
westerly flow across western NM. PWATs across eastern NM increase to
0.75 to 0.9 inches as a result. This will result in scattered to
numerous showers and storms across northern, central, and eastern NM
Saturday afternoon and evening, with much lower chances across far
western and southwestern areas due to the drier air moving in.
However, morning cloud cover across the eastern plains and well
below normal temperatures (15 to 20 degrees below seasonal
norms)could actually limit instability for widespread showers and
storms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Showers and
storms across northeast NM look to last well into the overnight
hours as the low moves to eastern CO and northeast NM. With the
added surface moisture, very low dewpoint depressions and light
winds, low clouds along with patchy fog could be possible along the
east slopes of the central mountain chain and eastern plains before
drier westerly flow moves in during the mid morning hours.

The upper low continues moving into the central and southern
high plains Sunday. Temperatures will be much warmer and just
slightly below average across eastern NM thanks to the westerly flow
on the backside of the upper low. PWATs around 0.4 to 0.6 inches
wrapping around the southern flank of the upper low across the
northern mountains and northeast NM will still allow for some
isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop. Skies will
clear after sunset Sunday as the low exits east into the Great
Plains and upper level ridging moves into the central and southern
Rockies. Weak upper level ridging will be over New Mexico Monday
with temperatures warming to near seasonal reading for mid May.
However, some mid level moisture looks to be trapped under the
ridge. This will allow some afternoon to evening showers and storms,
more of the drier variety due to higher dewpoint depressions, to
develop across the northern mountains and adjacent highlands.
Activity and clouds should quickly dissipate shortly after sunset. A
baggy upper low moves into the desert SW on Tuesday with
temperatures across the state slightly above normal. Daytime
heating will allow for some showers and storms to develop
across the northern and western high terrain during the afternoon
and evening hours dissipating after sunset. The baggy low phases
with a northern stream trough moving into northern and central
Rockies on Wednesday. The deterministic models differ on the exact
phasing and thus  how far south the trough digs. Therefore, a
backdoor front could move into northeast NM (GFS) or there
could be return flow across eastern NM (ECMWF). PWATS across eastern
NM look to increase to around 0.7 to 0.9 inches. The NBM seems to
favor the GFS solution with better precipitation chances thus across
northeast NM. Drier northwest flow moves in Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

An active pattern will continue to impact the airspace the next 24
hrs with scattered showers, isolated storms, mt snow, low clouds,
strong winds, turbulence, and icing. Widespread MVFR low cigs and
local IFR will impact the northern high terrain and much of east-
central and northeast NM thru Friday morning. Showers, isolated
storms, and mt snow tonight will taper off after sunrise then
redevelop again in the afternoon with increasing coverage Friday
night along and east of the central mt chain. Another round of
widespread MVFR to local IFR is expected across eastern NM Friday
night. Meanwhile, gap winds in the RGV tonight will taper off thru
Friday afternoon but strengthen after sunset with gusts of 30 to
40 kt common again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

No critical fire weather conditions are expected during the forecast
period. A pattern change will bring increased increased moisture
across northern and eastern New Mexico. Wetting rainfall chances
increase tonight through early next week, particularly along the
central mountains and eastward. While minimum relative humidity
improves across the Rio Grande Valley and eastward, the west will
remain quite dry, with minimum values in the low double digits to
teens. Cooler and unsettled weather will persist for most areas
until warming brings temperatures above average areawide by Tuesday.
Ventilation will be a mixed bag of poor to excellent through early
next week, with areas west of the central mountains seeing the best
vent rates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  70  43  71 /  10  20  20  30
Dulce...........................  32  63  33  65 /  60  70  40  60
Cuba............................  36  64  38  66 /  20  30  20  60
Gallup..........................  29  70  33  71 /   0   0   0  10
El Morro........................  33  67  37  67 /   0   5   5  20
Grants..........................  31  70  34  70 /   0  10   5  30
Quemado.........................  33  71  36  71 /   0   0   0  10
Magdalena.......................  42  73  45  73 /   0   5  20  30
Datil...........................  36  70  39  69 /   0   0  10  20
Reserve.........................  32  75  34  76 /   0   0   0   5
Glenwood........................  45  79  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  31  57  33  58 /  70  80  50  80
Los Alamos......................  42  60  43  62 /  40  40  30  80
Pecos...........................  38  58  40  56 /  40  30  50  90
Cerro/Questa....................  36  54  38  57 /  80  60  50  90
Red River.......................  29  48  31  51 /  90  70  50  90
Angel Fire......................  27  48  30  52 /  90  50  50  90
Taos............................  33  60  34  63 /  70  50  40  80
Mora............................  34  51  37  53 /  80  50  40  90
Espanola........................  41  68  43  71 /  50  30  30  80
Santa Fe........................  42  61  44  63 /  50  30  50  80
Santa Fe Airport................  42  65  44  67 /  30  20  40  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  49  70  50  73 /  10  20  30  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  48  72  51  75 /  10  10  20  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  75  49  77 /   5  10  20  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  46  73  49  74 /  10  10  20  50
Belen...........................  42  78  46  79 /   0  10  20  50
Bernalillo......................  47  72  49  75 /  10  10  20  60
Bosque Farms....................  43  76  46  78 /   5  10  20  50
Corrales........................  46  73  48  76 /  10  10  20  60
Los Lunas.......................  43  76  46  78 /   5  10  20  50
Placitas........................  46  66  48  70 /  20  10  30  60
Rio Rancho......................  47  71  49  74 /  10  10  20  60
Socorro.........................  47  82  50  82 /   0   5  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  42  61  44  64 /  20  20  30  70
Tijeras.........................  43  65  45  68 /  20  20  30  70
Edgewood........................  41  63  43  66 /  20  20  30  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  38  65  41  67 /  10  10  30  70
Clines Corners..................  37  58  40  57 /  20  10  40  70
Mountainair.....................  40  69  44  69 /  10  10  30  60
Gran Quivira....................  39  70  43  71 /  10  10  30  60
Carrizozo.......................  47  75  50  76 /   5   5  20  50
Ruidoso.........................  41  66  45  67 /   5  10  30  60
Capulin.........................  36  54  38  53 /  80  40  30  80
Raton...........................  36  56  39  55 /  90  50  30  80
Springer........................  39  57  42  56 /  80  40  30  80
Las Vegas.......................  38  56  40  52 /  70  30  50  90
Clayton.........................  43  62  43  62 /  40  20  20  60
Roy.............................  43  60  45  56 /  60  30  40  80
Conchas.........................  50  68  51  62 /  50  20  40  80
Santa Rosa......................  46  66  47  59 /  40  10  40  80
Tucumcari.......................  46  69  47  63 /  30  10  30  80
Clovis..........................  48  71  50  62 /  10   5  30  70
Portales........................  48  72  50  64 /  10   5  30  60
Fort Sumner.....................  48  71  50  62 /  20  10  30  70
Roswell.........................  54  75  56  68 /   5   5  40  50
Picacho.........................  47  69  50  66 /   5  10  30  50
Elk.............................  43  69  47  70 /   0   5  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 11 AM MDT Friday for NMZ219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...42