952
FXUS65 KBOI 092012
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
212 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...The primary
concern this afternoon remains the potential for strong outflow
winds from high-based thunderstorms. Most guidance continues to
show a 40-60% chance for wind gusts exceeding 50 mph in the
Boise Metro area between 4 PM and 8 PM MDT.

Water vapor imagery as of 1 PM MDT shows the upper-level low
centered over south-central Oregon and northwest Nevada, still
on track to move northeast across southeast Oregon and southwest
Idaho through this evening. Strengthening southwesterly flow,
increasing mid-level moisture, and steep low-level lapse rates
from daytime heating will support scattered thunderstorm
development, likely initiating around 3 PM MDT.

The most favorable corridor for storm development stretches
from central Harney and Malheur Counties into southwest Idaho,
including the Boise Mountains and the Idaho-Nevada border
region. The strongest storms could produce isolated severe wind
gusts up to 60 mph, particularly from Malheur County eastward
across the Snake River Plain and into the Boise Mountains. Even
outside of stronger cells, widespread gusts of 35-50 mph are
becoming increasingly likely-especially across northern Malheur
County, the Weiser Basin, the Treasure Valley, and the West
Central and Boise Mountains. Blowing dust will likely accompany
these winds, especially in lower elevations and open terrain,
reducing visibilities at times.

This system is relatively dry, with precipitable water values
in the 50th to 60th percentile. Most high-res guidance suggests
localized rainfall rates between 0.25 and 0.50 inches per hour,
which generally wouldnt lead to flooding concerns. However,
given the lower thresholds for debris flows and flash flooding
on burn scars-especially the Wapiti Burn Scar-any heavier cells
passing over those areas will need to be monitored closely.
Storm chances will persist through sunset across much of the
area and may linger into the late evening, especially in the
Boise Mountains, where activity could last through midnight.

Thursday will bring dry and cooler conditions, with high
temperatures around 5 degrees below normal. Winds will be breezy
across the Snake River Plain, especially east of Boise, with
gusts of 25-35 mph possible. Conditions improve on Friday with
mostly clear skies, lighter winds, and highs returning to near
normal. Northwesterly flow aloft should help keep smoke from
fires burning in south-central Oregon out of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Broad ridging
characteristic of mid-summer will build across a large part of the
CONUS, bringing a multi-day period of slightly above-normal
temperatures and general dryness to the region. Valley daytime
temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s Saturday and
Sunday, and close to 100 on Monday. A weak dry cold front may move
through on Tuesday and bring a very modest cool-down of a few
degrees, but with few notable impacts other than increased
breeziness.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop across the area Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Gusts up
to 50 kt and blowing dust reducing visibility will be possible. Peak
time period for this activity affecting area terminals is 09/23Z
through 10/05Z. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt through morning and
early afternoon, with locally stronger winds of 30-50 kt with
outflows. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 5-15 kt.

KBOI... Isolated thunderstorms developing after 22Z with a 30%
chance of terminal being impacted. Strong outflow winds are more
likely. Otherwise, VFR conditions. Surface winds: Winds NW 5-15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt Wednesday afternoon. Outflow winds of 30-45 kt
possible (60% chance) between 23Z and 03Z. WNW winds at 8-10 kt
overnight.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight
     IDZ400-420-423-424-426.
OR...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight
     ORZ670-672>674.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JR
AVIATION.....JR