003
FXUS61 KBTV 172335
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
735 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The warming trend has begun with Burlington hitting 80 degrees for
the first time this year. Other than a few showers today and
Saturday, dry conditions are expected to prevail through the first
half of next week. Temperatures are expected to continue to warm
through early next week with highs approaching the mid to upper 80s
next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 654 PM EDT Friday...Scattered showers have developed
across parts of northern Vermont and New York. The showers over
Vermont will slowly move northwest into Quebec and New York as
stable marine-influenced air moves in from the Atlantic. Showers
will linger over parts of northern New York for a larger part
of the night as it is little more influenced from a stalled
frontal boundary. Clouds should briefly clear from southeast to
northwest before marine moisture causes stratus to reform in
many areas. Previous discussion follows...

Previous Discussion...Temperatures have warmed nicely under
partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. With the quasi-
stationary front now north of the International Border, the
heating has led to good afternoon mixing which continues to dry
out the lower levels. This has led to lower afternoon dewpoints
which has made it feel like a nice late spring/early summer day
without the humidity. With all the heating taking place today,
we will likely begin to see a few showers develop over the next
hour or two. The main focus on these showers will be near the
International Border with the possibility of a few rumbles of
thunder. Nothing significant is expected today but a quick
quarter to third of an inch of rain will be possible with any
heavier showers or thunderstorms that develop this afternoon. We
will see the shower and thunderstorm activity wane with the
loss of daytime heating with dry conditions expected overnight.
Fog looks extremely unlikely tonight as temperatures likely
won`t cool enough to support fog.

Heading into Saturday, it may not be as dry as expected for a few
locations. If you remember several days ago, we were talking about
this stalled low pressure system over the coastal Mid-Atlantic.
Well, this system will finally be on the move and will be shifting
northward. Models support southeasterly flow that is expected to
advect moisture and showers into coastal New England and how far
westward this showers move inland remains in questions. The latest
package of model data hasn`t helped our confidence as some models
show it moving into the Connecticut River Valley while others keep
the precip closer to the coast. Nevertheless, it would be just some
scattered showers, at most, that would make it into the region
should the precip push westward. Overall, it`ll be another nice day
with more cloud cover today and highs in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Quiet weather is expected for the latter
half of the weekend with high pressure building over the region.
Daytime heating will allow diurnal cumulus to develop during the
afternoon, especially over the higher terrain, but with ample dry
air in place, precipitation is not expected. Afternoon highs will
range from the lower/mid 70s east of the Greens and over the
Adirondacks to the mid/upper 70s in the wider valleys; a few
locations may top 80F. Lows Sunday night will likewise vary by
location, with higher terrain spots in the lower/mid 50s and mid 50s
to around 60F elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Ridging will settle over the region through
mid week, resulting in a warming trend. With 850 mb temperatures
approaching 15-16C and ample mixing from steep low level lapse
rates, high temperatures are expected to warm well into the 80s on
Tuesday and Wednesday, with some valley locations possibly
approaching 90F. An upper shortwave trough will ride up over the top
of the ridge on Wednesday and may bring some showers and
thunderstorms to mainly northern NY during the afternoon. Cloud
cover from this activity may temper warming a bit, but did go a
couple of degrees above the NBM both Tuesday and Wednesday given the
favorable set up. Better thunderstorm chances arrive on Thursday
with a cold frontal passage. Shear will be ample with 35-40 kt
between 0-6 km, and while there should be plenty of CAPE, it will
depend on how moist the column is and how steep mid- level lapse
rates are. Still, storms could be strong with heavy rain. Trends
will need to be watched as we approach mid-late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
with EFK have the best chance of seeing a brief degradation to
CIG/VIS overnight if some cloud breaks occur. There have been
some sprinkles at the EFK terminal with measurable rain likely
in the vicinity. Overnight, a mid level cloud deck will mostly
be persistent but could see some brief breaks. If CIGs do break,
there`s then some brief fog formation will be possible. By 12Z,
another cloud layer will be moving east to west bringing
lowering CIGs into the 035-060 range. Showers cannot be
completely ruled out as well given the proximity of a stationary
front, but forcing along the boundary will remain weak keeping
coverage mainly isolated through 15Z. Heating tomorrow will help
shower coverage to marginally increase outside the Champlain
Valley with some scattered potential at MPV/MSS/EFK.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance TSRA, Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Boyd