228
FXUS61 KBTV 090555
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
155 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms will
continue this afternoon. Some small hail and gusty winds are
possible within thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will come
to an end this evening, and the remainder of the night will be
damp and cloudy with some drizzle. The rest of the week into
early next week will see at least chances for showers continue
each day as we enter into a wet and unsettled weather pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Thursday...Forecast is in good shape early
this morning. Boosted sky cover for most areas to overcast with
only localized clearing in eastern Windsor County and southern
St. Lawrence County at this time and little improvement through
the overnight. Also added some higher gusts of 20-25 MPH in the
Champlain Valley and much of central Vermont with breezy
north/northwest winds likely continuing in the cold air
advection pattern. These winds look to only gradually diminish
towards daybreak.

Previous discussion...A cold front will move south through the
area tonight, though impacts will be restricted to just some low
clouds and drizzle. Forecast soundings suggest a layer of low-
level moisture will become trapped under a mid-level inversion,
resulting in a dreary night with low stratus, mist, and drizzle.
Additional shortwave energy moving through Thursday will keep
low clouds around and have maintained a few light showers in the
forecast. Some areas may see low clouds erode during the
afternoon, leading to a few peaks of sunshine, but overall
looking at predominantly mostly cloudy skies. Very little change
in the overall pattern going into Thursday night, so will again
expect lowering stratus clouds through the night especially in
higher terrain. Low temperatures will be in the 40s both tonight
and Thursday night, and high temperatures Thursday will be in
the 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 348 PM EDT Wednesday...The overall trend noted by the
previous discussion towards drier conditions for Friday
continued with the 12Z NWP guidance with shortwave energy
dropping south of the region from the Ohio Valley through the
Mid-Atlantic states. The northeast will remain under a broad
upper level trough though so some showers can`t be ruled out,
especially south. Dry conditions generally rule Friday night in
between shortwave troughs, but chances for showers return on
Saturday as a deepening trough over the Great Lakes will shift
the flow to southwesterly across the region. The highest chances
for showers will be across northern New York, with PoPs lower
across Vermont. Temperatures will run near normal through the
period with highs slightly cooler in the mid 50s to low 60s, and
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 348 PM EDT Wednesday...More unsettled conditions look to
return for the latter half of the weekend as the aforementioned
upper trough shifts offshore and potentially deepens and closes
off. The GFS is the most aggressive solution while the ECMWF and
GDPS are lesser so, offering lower chances for precipitation.
Being it`s Mothers Day we`ll offer a little hope for drier
weather and lean towards consensus and blended guidance with
PoPs 40-50% across the region through Monday. Heading into mid-
week conditions continue to remain unsettled as the upper flow
trends northwesterly with several shortwave passages possible.
Not looking at any impactful rain or thunderstorms, but the
chance for showers exists each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings persist
through the next 4 to 8 hours or so in northwest flow in the
wake of a cold front, with VFR conditions expected thereafter.
Somewhat uncertain flight categories with cloud bases near 1000
feet at several sites including RUT, BTV, SLK, EFK, and MPV,
with probabilities of IFR conditions generally decreasing only
slightly with time, and faster between 09Z and 12Z as low
clouds mix out after sunrise. NW winds will mostly be 10 knots
or less, with some gusts at PBG and BTV near 20 knots through
about 10Z, and trend north/northeasterly after 18Z.


Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Neiles