Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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012 FXUS64 KHUN 111928 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 228 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A very pleasant afternoon across the Tennessee Valley as high pressure keeps dry and mild conditions over the region. Low pressure to our northeast will continue to track toward the northern Atlantic Coast tonight, and a weak cold front will make its way into the area. Given limited moisture and the lack of any sufficient forcing, will keep a dry forecast with mostly clear sky conditions overnight. This will be ideal for those hoping to catch a glimpse of the northern lights, with maybe a few more clouds over the area than we saw last night. Overnight lows will be on the cooler side, dropping into the lower 50s to upper 40s in the higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Will maintain a dry forecast through Sunday as upper ridging builds in from our west and low pressure centers over central KS. This will result in a warmer day on Mother`s Day with afternoon highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s with increasing clouds late in the afternoon and light and variable winds. Will remain dry through most of the night Sunday, but low rain chances will increase from SW to NE during the early morning hours as synoptic lift and better moisture arrive in the area. Rain chances will be maximized Monday afternoon and overnight as a cold front nears and pushes through the area, and for now it looks like the best chances for strong to severe storms will miss our area to the southwest. With that being said, still expect to see periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms so this system bears watching. Clouds and heavy rain will keep temperatures lower on Monday, with highs limited to the lower 70s with little change in temps overnight, only falling to the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 An unsettled weather pattern will continue as we go into the week. An upper level area of low pressure now over the southern Great Basin will move eastward over the next few days, and should reach the Mid Mississippi River Valley on Tue. Upper troughing accompanying this system will place the area under a SW-NE upper flow. A surface low with this system and a cold front nearing from the west will continue a trend of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley. Overall storm strength continues to look "general" with a usual potential for gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning strikes. The aformentioned cold front should move across the area Tue night with shower activity ending from west to east. The parent low however will move slower to the east. Its location over the Ohio Valley, and residual moisture over our eastern areas will keep lower end rain chances in on Wed, mainly east of I-65 and over our more NE areas. A brief break in shower activity is forecast Wed night as the first low finally exits more to the north and east. More showers and storm chances return on Thu as yet another system nears from the west. Output from the deterministic models was becoming more uncertain (comparing the precip fields with one another), so trended more with the blends. They were suggesting the best rain chances Thu night into Fri. This system looked similar overall strength wise with the earlier system, with mainly non-severe storms anticipated. High temperatures on Tue and Wed should range in the upper 70s. A bit warmer on Thu with highs in the lower 80s, and around 80 Fri. Lows Tue night should range in the lower 60s, and a bit cooler Wed night in the upper 50s, then back into the lower 60s Thu night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period at both terminals. Expect mostly clear skies with breezy WNW winds this afternoon, with gusts as high as 20kts possible. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...25