Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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818 FXUS63 KICT 081724 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1224 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for a few elevated strong/severe storms early this morning across far southeast Kansas - Dry and quiet weather to prevail for this afternoon into the weekend - Showers and storms possible for Sunday into early next week, severe weather not expected && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Current conditions show strong low-level jet and associated moisture transport surging north and over-running the northward moving surface warm front over southern Oklahoma. This 925-850mb layer moisture surge will continue to race north of surface warm front and encounter a elevated 700mb baroclinic zone where air parcels become more vertically forced. This should spark off elevated convection over southeast Kansas/western Missouri. Cloud bearing wind shear/elevated instability is supportive of large hail this morning. The window for storms over southeast Kansas looks shorter lived with better chances longer duration in western Missouri. Large hail will be the main severe weather hazard. Meanwhile the higher dewpoints from advancing surface warm front look to make a brief appearance in far southeast Kansas later this morning then shift eastward into Missouri as a cold front slides southeast. The timing of surface based storms initiating along the front looks like it will affect locations east of southeast Kansas. Quiet weather conditions will prevail for this afternoon and continue into the weekend as surface high pressure builds over the region ushering in drier low-level air. Models show a upper level system slowly ejecting from the Rockies eastward into Kansas/Oklahoma for Sunday into early next week. This could bring some scattered rain showers/storms to the area. Strong to severe storms look unlikely this period given weaker flow aloft and low instability. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 There are minimal aviation concerns through this forecast period. A boundary will continue to push southeast through the Flint Hills. Any showers and storms have stayed in the far southeast corner of the state and away from KCNU which is expected for the next few hours. There are breezy winds behind the boundary which will last through the afternoon before subsiding around 0Z. Thursday afternoon could be breezy as well. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...VJP