214
FXUS63 KICT 181139
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible this
  afternoon-evening. Marginal severe weather threat.

- Severe thunderstorm potential Sunday afternoon-evening, mainly
  along/west of the Flint Hills.

- Potential for a continued active off-and-on thunderstorm
  pattern next week through next weekend.

- Above normal temperatures probable the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
are possible from just north of roughly Highway 50 on south through
far southern Kansas between about 3-11pm, along a trailing weak cold
front approaching from the north. Have a feeling activity will tend
to struggle given weak to NIL upper forcing. If activity can develop
and sustain itself, moderate instability amidst marginal deep layer
shear and decent downdraft CAPE will support mainly pulse to multi-
cell storms capable of small hail and 50-65 mph wind gusts.

LATER THIS EVENING-SUNDAY MORNING...Strengthening 850-700mb warm
advection ahead of a low amplitude shortwave should support one or
more clusterS of thunderstorms tracking east-northeast across mainly
northern Kansas, primarily along/north of I-70. Marginal
instability/shear combination should keep most of this activity sub-
severe.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A sharpening dryline over western Kansas
ahead of an approaching low-amplitude shortwave will be the focus
for thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon, mainly west of I-
135. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures and only modest
dryline convergence, decent mid-upper forcing should be enough to
initiate at least isolated thunderstorms. Strong heating and
seasonably rich low-level moisture amidst very steep mid-level lapse
rates will yield moderate to strong instability in the warm/moist
sector. Additionally, effective deep layer shear of 40-50 kts
oriented perpendicular to the dryline will support discrete
supercells with any storm that can form. Marginal cloud bases should
keep the primary threats as large hail and damaging winds, although
lowering cloud bases and increasing low-level shear in the evening
could support an isolated tornado threat in the evening with any
cells remaining discrete/semi-discrete. Depending on how many storms
form, a developing strong low-level jet and hefty downdraft CAPE
could allow this activity to grow upscale into a thunderstorm
complex during the evening, posing mainly a damaging wind threat
generally east of I-135.

MONDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...Thunderstorm development is uncertain
Monday afternoon-evening, due to large scale height rises and
associated subsidence, which should tend to suppress widespread
thunderstorm chances. However, convergence in vicinity of a triple
point progged to be somewhere across central or south-central Kansas
could prove sufficient for a thunderstorm or two to develop. Should
this happen, strong buoyancy amidst strengthening deep layer shear
would support supercells capable of all severe hazards.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...A more synoptically evident severe weather
event looks possible during this time period, as the parent western
CONUS upper trough finally ejects onto the Great Plains, interacting
with a very moist/unstable airmass in place across the region. Model
consensus continues to highlight roughly the Flint Hills on east for
the greatest severe weather potential, in vicinity of a dryline/cold
front intersection. Long hodographs and strong instability will
support supercells capable of all severe hazards.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...After a break Wednesday, model
consensus supports the potential for a continued off-and-on active
pattern thunderstorm-wise across the Heartland, as another longwave
trough takes shape across the western CONUS, ejecting various pieces
of upper energy northeast onto Mid-America. Details on timing,
amplitude, and placement of synoptic features remains unclear at
this time, which will have a big impact on severe weather
implications. Stay tuned for later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A few isolated thunderstorms are expected by mid-late this
afternoon and into the evening across portions of central and
southern Kansas, in vicinity of a weak cold front approaching
from the north. Activity will likely be fairly hit-or-miss, but
capable of pea to dime size hail, 50-60 mph winds, and brief
heavy rain. Since activity will be fairly sparse, did not
include a mention in the 12z TAFs. Additional thunderstorm
chances are expected to arrive later this evening and tonight
across mainly northern Kansas (generally north of I-70).

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK