654
FXUS63 KICT 152030
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
330 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible this evening; mainly across southern
  KS

- Additional shower/storm chances (20-40%) Thursday and Friday
  across southeast KS

- Mainly quiet over the weekend with rain/storm chances
  returning next week&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

As of 3 PM Wednesday afternoon, a complex weather setup was evolving
across portions of central KS into OK. A prolonged period of
elevated showers and storms moved across southern and southeast KS
leaving an outflow boundary in its wake from east central OK into
south central KS. Based on the latest surface analysis this outflow
boundary intersects the synoptic front in southern Stafford County
or northern Pratt County. This boundary is likely to be the focal
point for storm development. MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg and a long,
veering hodograph will support supercell structures with large hail
up to golf ball size and damaging winds. As the evening progresses,
a relatively dry boundary layer should foster cold pool/RFD mergers
and a gradual upscale growth into more linear structures.
Transitioning into the overnight, storms are likely to become
elevated with a heavy rain threat across mainly southeast KS.

The effective boundary is likely to progress southeast of the
forecast area on Thursday. That being said, additional shower and
storms are possible north of the boundary across southeast KS.
Effective shear values less than 20 kt should limit the potential
for severe storms.

As we transition Friday into the weekend, a northern stream,
midlevel trough will slide across the northern Plains. Limited
moisture should keep things mostly dry Friday and Saturday. A more-
active midlevel pattern will emerge early next week as a
southwestern US trough develops. This will increase the potential
for storms, including severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region mainly
across southern Kansas and parts of central Kansas late this
afternoon and evening. The activity will spread eastward
tonight. Meanwhile a cold front will push southward with low
clouds in the MVFR/IFR categories developing along and just
behind the front. Winds will switch to the northwest behind the
frontal passage.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...CDJ