Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 120805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
305 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

The back edge of the snow was moving southeast across the khop
area as of 07z. Therefore, all headlines have been cancelled
except for Christian and Todd Counties in KY. A closed 500 mb low
was over middle Tennessee, making slow east-southeast progress. In
its wake, a deep northwest flow of chilly air will continue
through the middle of the week.

For today, the main focus is on a bank of low clouds moving south
into central Missouri and Illinois early this morning. Model
forecast soundings are in agreement this cloudiness will
overspread the lower Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri by midday.
With the northwest wind and increasing clouds, temps will be
hard-pressed to reach 40 over snow-covered areas today. From the
kpah/kmdh corridor west, it still appears highs should reach the
mid and upper 40s.

Tonight, low clouds are likely to diminish. The combination of
clearing skies and decreasing winds will result in a cold night.
Lows will range from the mid 20s over snow covered areas to around
30 in se Missouri, far west KY, and sw Illinois.

Tuesday will be very similar to today, with low stratocumulus
clouds once again increasing. Again, temps will be hard-pressed to
reach 40 where snow cover persists east of the kpah/kmdh corridor.
Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid 20s under clearing skies and
light winds.

Wednesday and Wednesday night will be mainly clear as high
pressure moves east across the lower Mississippi Valley. Highs
will be mainly from 45 to 50. As southwest winds increase Wed
night, lows will be in the lower to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

High pressure will be centered southeast of our region on Thursday.
Flow around the high, and around a low pressure system to our west,
will give us southwest winds across our region, resulting in warming
temperatures and increasing moisture.

A front will develop across our region off the low to our west on
Thursday. This front will slowly sink south across the area late
Thursday night into Friday.  Showers will develop along and north of
the front, giving us good chances of showers across the entire PAH
forecast late Thursday night into Friday.  Models take the front far
enough south Friday night to give us decreasing shower chances
Friday evening, with showers confined to our far southern counties
by late Friday night.  A few thunderstorms will be possible in our
extreme southern counties Friday night as models show some
increasing instability.  As we get into Saturday, ECMWF and GFS have
a similar track of the low, but ECMWF is much faster than the GFS
moving the low eastward. Consensus is leaning toward the slower GFS
solution, which will keep showers in the forecast Saturday afternoon
into early Sunday as the low moves into our area by 12z Sunday.  A
few thunderstorms are possible area wide as we get into Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning with the proximity of the low.

Timing uncertainties increase on Sunday as both models show another
area of low pressure over the central Plains by 00z Monday.  We may
see more of a lull in shower activity on Sunday depending on the
location of the associated front, but for now we will keep decent
chances of showers in through Sunday.  In any case, it looks like a
wet pattern will continue into next week.


Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Clear skies early this morning will give way to low clouds
arriving from the north today. The 06z tafs are on the optimistic
side regarding the low cloud coverage from midday through the
afternoon. The 12z tafs will likely contain a low cloud ceiling
from midday to early evening. Winds will be rather gusty from the
northwest, possibly gusting near 20 kt today.

The low clouds will tend to decrease tonight with decreasing


KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for



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