Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 171734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
134 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The weather will be fairly quiet through Monday, with chilly
temperatures that will persist through the coming week. While a
system may provide a chance of snow in parts of the area
Tuesday into Wednesday, such as the Poconos to Catskills, there
is uncertainty in its track. The system could end up completely
bypassing to our south and east.


345 AM Update...
Our weekend will feature chilly yet benign weather with subtle
features passing through the region.

Column has significantly dried out with warm air advection and
slight ridging aloft. Some moisture remains trapped in the form
of a shallow stratocumulus layer southeast of Lake Ontario,
reaching to the Catskills and the far northeast corner of
Pennsylvania, along with a patchy flurry or two.

We currently have another wave dropping across Quebec and far
eastern Ontario, which will skim across our area today while
losing definition. It will be enough to keep at least some cloud
cover going north of the Twin Tiers and perhaps scattered very
light flurries through midday or so. Otherwise though, there
will be a decent amount of sunshine, and we still have some
pressure gradient over the area. Thus, we should again mix down
some wind during daytime hours, with 20-30 mph peak gusts common
and perhaps a few higher elevation spots to 35 mph. Highs will
range from lower to mid 30s where clouds are more numerous in
the north, yet upper 30s to mid 40s along and especially south
of the Twin Tiers.

Surface ridge of high pressure will nose into the region
tonight, slackening winds and clearing out what remains of cloud
cover. Radiational cooling of dry air mass will realize rather
cold readings dipping into at least teens; in some cases single
digits especially where there is still decent snowpack. Northern
Oneida County could even get around zero.

Yet another weak shallow wave will drop into Central NY Sunday,
generating some clouds and perhaps a couple flurries north of
Twin Tiers on an otherwise mostly sunny day. Little change for
highs, with mid 30s-lower 40s in Northeast PA and Southern
Tier/Finger Lakes/Catskills NY; upper 20s-mid 30s further north
in Central NY.


A dry but cold period with an upper level trough over the
northeast as surface high pressure over central Canada
extends southeast into the local area. Clearing skies and light
winds Sunday night will result in low temperatures ranging from
the single numbers in the Tug Hill plateau and western Mohawk
Valley to around 20 in the Wyoming Valley. Monday`s highs will
range in the upper 20s to middle 30s with valley areas in
northeast Pennsylvania near 40. Monday night lows will be
similar to Sunday night.


Latest medium range models are continuing to trend farther south
with the potential mid week winter storm. The ECMWF is farther
south than the GFS which would only give light amounts of
snowfall to the far southeast forecast area. The ECMWF is a
total miss. On Tuesday a mid level wave moves off the mid
Atlantic coast with the surface reflection just brushing the far
southeast forecast area. Another wave digging on the back side
of the upper level trough Tuesday night initiates a secondary
surface low off the southeast coast. This system moves off the
southeast coast on Wednesday and remains well south and east of
the local area. This is a very complex system due to the upper
level waves, much uncertainty still exists. Will continue
mention in the HWO but for only much of northeast Pennsylvania
and the western Catskills. In general have backed off on the
pops Tuesday through Wednesday with low chance pops northeast
Pennsylvania and the western Catskills with slight chance
elsewhere. Thursday through Saturday looks primarily dry with a
persistent upper level trough over the northeast and high
pressure over eastern Canadian.

The extended period will remain cold with lows generally
running in the teens to lower 20s and high in the 30s.


Given a dry air mass in place within the lower levels of the
atmosphere, we expect VFR to continue through at least 18z
Sunday, and very likely beyond.

As for the winds, they`ll stay gusty out of the NW for the rest
of the daylight hours (gusts of up to 25-30 kt). Winds will then
diminish quickly from about 00-02z this evening.


Sunday night through Monday night...VFR.

Tuesday through Thursday...We expect mostly VFR to continue.
However, there is still a chance of restrictions in snow at KAVP
on Tuesday, as a storm system moves by to our south.




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