Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
700 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Issued at 441 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

A weak upper level disturbance will bring chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms today. Highs today will be in the 80s.
High pressure then builds in for Sunday and Monday with mostly
sunny skies and hot afternoon highs of around 90 degrees each
day. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return by next
Wednesday and Thursday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Weak shortwave trough passage along with potential mesoscale
convective vorticity moving eastward out of northwest IL into CWA
later/midday, along with current weak shower activity across
western half of CWA sufficient for continued high level pop/lesser
TSRA potential with coverage wording through today. Concern that
degree of convective debris to limit max temp potential to similar
values to yesterday. Weak flow/low values bulk deep layer shear
and modest instability should greatly limit storm coverage/
organization and timing of shortwave passage downstream into
Lower Great Lakes this evening/coincident with diurnal instability
cycle to bring early evening quell to convective potential.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 411 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Rexing block to north of remnants of Alberto to yield
hot/humid/yet dry conditions for latter part of holiday period.
Best chances for convection about midweek (Wed into Thu) as
system lift northward into the Lower Ohio Valley and becomes
increasingly diffuse. Potential incursion of northern stream
system dropping southward into the Upper Great Lakes for nominal
pops persisting Friday afternoon into Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Weak disturbance entering the area and allowing for some uptick in
coverage and intensity of showers, being handled by tempo groups
for now. Any showers should remain generally scattered with a
rumble of thunder possible, especially late AM into this
afternoon at KFWA. Some concerns on exact coverage and location of
activity this afternoon so will not add any mention and defer to
day shift. Once the disturbance is gone (late afternoon-ish) skies
should clear and quiet conditions will prevail.




LONG TERM...Murphy

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