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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241336
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
936 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
With clear skies overhead, temperatures along the Florida Keys are
already up against 80 at 13Z, with dewpoint temperatures in the
low 70s. Winds along the islands and marine platforms are
generally 5 knots or less from the southwest. Key West radar is
finding a broken line of showers well to our northwest associated
with the weak cool front. Individual cells along the line are
moving towards the northeast, but the line relative to the islands
is approaching at about 15 knots. If the broken line holds
together, simple extrapolation would put the showers in the Lower
Keys late this evening.

.SHORT TERM...
Mos guidance has been very bullish on precipitation this evening
and Wednesday morning, with high chance PoPs advertised. Model
soundings do show a fairly moist lower layer through about 15 kft
beginning around 03-06Z. Since there appears to be sufficient
boundary layer moisture with a boundary in the area to focus
confluence, will hold PoPs at low chance for tonight and Wednesday
morning. Winds will remain light from the southwest to west until
the boundary pushes through and then veer to the northwest and
pick up slightly.

&&

.MARINE...
Through the remainder of today, a light to gentle southwest breeze
will prevail over all Florida Keys coastal waters. No shower or
thunderstorms will occur through the day. Overnight to Wednesday
morning, a weak cool front will push into the area, with winds
clocking to the northwest. There will be a chance of showers
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at EYW/MTH today. Tonight, episodes of
MVFR may occur with passing showers, with the risk highest between
25/06z-25/12z. Expect southwesterly flow to shift to the west this
afternoon, and to the northwest late tonight, with sustained flow of
5-10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With temperatures getting into the mid 80s, relative humidities
will drop into the mid 60s this afternoon, with relative
humidities in the upper 50s possible. Winds will remain light out
of the southwest for the rest of today, veering to the west then
northwest overnight into Wednesday morning. There is a chance of
showers overnight and Wednesday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Key West weather history, in 2015, the high
temperature in Key West was 89 degrees. This set the daily record
for maximum temperature measured in Key West on April 24th. Will we
be able to break this record today? Stay tuned. Temperature records
at Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...Devanas
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN
Data Collection......99

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