Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 261930
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong mid-level area of low pressure will move across the region and
to the north overnight. Another weak cold front will cross the area
late Saturday followed by strong high pressure building over the area
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 325 PM Thursday...Showers have failed to develop on the
sea breeze through mid afternoon. Will maintain slight to low
chance PoPs into the evening as some of the high-resolution
guidance continues to show widely scattered shower development.
Closed low over Alabama will start to lift out to the east and
north tonight with deeper moisture and mid-level energy
approaching later tonight. Latest runs of the HRRR and 3km NAM
have been consistent all day in showing small area of showers
and perhaps a few tstms moving along the southern coast after
midnight. After about 08z or 09z, more widespread showers will
accompany the main upper low and have continued likely PoPs into
the early morning hours. Cloudiness, showers and southerly winds
should hold overnight lows in the mild upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 325 PM Thursday...Showers will be ongoing at the beginning
of the second period, but deep dry layer will descend in the
afternoon decreasing support for showers with lowering PoPs by
midday. With moderate SW flow, Friday will be a pleasantly warm
Spring afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s for most
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...Models remain in decent agreement during
period with several disturbances moving through Friday night into
Saturday, followed by upper low finally moving across to NE of
area late Sunday into early Monday. After brief cooling trend,
heights building surface and aloft will result in warming trend
Tue-Wed.


Friday Night and Saturday...Approaching elongated shortwave
trough will produce isolated convective threat over western and
northern sections Fri night. Models have trended drier for
Saturday with shortwave moving off coast early and have dropped
POPs given limited moisture and lift. Guidance has trended
warmer for max temps both days and raised highs to near 80
inland sections.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Dry cold front will move
through Sat night followed by initial surge of CAA late Sat
night into Sunday. Then strong but dry upper trough associated
with upper low will move through Sunday evening, resulting in
secondary CAA surge late Sun night into Mon morning. Cooling
trend will be short-lived as heights will be building quickly
Mon night into Tuesday with upper ridge extending over area from
S-SW. No precip expected through the period and main focus will
be temp forecast with readings 5-10 degs below normal for Sat
night through Mon night, then moderating to above normal
midweek. It is noted that ECMWF MOS is indicating min temps in
mid to upper 30s for Monday morning while GFS MOS supports lower
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 1245 PM Thursday...A few brief showers may occur along the
sea breeze through the afternoon, but should have minimal impact
on the TAFs and VFR conditions are expected into the late night
hours. Numerical guidance and time sections indicate a period of
possible MVFR ceilings/vsbys possible late tonight as low-level
flow becomes S/SW late tonight. VFR conditions should then
prevail from mid-morning into Friday afternoon.

Long Term /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...VFR expected most of period. Brief sub-
VFR possible with scattered showers/isolated tstms Friday Night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Friday/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...Leftover swell energy continues to
produce occasional 6 foot seas from Duck to Oregon Inlet to
Diamond Buoy at mid-afternoon. While there may a lull in the
seas tonight, as a strong mid-level disturbance approaches from
the west overnight, southerly winds will increase to 10-20
knots, pushing seas to 6 feet once again, particularly over the
outer periphery of the coastal waters. As a result, have opted
to go ahead a start Small Craft Advisory for all coastal waters
now and run through Friday evening. Seas should diminish below 6
feet by early evening Friday.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...A weak front will result in a brief
wind shift late Fri night into Saturday, then a stronger front
will move through Saturday night followed by a northerly surge
of 15-20 KT winds Sunday. Secondary front moving through Sunday
night will result in another period of NW 15-20 KT winds early
Monday.

Seas will gradually subside to 3-4 ft by late Saturday and
persisting into Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CTC/JBM
MARINE...CTC/JBM


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