Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 230132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
232 PM SST Sun Apr 22 2018

.Short term...
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A developing surface trough to
the ESE of Manu`a will generate moderate to heavy showers and a
chance of thunderstorms near Manu`a through the next 24 to 36
hours. Meanwhile, another surface trough embedded within the
tradewind flow to the west-southwest of Savaii and Upolu will
trigger heavy showers and thunderstorms just outside of the Samoa
AOR. Perhaps, this trough will either merge with the expected
trough east of Manu`a during Monday or remain southwest of the
region. In case these two troughs merge, then inclement weather
conditions will impact the Samoan Islands through short term.
For now, anticipate scattered to numerous showers and a chance of
thunderstorms. Will keep an eye on this situation and provide
updates as future computer models become available.

.Long term...
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS shows a strong signature of at
least two surface troughs near the area during Wednesday and
Wednesday night. These troughs will induce wet weather conditions
near or above the forecast zones during the first 24 to 36 hours.

A predominant trough to the east of Manu`a will shift to the
east-southeast on Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. As
soon as this trough moves farther away from the area, gentle to
moderate trades will enter the region before the weekend. Thus,
anticipate scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms
through Thursday afternoon. If models are correct, wet conditions
will let up before the weekend.


.Marine...Gentle to moderate sea conditions will persist through
the midweek. Thus, anticipate sea heights of 4 to 6 feet over the
next several days.




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