Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 170006 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
706 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. West-
southwest winds this evening will back to south-southwest tonight.
On Saturday morning, a weak cold front will move south into the
Big Country, shifting winds to the northeast for a few hours at
KABI. Elsewhere, south winds will veer to the southwest and
increase to 10-15 knots in the afternoon. Occasional gusts to
around 20 knots are expected at KSJT, KSOA and KBBD.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/

(Tonight and tomorrow)

..Fire weather concerns remain in the forecast...

The red flag warning currently in effect across the northern Big
Country will expire by mid evening. The dryline will retreat west
during the evening and relative humidity values will increase above
20 percent. Winds will also diminish to below 5 mph after sunset.
Overnight lows will vary across the region. Areas along the
Interstate 10 corridor will see increasing cloud coverage overnight
and will keep overnight temperatures warm. Lows across these areas
will be in the mid to upper 50s. For everyone else, the less cloud
coverage across the Concho Valley and Big Country will allow
temperatures to to cool into the upper 40s to low 50s.

The warm and dry weather will continue on Saturday. A weak surface
low will move into west central Texas Saturday afternoon. Warm,
westerly downsloping winds will bring dry air back into the region.
Decreasing clouds across the Concho Valley and Interstate 10
corridor will allow temperatures to jump into the mid to upper 80s.
Expecting a thicker cloud canopy across the Big Country associated
with the surface low. This will keep temperatures in the low to mid
70s. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible tomorrow
afternoon. Winds should remain below red flag criteria. Both models
develop some isolated thunderstorms forming ahead of a Pacific front
tomorrow afternoon. The best chances for rain will be along and east
of a Brownwood to Junction line.

(Saturday Night through Friday)

A few showers and storms will remain possible across the eastern
portions of the area on Saturday evening, mainly east of a Brady
to Junction line. Dryline wont budge a lot Saturday night, and
then surge out of the area Sunday morning. West winds will
develop behind the dryline Sunday afternoon and then start to
increase even more early Sunday evening as the Pacific cold front
moves across the area. Combination of west winds and humidity
values tanking in the afternoon will make for fire weather
concerns as the main issue in the forecast.

Downslope west winds behind the dryline will allow temperatures to
soar well into the mid and upper 80s on Sunday afternoon, before
a cooler air mass settles into the area for early next week. With
the dry air mass in place, lows will drop into the 40s and maybe
even the 30s by Tuesday morning. Highs in 60s and 70s next week.

Expect critical fire weather conditions to persist into the early
evening, for some of our Big Country counties north of Interstate
20. A Red Flag Warning is in effect, from noon until 6 PM CDT, today
for those counties. Elsewhere this afternoon, look for elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions. A Pacific front will move
across West Central Texas Sunday afternoon. Very dry air and gusty
west winds will develop behind the front Sunday afternoon. Minimum
relative humidity values will be in the 8 to 14 percent range on
Sunday. West winds between 20 to 25 mph with gusts exceeding 30 mph
will be possible. The highest threat for fire weather will be along
and west of a Haskell to Ozona line, this includes the city of San
Angelo. A fire weather watch has been issued for these areas
beginning Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Dry air will remain
across the region behind the dryline on Monday. Minimum relative
humidity values will be in the 12 to 22 percent range across the
entire region. Winds will be from the west between 15 and 20 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph.


Abilene  50  81  54  85 /   0  20  10  10
San Angelo  53  85  55  87 /   0  10  10  10
Junction  55  85  57  88 /   0  20  20  10
Brownwood  51  83  57  86 /   0  30  20  10
Sweetwater  51  77  55  84 /   0   5  10  10
Ozona       53  83  55  84 /   0   5  10  10


Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Coke-Crockett-Fisher-Irion-Nolan-Sterling-Tom Green.


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