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000
FXUS64 KSJT 251920
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
220 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...The main concern in the short term is severe weather chances
tonight...

A somewhat complicated forecast on tap for tonight with
potentially two areas of thunderstorms developing late tonight and
affecting much of the area. Currently, there is an upper level
low moving northeast from northern AZ that will make its way into
the northern central plains by Friday morning. Upper level
shortwave energy will rotate around this low through our area
tonight with an attendant 500mb speed max as well. In the lower
levels, a stout LLJ of 40 to 50 knots is expected to develop after
sunset. At the surface, we continue to have southerly winds
keeping the surface air mass moist and unstable. The dryline is
also expected to tighten up to our west this afternoon.

For late this afternoon, a few of the short range CAMs have
indicated the possibility of an isolated storm developing just
west of the Concho Valley, and moving east/northeast into the
western and northern Concho Valley this evening.

Later tonight (likely after Midnight), as the previously
mentioned upper level low and shortwave energy/speed max moves
east into our area, a Pacific cold front/dryline will also become
organized and move into our area. This should result in one or
two linear cluster of thunderstorms developing around midnight
tonight. There is higher confidence in a line of storms developing
along and north of Interstate 20 west of Sweetwater, and moving
east northeast through the Big Country, with the southern extent
of this line near the I-20 corridor. There is lesser confidence in
a second line developing in the western Concho Valley and moving
east through the Concho Valley and into the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country areas. With either line of storms, all
modes of severe weather will be possible, including hail of up to
2.5 inches, damaging wind gusts over 60 mph, and isolated
tornadoes.

Storms are expected to largely move out of the area by 9 AM or
possibly a little earlier, with skies clearing from west to east
throughout the day. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s to
near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across
far southeast portions of the forecast area but should move east
of the area by late morning. The dryline is expected to stall over
southeast counties Friday afternoon. Isolated strong convection
may develop along the dryline during peak heating, but the bulk of
any thunderstorm development should remain east of the area into
the evening hours.

Rich low level moisture will rapidly return across the area
Friday night, as the dryline retreats westward, ahead of the next
mid/upper level trough developing over the Desert Southwest. This
system will bring the potential for additional severe
thunderstorms to the area from Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night/early Sunday morning. Low level and deep layer shear will
increase considerably across the area, especially Saturday
evening/overnight, with moderate to strong instability developing
in the warm sector by Saturday afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms may develop as early as Saturday morning, primarily
across the Big Country, but more widespread thunderstorm
development is expected along and ahead of the the dryline
Saturday afternoon and early evening. Shear profiles will support
supercells with large to very large hail and some tornadoes. The
tornado threat may increase Saturday evening, with the potential
for a few strong tornadoes as the low level jet strengthens and
low level shear increases. At this time it appears the greatest
tornado threat will be across eastern portions of the Big Country.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
over much of the area overnight, with a continued severe threat.
Precipitation is expected to diminish over southeast counties
Sunday morning.

For early next week, low rain chances will be possible mainly
over southeast counties Monday and Tuesday afternoon but most of
the area should remain dry. Another shortwave trough may bring
additional showers and thunderstorms to the area by mid week but
details are uncertain this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Currently, we have MVFR ceilings at KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA, with VFR
at KABI and KSJT. Expect all sites to improve to VFR in the next
couple hours. MVFR ceilings should move back into the area between
03Z and 06Z tonight. In addition, a line of thunderstorms, some
possibly severe, are expected to move through the region tonight
after Midnight. So, have kept the VCTS in at most sites, but have
also added some PROB30 groups for TSRA at KSJT and KABI tonight
between 09Z and 12Z. Once this line of storms moves through the
area, expect conditions to improve to VFR between 12Z and 16Z
Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  86  63  81 /  70  10  10  50
San Angelo  64  89  63  89 /  60  10  10  20
Junction    68  92  67  89 /  30  20   0  20
Brownwood   66  87  65  79 /  70  60  10  50
Sweetwater  62  85  62  85 /  60   0  10  40
Ozona       64  88  65  88 /  40   0  10  10
Brady       67  87  67  81 /  50  30  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20