Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 171517

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

The previous forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See
discussion below for details.

..Leitman.. 03/17/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

A large-scale upper trough/low will move slowly eastward across the
western CONUS today. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level winds
will overspread the southern/central High Plains by this afternoon.
At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will occur across eastern CO, with
a trough extending southward from this low across the southern High
Plains. A cold front should become nearly stationary across west TX
and the TX/OK Panhandles by late this afternoon. This front will
likely serve as the eastern limit of fire-weather concerns across
the southern High Plains today.

...Portions of the Southern/Central High Plains...
Sustained southerly to southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph will likely
develop from southern NM and vicinity into parts of west TX, the
TX/OK Panhandles, and southeastern CO as the modestly enhanced
mid-level winds mentioned above become diurnally mixed to the
surface. RH values will become lowered into generally the 10-25%
range for at least a few hours this afternoon as downslope
trajectories act to warm and dry the low levels. Elevated fire
weather conditions are expected to develop given the dry fuels
across this region. Locally critical conditions will be possible
across parts of northeastern NM into southeastern CO where winds may
briefly exceed 20 mph in conjunction with RH values around 10-15%.

...Please see for graphic product...

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