Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 110852
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
152 AM PDT Tue May 11 2021

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A ridge of high pressure off
the coast will begin nudging further inland today. The ridge will
flatten on Wednesday and Thursday as a couple of system pass to the
north of the area. This pattern will lead to warming temperatures
today and Wednesday then holding steady on Thursday. No
precipitation is expected across the forecast area during this time
but there will be some occasional cloudiness caused by the systems
passing to the north. Overall winds will be light through Wednesday
and then some locally breezy conditions Thursday along the east
slopes of the Cascades and Columbia Gorge area.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Models have been trending
dryer and warmer for the weekend, in light of both the deterministic
GFS and ECMWF depicting a weak shortwave pushing onshore late Friday
night into Saturday. Ensembles agree in depicting a very weak system
that may produce a marginal chance of light upslope showers over the
far eastern mountains, but expecting the weekend forecast to remain
dry.

Ensembles diverge substantially late Saturday onward, with
deterministic guidance bringing in a transitory ridge that would
make for a warm and dry Sunday, with highs in the lower Basin
approaching the upper 80s. Some ensemble members depict Saturday`s
low cutting off and digging south into California, although this
feature is not consistently depicted across the models. Mostly dry
and quiet weather looks to be in store for the majority of the long
term, with forecast confidence decreasing dramatically beyond the
weekend. Need better model consistency in order to dial in on
details for the end of the long term, but no significant sensible
weather impacts anticipated through the weekend at this time. 74



&&

.AVIATION...12z TAFs...VFR conditions expected with light, terrain-
driven winds generally less than 10 kts. Few-sct high clouds over 20
kft for most of the day Tuesday, but overall expecting fair
conditions. 74


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  75  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  76  50  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  80  51  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  77  49  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  80  47  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  72  45  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  76  38  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  70  42  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  72  45  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  80  51  83  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74


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