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000
FXUS66 KPDT 270948
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
248 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night. Water vapor imagery and
radar showing upper low centered along the northern Oregon coast
early this morning. Precipitation has diminished significantly
overnight with just a few showers now on radar. The upper low will
remain nearly stationary today with unstable southwesterly flow
over the region. Temperatures aloft are cooler than yesterday.
Expect showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop later in the
day and continue into the evening. Precipitation will decrease
overnight with skies remaining partly to mostly cloudy. The upper
low moves slowly northeast across the region on Friday. The
airmass remains unstable and expect showers and scattered
thunderstorms again. Models continue to indicate an upper trough
over the area on Saturday with partly to mostly cloudy skies and
scattered showers. Temperatures remain well below normal for the
end of June with highs only in the 60s to mid 70s. Should be a
little warmer on Saturday. 94

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models have come into
better consensus keeping the upper level ridge further west over the
central Pacific with a persistent trough sitting off the PacNW.
Net result for us will be continued westerly/southwesterly flow
aloft with periodic advection of some steeper mid-level lapse rates
as the southerly component of the flow is maximized. As a result,
could see some isolated showers/thunderstorms forming near the
Deschutes National Forest Sunday afternoon/evening, perhaps over
toward Wallowa County as well, but capping at the base of the
elevated mixed layer may prevent storms from firing there. There
will be a little better chance of some storms near the Blue
Mountains and perhaps some instability showers along the east slopes
of the Washington Cascades near Snoqualmie pass Monday
afternoon/evening as the upper low drifts onshore, but at this point
would expect minimal impacts. The remainder of the forecast should
be mostly dry especially for the lower elevations where limited
surface moisture will limit much surface based instability, but
could see some additional afternoon mountain showers with any weak
shortwaves riding around the longwave trough. Temperatures will be
warming through the week, although a bit less so than previously
forecast with a continued troughy pattern. Onshore flow will result
in late afternoon/evening breezy winds through and downwind of gaps
through the Cascades beginning Monday as cross mountain thermal
gradients approach 10 degrees. Peck

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFs...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue across the region today as weak disturbances continue to
rotate around the upper low offshore. The best coverage will be near
the Cascades and Blue Mountains but storms will likely drift off the
higher terrain potentially impacting all sites. Any convection
likely ends by 06Z. Winds mostly 10KTs or less aside from a few
hours of thermal gradient equalization gustiness near the Cascades
and gusty erratic winds near any showers/thunderstorms. Peck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  71  48  72  46 /  30  30  20  10
ALW  72  51  75  50 /  40  30  20  10
PSC  76  52  77  51 /  30  30  10  10
YKM  72  49  73  48 /  40  40  30  20
HRI  74  52  77  49 /  30  30  10  10
ELN  67  47  68  46 /  60  60  40  20
RDM  67  40  68  40 /  50  50  20  10
LGD  65  44  68  43 /  70  70  30  30
GCD  67  43  68  43 /  60  60  20  20
DLS  69  52  72  51 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

94/74/74