Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 271955
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
355 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
More widespread rainfall develops tonight into Thursday,
especially south and east of the Capital District, as a coastal
low tracks up the East Coast. While we dry out by Friday, breezy
conditions linger through Saturday as the coastal low deepens
in the Canadian Maritime.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Band of showers over eastern NY and entering western New England
is slow to push east. There is some clearing in central and
western that is expected to remain nearly stationary as upper
energy in the Great Lakes approaches, increasing the moisture
and thermal forcing ahead of the lading edge of stronger cold
advection. So, clouds and showers should develop in the zone of
clearing and merge with the current zone of showers when it is
in western New England late tonight.

So, the best coverage of showers will shift into western New
England through the night and new scattered showers will develop
and track into eastern NY as well. A weak wind shift boundary
well ahead of the leading edge of deeper cold advection should
track through our region between midnight and daybreak. CLouds
and showers should prevent temperatures from drop too much.
Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s with some mid 30s higher
terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers will slowly shift east through the day Thursday,
reaching western New England by evening and exiting western New
England during the evening. When the showers end, clouds
will linger, and as the cold air begins to spread into the
region, temperatures will not warm much through the day. Highs
Thursday in the mid to upper 40s with lower 40s higher terrain.

Showers will likely end as some snow showers in the higher
terrain of the Berkshires and southern VT Thursday night. The
cold air will continue to spread into our region through the day
Friday as the low pressure off New England deepens rapidly,
tightening the pressure gradient across our region, resulting in
a very gusty day Friday. We will have to keep an eye on
potential wind gusts exceeding 40 mph in some areas. Some lake
effect clouds could limit sunshine Friday and highs will be in
the mid 40s to near 50 Friday with around 40 higher terrain.

Slight moderation of temperatures Saturday as the coldest air
lifts north as upper heights rise a bit. A northern stream upper
impulse out of Canada is expected to approach later Saturday
afternoon with perhaps some increase in clouds. Highs Saturday
in the 50s with 40s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The northern stream upper impulse tracks through our region
Saturday night into early Sunday with some scattered showers,
and rain and snow showers in higher terrain. Dry weather and
more moderation in temperatures with weak warm advection Monday.

Highs Sunday in the 50s with around 40 to lower 40s higher
terrain. Highs Monday in the 50s with mid 40s higher terrain.

The next phasing northern and southern stream upper energy
approaches Tuesday and Wednesday with showers both days. Highs
Tuesday in the 405 to near 50. Highs Wednesday in the 40s with
around 40 higher terrain. Some mix with snow showers at night in
higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front very slowly building east and steadier showers will
affect the TAF sites through this afternoon but intervals of
showers still possible through the night, with coverage
decreasing to chances between about 03Z to 12Z. Conditions
begin as VFR but rain will increase low level moisture and MVFR
ceilings and visibilities will become more dominant by 22Z-24Z,
and continue through the rest of the night. Ceilings may become
IFR in any intervals of showers tonight and may become
predominant later tonight.

Winds will be light and variable much of the night. becoming
northwest at less than 6 Kt after midnight.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS


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