Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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270 FXUS64 KAMA 080525 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1225 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Today the main upper trough has ejected eastward and zonal flow has taken its place across the region. A rising thermal gradient is expected today, with the aid of downsloping winds. Tomorrow, a couple of surface lows will traverse across the High Plains and frontal boundaries will be generated ahead of these features. Low level winds will switch from the north and remain that way throughout most of the day. Critical fire weather conditions continue through the afternoon today. RFTI values up to 8 are expected to be met based off of very low RH values and strong, southwesterly surface winds. Today the wind speeds will be slightly lower that what was experienced yesterday, but gusts can still reach 40 mph or greater in some areas within the western combined Panhandles. RH recovery has been minimal behind yesterday`s surface trough/dryline, so minimum RH percentages will be in the single digits for many places in the Panhandles today. With 850 mb temperatures rising above 20 degrees Celsius, we should see a plethora of surface highs in the 80`s today, even some upper 80`s for the southern Texas Panhandle and Canadian River Valley. Tomorrow, some elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may be present again for the far western Panhandles, but with sustained winds being northerly and generally light, fire weather products are not being considered at this time. With the passing of the fronts, high temperatures will be slightly reduced for the CWA. The southern half will see highs in the lower 80`s, and the northern zones will see highs drop to the 70`s. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A dry start to the long term forecast period as WSW H500 flow continues across the Panhandles in the wake of a passing cold front with cooling temperatures in its wake. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be slightly below average for early May. Going into the coming weekend through early next week, our rain and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase. Latest 07/12Z model and numerical guidance shows a cut off low developing from a deepening H500 positive tilted trough near the Four Corners Region. As the main cut off low drifts southeast and ingest decent H850-700 theta-e and sfc moisture transport, this should aid our rain chances overall across the Panhandles as the main system tracks directly over the Panhandles by the second half of the weekend. At this time, instability looks rather limited with the main low`s track. But still cant rule out some general thunderstorms with colder air aloft. But none-the-less, rain chances through the end of the forecast period is good news for all (although PoPs at this time are at or less than 40%). High temperatures this weekend into early next week will remain near to slightly below average for this time of year. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions are expected with this TAF cycle. A weak front will switch winds to out of the north with gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range for a few hours behind the front. Winds will eventually become westerly to southwesterly late in the morning with gusts up to 25 kts for KDHT/KAMA. Another front will switch winds back to out of the north to northeast starting at KGUY before 00z. All sites will have northerly winds once again by the end of this TAF period. Mostly clear skies are forecast for the terminals. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 81 48 73 45 / 0 0 0 10 Beaver OK 77 46 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 74 42 67 41 / 0 0 10 10 Borger TX 83 50 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 83 48 74 44 / 0 0 0 10 Canyon TX 82 47 73 44 / 0 0 0 10 Clarendon TX 82 50 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 78 42 70 39 / 0 0 0 10 Guymon OK 76 44 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 82 47 74 44 / 0 0 0 10 Lipscomb TX 79 48 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 80 48 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 82 50 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 82 51 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...05