National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KAPX 130048
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
848 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slowly subsiding winds, rain ends.

- Chance for rain Saturday night, could be a few rumbles of thunder.

- Mild temperatures early to mid next week with another shot of
  rain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Exiting surface low has moved into western Quebec. Winds have
diminished enough in nw lower MI to lower the wind advisory
there. Both PLN/APN/MBS had advisory level gusts (or close to
it) in the past hour; left them and the eastern UP up a bit
longer. Anticipate more of the advisory getting canned later in
the evening.

Rain is on pace to move off the ne lower MI and Drummond Isl
over the next hour.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

All eyes directed at one deep (and deepening) circa 978mb low
pressure working its way slowly north on the east side Georgian Bay
early this afternoon. Aggressive deformation/trowal within attendant
deep mid level troughing brought widespread light and moderate rain
to much of the Northwoods last night through this morning. High
pressure and drying through the vertical resulting in a steady decay
of this precipitation from west to east across the region early this
afternoon. Perhaps bigger story with this system is the gusty winds,
with one impressive pressure gradient resulting in sustained winds
often in excess of 20 mph, with gusts up into the 40s (even a few
gusts in excess of 50 mph along the Lake Huron coast!).

Significant changes expected as we head through tonight as eastern
lakes low pressure begins to pick up its northeast pace. Surface
high pressure and increasing mid level heights will build steadily
in behind this departing system, setting the stage for a decent
start to the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Lingering rain and wind evolution.

Details:

Drying will continue to aggressively spread east this evening,
ending the rain threat by early this evening. Clouds will be a bit
slower to mix out, but vertical moisture profiles do support skies
becoming mostly clear across at least western areas by sunrise
Saturday. Northwest winds will also slowly subside, but still
looking at wind advisory gusts into this evening, with the strongest
winds likely near the Lake Huron coast where gusts may approach 50
mph at times. A bit chillier tonight, with lows ranging through the
30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Low pressure system producing the rain showers today (Friday) will
continue to pull away on Saturday as heights rise and northwest flow
aloft takes over. Vort max within the flow aloft, coupled with a sfc
low, will move across the Great Lakes Region Saturday night. Rain
showers largely expected but there could be some convective activity
especially the farther south you go. By midday to afternoon Sunday,
system ejects eastward and precipitation wanes. Northwest flow
remains on Monday, with dry and mild conditions.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Expect much nicer conditions on Saturday as the rain maker pulls
away from the region. Winds will remain breezy, however, but waning
towards the late afternoon and evening. Next upper level
perturbation swings through Saturday night with the chance for
showers. Latest guidance suggests a corridor of elevated
instability, favoring portions of northern lower, especially the
farther south you go. Thus, could see some convective precipitation
Saturday night. Not expecting a ton of accumulation though, but any
additional rainfall will be beneficial rains and help with fire
weather concerns. Mild temperatures expected this weekend into
Monday with values in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Next storm system takes shape early to mid next week as an upper low
lifts out of the Plains States then into the western Lakes. Sfc low
pressure to follow suit tracking somewhere in the vicinity of
northern Michigan. Still appreciable spread within ensemble guidance
on exact track, which will determine exactly how much precip we get,
but probabilities (good chance for >0.5") suggest another good
wetting rain will be possible for the region (could even be some
thunder...something to watch). Another lobe of energy will swing on
down behind this initial low pressure, suggesting precipitation may
linger well into the mid to late next week time period (if the
current guidance has any clue). This next system, at least
initially, will be mild, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s most
locations through Thursday of next week. Winds will be breezy as
well as the low pressure system approaches and moves through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Improving conditions this evening.

Deep low pressure is moving east across western Quebec.
Precipitation is exiting, will move east of APN in the initial
hour of the TAF forecast. Cigs/vsbys quickly improve with it.
VFR expected for the TAF period.

Gusty nw winds will gradually diminish tonight and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale force northwest winds will slowly subside from west to east
tonight, with gale conditions ending last on Lake Huron early
Saturday morning. Trends support sub-advisory conditions returning
later Saturday through the weekend.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ016>018-022>024-
     028>030-034>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345-346-349.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ341-342.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSB