Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 280743
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
343 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley today and remain in place through Saturday morning,
providing a stretch of dry and cool weather. Low pressure will then
move across the southern Great Lakes late Saturday through early
Sunday, bringing a chance of some rain and wet snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar imagery showing a few weak returns east of Lake Ontario early
this morning as a cold front gradually moves east across the area.
This front may produce a few spotty sprinkles through daybreak east
of Lake Ontario, otherwise dry weather will prevail with mostly
cloudy skies through early this morning.

A mid level trough will advance from the upper Great Lakes this
morning to the lower Great Lakes tonight. Despite the cold advection
and height falls, the airmass is quite dry over the Great Lakes,
with the lack of moisture preventing a lake response strong enough
to produce any precip.

Clouds from the exiting cold front will linger across the eastern
Lake Ontario region today through tonight as a secondary coastal low
moves NNE just off the east coast. Meanwhile across Western NY, some
partial clearing will occur today, but cool air aloft will promote
plenty of diurnal cumulus this afternoon away from stable lake
shadows. Western NY will see partial clearing tonight, but clouds
will hold much of the night east of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will be very close to average today, with highs in the
mid to upper 40s for lower elevations and lower 40s on the hills.
Lows tonight will drop back into the upper 20s to lower 30s in most
locations, with some mid 20s for the typical cooler spots in the
Southern Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the axis of a mid level trough, mid level ridging will push
towards the eastern Great Lakes Friday. Brisk, northwest flow Friday
with a mix of clouds and sun.

A pair of shortwaves will bring some unsettled weather to start the
Easter weekend. Initial shortwave will form a surface low over the
Ohio Valley. Left exit region of a 250 hPa 100 knot jet spanning the
Plains will bring large scale lift for an area of light rain, with
this activity brushing by SW NYS Saturday. This activity will slide
east-southeast, following 500 hPa heights. Meanwhile a second
shortwave will cross our region Saturday night, bringing light rain
and snow showers to our region. This activity will exit east of Lake
Ontario early Sunday morning, leaving our region dry for the
remainder of Easter Sunday.

Coldest temperatures this period will be Friday night, where some
clearing and dry lower atmosphere could allow for lows in the mid
to low 20s inland to upper 20s closer to the Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A deep upper level trough over the Rockies Monday will eject a storm
system across the Plains. There are still plenty of model
differences, with the 00Z GFS tracking a deepening low by to our
west and north Tuesday night and Wednesday, with warm air surging
northward ahead of the low. Meanwhile the 00Z ECMWF and Canadian
suppress this system to our south, with an upper level trough over
the region by Wednesday lending to cooler air temperatures, and
perhaps some snow showers later in the day. Precipitation, chances
Monday near the state line with isentropic lift, will become likely
for Tuesday and Wednesday as the storm nears our region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will move east of the eastern Lake Ontario region this
morning. A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGS will linger behind the front
this morning, with MVFR favored for higher terrain and VFR for lower
elevations. Some partial clearing may try to develop across Western
NY later this morning, but diurnal cumulus will fill back in this
afternoon with mainly VFR bases.

High pressure will build into the region tonight with gradual
clearing across Western NY. VFR clouds will persist east of Lake
Ontario as low pressure moves NNE just off the east coast.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.
Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with rain and wet snow.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR early with a chance of rain and snow showers,
improving to VFR.
Monday...VFR to MVFR with a chance of rain.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds this morning will back to the southwest this afternoon,
then become northwest tonight through Friday. Winds will be strong
enough to produce some chop on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, but winds
and waves will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through tonight.

A period of stronger WNW winds will develop on Lake Ontario Friday
through Friday night, with solid Small Craft Advisory conditions on
the central and eastern portion of Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock


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