175
FXUS64 KEPZ 121716
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1116 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Quiet weather conditions are expected through Tuesday before a
storm system across the Southwest brings showers and thunderstorms
to the mountains on Wednesday and Thursday. The winds will be
breezy to windy today then light to breezy the rest of the period.
The temperatures will be near the normal except on Tuesday and
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Currently, the skies are mostly clear with the winds at the
surface light to breezy and the temperatures on the mild side.
For today, we will be at the base of a trough of low pressure
that will be centered to our north and northeast. Dry air
intrusion is expected, which will bring quiet weather to our area.
As this trough moves on by, the winds will increase at surface.
There will be some mixing from aloft down to the surface during
the day that will aide in breezy to windy conditions. The skies
will be sunny in the morning then become partly cloudy especially
across the northern portions of our CWA. With strong winds and
mostly sunny skies, high temperatures this afternoon will be below
the normal for this time of the year. By tonight, the atmosphere
will decouple, which will allow the winds to relax a bit. The
skies will become generally clear especially after midnight. Due
to this, the low temperatures on Monday morning will be at and
below the normal for certain lowland areas and vice versa in the
mountains.

For the rest of the period, mostly quiet weather is expected
except for the middle of the week in the mountains. Until then,
mainly quiet. However, some models like the GFS is hinting on the
possibility of some weakness in the ridge on Monday building
behind the trough of low pressure moving into the Plains. As of
now, there is a mentioned of just a slight chance for showers
mainly across the Otero Mountains. By the middle of the week, a
another low pressure trough, this time located further south
across the far Southwest will bring showers and thunderstorms
mainly to the mountains as it gradually through move over our
area. At first, it will slowly move as it will be closed-off.
However, it will open up into a wave on Thursday and quickly exit
our region overnight Thursday into Friday morning. There are some
differences in the long range models. The GFS suggests the trough
moves out by Friday, but still an embedded shortwave will bring
some precipitation across parts of the CWA while the ECMWF
suggests a secondary dry closed off located further south across
the Baja California and northwestern Mexico overnight Friday into
Saturday morning. Due to this uncertainty with the models, the
chance for precipitation was left out beyond Thursday afternoon.
The winds will be light to breezy and the temperatures near the
normal expect on Tuesday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

VMC through forecast period under northwest flow aloft. Skies
generally SKC-FEW120 this afternoon with greater mid level cloud
coverage north into central New Mexico. Surface winds 260-290 at
15 to 20 knots this afternoon with peak gusts to 30 knots around
21Z. Winds subside this evening, generally 280-320 at 05-10 knots
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

For today, the dry air will be in place. The winds will be breezy
to windy and temperatures at and below the normal. Tonight
recovery will be fair to good. For Monday, dry air will continue
to be in place; however, there will be a slight uptick in
moisture. The 20ft winds will be light and temperatures near the
normal. Monday overnight recovery will be slightly better than
tonight recover, but still fair to good. For the rest of the
period, expected quiet conditions on Tuesday, but somewhat active
on Wednesday and Thursday mainly in the mountains. The winds will
be light to breezy and temperatures continuing to be near the
normal. With that being said,fire weather conditions will be
elevated to near critical today and on Wednesday and mainly elevated
the rest of period.

The min RHs today will be below 15% in the lowlands, and between
16 and 22% in the mountains. The min RHs on Monday will continue
to be below 15% in the lowlands, but will increase 2 to 3% in the
mountains. The ventilation rates will be excellent today then very
good to excellent on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  87  61  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            80  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               85  54  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               82  51  85  54 /   0   0  10   0
Cloudcroft               58  39  62  42 /   0   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    82  54  84  57 /   0   0  10  10
Silver City              74  49  78  51 /   0   0  10   0
Deming                   83  51  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                81  51  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       83  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                84  51  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             87  53  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               77  54  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   86  56  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             82  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           83  60  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            82  49  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    84  50  87  52 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                 83  56  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                81  53  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  70  43  73  45 /   0   0  10   0
Mescalero                69  42  73  44 /   0   0  10   0
Timberon                 67  42  72  44 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                  74  46  77  49 /   0   0  10   0
Hillsboro                80  51  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                81  48  84  50 /   0  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             74  44  78  47 /   0   0  10   0
Hurley                   77  47  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    81  49  85  52 /   0   0  10   0
Mule Creek               77  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  76  49  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   82  50  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  82  52  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           81  50  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               76  50  80  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt