Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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891 FXUS65 KFGZ 091744 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1044 AM MST Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will slowly warm this week with isolated to scattered showers returning Friday through Sunday. Expect typical spring-like breezes each afternoon, and above normal temperatures returning by next week. && .UPDATE...Northeast winds this morning will slowly become southwest this afternoon as winds aloft mix to the surface. Update the temperatures today through Friday. Fires and burns in the area will produce smoke...locally thick at time. && .PREV DISCUSSION /422 AM MST/...A large area of low pressure continues to be centered over the Great Plains all while an area of high pressure begins to build over the Pacific Ocean. This pattern will leave Arizona in a zonal flow for today, before the backside of the elongated low breaks off and forms a closed low over AZ/UT on Friday. The main adjustment to the forecast with this upcoming closed low is isolated to scattered precipitation chances for far northern and eastern Arizona. The NBM is struggling to pick up chances for precipitation, but multiple hi-res guidance solutions seem to be in favor of mentionable precipitation north of I-40. As a result, a fair amount of blending/editing took place while working on the PoP grids for Friday afternoon, Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon. These precipitation chances may continue to increase as model guidance begins to show greater agreement, but for now, expect greatest chances for isolated to scattered showers along the Kaibab Plateau and near the Four Corners Friday through Sunday. The area of high pressure building over the Pacific Ocean will gradually push inland and force the closed low eastward. This transition looks to occur towards the end of the weekend and into next week. This will quickly ramp up temperatures across the High Country, with afternoon highs likely reaching 70+ degrees for many areas above 6000 feet. Winds still look to be typical spring-like breezes. Another disturbance may sneak into our neck of the woods by the middle of next week, but there is little confidence in that solution as of now. Check back for updates! && .AVIATION...Thursday 09/18Z through Friday 10/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions are expected with passing mid/high clouds today. Breezy E to NE winds will turn W to SW at 10-20 kts this afternoon for areas from KFLG south. N to NE winds persist for areas to the north. Visibility reductions are possible at times in the vicinity of KFLG due to smoke from a prescribed fire just south of the airport. OUTLOOK...Friday 10/18Z through Sunday 12/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions are forecast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible north of a KFLG-KRQE line each afternoon. Daytime winds W to SW 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts. Areas of smoke and haze are also possible due to area fires, including near KFLG. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Friday...Cool with breezy afternoons. Min RH 10 to 20% each day with moderate to good overnight recoveries. There will be just enough moisture for a low chance (10- 30%) of a shower or thunderstorm Friday afternoon mainly north of a Flagstaff-Window Rock line. Northeast wind 10-20 mph this morning, becoming southwest 15-25 mph this afternoon and again Friday afternoon. Saturday through Monday...Slight chances (10 to 30%) of showers and thunderstorms along the UT and NM borders Saturday afternoon, expanding to include all higher terrain of northern Arizona Sunday and Monday. Temperatures warm to above average Sunday and Monday with afternoon humidity of 10 to 20%. West-northwest winds 10-15 mph gusting 20-25 mph each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MAS/Konieczny AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...MCT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff