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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231018
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
318 AM MST Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and breezy conditions continue through today.
Cooler, more unsettled conditions then return for the second half
of the week, with a chance of showers Thursday and again late
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...Weak ridging remains in place over Arizona,
keeping another day of warm and dry conditions in store for Arizona.
Winds do increase a tad this afternoon from the southwest as an
approaching closed-low off the Pacific draws near. Winds should
still remain fairly typical however, with gusts generally under
20-30 mph.

Wednesday and Thursday...As the aforementioned low continues it`s
approach, heights fall and the pressure gradient begins to increase
on Wednesday. As a result, cooler and windier conditions are
expected. Peak afternoon look to top out around 25-35 mph, with some
gustier locations downwind of the terrain approaching 40 mph. Wind
should subside some overnight as the boundary layer decouples, but
areas immediately downwind of the terrain will likely remain gusty.
Stronger winds then set in on Thursday, with peak afternoon gusts of
30-40 mph expected.

While dry conditions remain on Wednesday, moisture advection begins
to increase overnight into Thursday. As a result, isolated to
scattered rain showers are expected to develop during the day
Thursday. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible during the
afternoon. However, with low-level dry air in place, this will not
be a wetting rain and a large majority of the area will remain dry.
Additionally, given the higher-based nature of these storms, brief
gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger
storm.

Friday through Monday...Drier conditions look to return for the
first part of Friday, with only a slight chance for a few
isolated showers mainly around the higher terrain of far northern
Arizona. Gusty southwest winds look to remain, with gusts of 30-40
mph likely.

As the next trough slides through the Great Basin, moisture and
upper-level dynamics increase. Thus, another round of rain and
possibly some high-elevation snow showers develop late Friday
into Saturday. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible
during the afternoon on Saturday. Ensemble members from the GEFS,
EPS, and CMCE all continue to be on the lighter side, with
rainfall amounts around 0.10-0.30 inches over the higher terrain
and less than a tenth of an inch (if anything) in the lower
elevations.

Warmer temperatures and less windy conditions look to return for the
start of next week, as zonal flow sets in behind the departing
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 23/06Z through Wednesday 24/06Z...Mostly VFR
conditions will continue through the TAF period. Areas of MVFR due
to FU/HZ possible near prescribed burns. Generally light winds
below 10 kts through ~16Z, with SW winds 10-20 kts gusting near 30
kts throughout the afternoon. Calmer conditions look to return
around 04Z Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 24/06Z through Friday 26/06Z...VFR conditions
will mostly persist, outside of MVFR ceilings/visibilities from
FU/HZ and isolated -SHRA on Thursday. Winds will generally be out
of the SW at 15-25 kts, gusting 30-40 kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Continued dry and warm.
Southwest winds 15-25 mph, with gusts from 30-35 mph each day, but
mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday...Much cooler temperatures, especially on
Saturday. A chance of high-based showers Thursday, wetting rain is
unlikely. Mainly dry for Friday, with a better chance of rain and
high elevation snow showers on Friday night and Saturday. Isolated
thunderstorms also possible. Southwest winds continue Thursday and
Friday at 15-25 mph, with gusts from 30-35 mph, a bit lighter on
Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff