National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXPQ50 PGUM 210842
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
642 PM ChST Sun Apr 21 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Moderate trades prevail, with filament clouds observed overhead. Seas
are about 4 to 6 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Pleasant weather brought by moderate, diffusive trade winds will
continue through the week. Mostly clear skies are expected during the
overnight hours.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas of 5 to 8 feet are expected through Wednesday, before
tapering down a foot or two in the latter half of the week. A
moderate risk of rip currents is expected along north and east facing
reefs this weekend and much of this week, with surf increasing
slightly along north reefs as northerly swell strengthens over the
next few days.

&&

.Fire weather...
No rain has fallen so far today, so the KBDI of 716 is expected to
continue to rise. There could be spotty showers at times, but
potential for wetting rains is very low. While the winds were near
criteria for a Red Flag Warning today, relative humidity was a little
high across the island. Even so, the Fire Weather Watch remains
valid through Monday evening, with a high chance of an upgrade to a
Red Flag Warning Monday.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
An active pattern will continue across the region as a band of
trade-wind convergence stretches westward from west-southwest of
Majuro across Chuuk into western Micronesia. This feature does appear
like an Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over a portion of the
band, from west of Pohnpei into western Micronesia, however, the
southerly wind component is lacking farther east, and the southerly
winds over the portion that resembles an ITCZ looks to be due to the
influence of a robust trade-wind trough moving through the region.
Regardless, this feature looks to maintain a wet pattern across
Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae for the next several days, with a lesser
affect for Majuro, as the atoll is near the far eastern end of the
band. For Majuro, a series of trade-wind troughs moving through with
only weak convergence over the atoll will result in POPs (Probability
of Precipitation) of 30 to 40 percent through most of the week and
through the weekend. The only exception will be Friday and Friday
night, when only 20 percent is expected due to no features moving
through at that time. As the first, and more robust, of these troughs
approaches Kosrae and Pohnpei, it will interact with the band of
convergence and is expected to result in likely showers midweek.
This same trough is expected to bring higher POPs to Chuuk as well
Thursday night into Friday. Otherwise, there will be a chance of
showers through the week for Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae. Instability
will be marginal, however, there is a risk of thunderstorms through
the work week at Majuro, Pohnpei and Kosrae; and through the weekend
at Chuuk.

Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected through the week at
Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae, with moderate to fresh winds at Majuro.
Winds could become occasionally strong Friday at Majuro. Combined
seas of 4 to 6 feet are expected through the week at all locations
except Majuro. Majuro can expect seas as high as 8 feet during the
week, with latest wave model guidance showing the possibility of
seas reaching near 10 feet Friday.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap...
A band of trade-wind convergence stretches westward from eastern
Micronesia across Chuuk into Palau, remaining south of Yap. Yap
Proper looks to remain dry for the next couple of days as the
convergence remains south of the island. For Palau, showers have
subsided for the evening, but look to move back into the Republic
early Monday morning ahead of an approaching, weak, trough. Then, an
overall wet pattern is expected for Palau for the next week. Around
midweek, the convergence looks to move close enough to Yap Proper to
bring scattered showers to the island. A 30 percent chance of showers
will then continue through the end of the week.

Overall benign marine conditions will continue for Palau and Yap.
Palau will see moderate to fresh trade winds becoming gentle to
moderate by Monday evening, while gentle to moderate winds are
expected at Yap. Seas of 4 to 6 feet will subside slightly, becoming
3 to 5 feet by midweek.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Fire Weather Watch through Monday evening for GUZ001.

MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Montvila
Micronesia: Kleeschulte