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000
FXPQ50 PGUM 190709
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
509 PM ChST Fri Apr 19 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Latest satellite imagery is showing partly cloudy skies and spotty
showers over the Marianas. A slight uptick in clouds and showers is
evident approaching from the south and east. Winds are gentle to
moderate across the region, with occasional fresh gusts for Guam.
Altimetry is showing seas between 4 to 6 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
The very dry pattern looks to continue across the Marianas through
the weekend and for most of next week. Models and latest CIMSS MIMIC
layer PWAT are showing deeper moisture being pulled north with an
increase in clouds and shower potential from later tonight through
Saturday evening. However, looking at satellite trends, any increase
looks to be trivial and kept shower coverage isolated. Otherwise
expect partly cloudy skies and spotty light showers Sunday onward
with no significant threat of rain in the offing.

&&

.Marine/Surf...
Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet expected through the weekend into next
week with a northeast to east trade swell and a background northerly
swell continuing. Gentle to moderate winds will slowly increase and
become generally moderate from Sunday into next week.

A moderate rip risk will continue for east facing reefs. The moderate
rip risk along north facing reefs could briefly drop to low on
Sunday, but should jump back up to moderate as the northerly swell
increases.

&&

.Fire Weather...
The very dry conditions continue with little to no rain over
the past few days. The KBDI currently sits at 710 and is expected
to climb higher. May see a slight uptick in clouds and showers
later tonight into Saturday, but a potential for a wetting rain
is nearly non-existent. Winds may be a touch higher Saturday than
Friday, and a bit higher yet on Sunday. After recent fires the past
two days, have decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday
through Monday. The best potential for Red Flag criteria being met
will be Sunday and Monday.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
A compact, albeit aggressive trade-wind convergence, will continue
to bring widespread shower coverage and some thunderstorms across
much of central and eastern Micronesia. Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae
will encounter heavier showers through much of the night and the
weekend, with showers expected to taper down by early next week.
Majuro, just like most of the Marshall Islands, will not see much in
shower coverage tonight, but on-and-off showers are expected to
return by Sunday, before diminishing slowly once again through the
middle of next week.

Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected at Chuuk, Pohnpei and
Kosrae through much of the forecast period. Majuro, on the other
hand, may see combined seas in the 6 to 9 foot range through at least
the first half of next week.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau...
A minor tropical disturbance embedded within the southwesternmost
sector of western Micronesia continues to induce a convergence zone
that will bring numerous showers and some thunderstorms to Palau
tonight, before slowly tapering down thereafter to become more patchy
in nature. Showers will remain minimal through Saturday across much
of Yap State, followed by a higher likelihood of some much-needed
rainfall to arrive from the east thereafter, as the aforementioned
trade-wind convergence moves in from Chuuk.

Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected to slowly diminish by 1 to
2 feet by the middle of next week.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Monday
     evening for GUZ001.

MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Marianas: Slagle
Micronesia: Montvila