Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
502 FXUS65 KLKN 102032 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 132 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 129 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 * Warming trend underway through at least Wednesday * Triple digit heat possible in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday * Low chances for isolated thunderstorm activity Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday afternoons across eastern Nevada && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 129 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Upper level ridge of high pressure will be the main weather maker for Nevada through at least Tuesday of next week. This ridge centered over the lower Colorado river valley, will build across the Great Basin region as it slow drifts west, which will trigger a warming trend that will see valley temperatures reach the triple digits for many beginning Sunday, and lasting through at least Wednesday afternoon. Highs will climb from the mid 80s to mid 90s this afternoon to reach the upper 90s to upper 100s by Monday afternoon. Overnight lows which would normally provide relief from the heat will also warm from the low 50s to low 60s Friday morning, into the upper 50s to low 70s by Tuesday morning. Will need to watch the temperature trends, as heat headlines my be needed for many for the end of the weekend and into the first half of next week as models show a moderate heat risk for the valley location along the I-80, US-6, and US-95 corridors as well as Alt US-93 in SE Elko county. Beginning Tuesday afternoon the GFS introduces a low 10% to 20% chance for some thunderstorms across the far eastern third of Nevada. The EC does lend minor support to this possibility with a few ensemble members, but is overall much less optimistic. The key factor will be if a upper level low develops over the Colorado river valley splitting the now weakening upper ridge in two. If this does develop there will be a path for monsoonal moisture to force its way into the Silver State next week, which will help cool temperatures a bit going into Next Wednesday and Thursday of next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in high pressure ridge building in over the the Great Basin trough the first half of next week leading much warmer temperatures and moderate heat risks. There is moderate for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday through Tuesday afternoons across NV due to warm temperatures and low humidity. Confidence is low for the possibility for thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours for Tuesday through Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours, with gentle northwesterly breezes. AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor. && .FIRE WEATHER... A warming trend is expected this weekend. High temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Monday through Wednesday will be six to eight degrees above normal for this time of year. This will result in a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Northeastern Elko County Monday afternoon into Monday evening due to northwest wind gusts near 25 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 13 percent. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...87 FIRE WEATHER...87