Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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385 FXUS64 KMEG 032032 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 332 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Active weather will persist across the Mid-South over the next 7 days or so. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day as upper level disturbances move through. There is the potential for organized weather towards the middle of next week as a low pressure system moves into the region. Temperatures will likely remain near normal due to clouds and storms each day. Expect highs around in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A mostly dry day across the Mid-South at this hour. Two decaying MCSs moved into the area this afternoon, but didn`t produce much convective activity as previous model guidance suggested. The most active weather is currently near the Alabama and Mississippi stateline, where a cluster of slow-moving strong storms have congealed. Hi-res models continue to struggle with shower and thunderstorm coverage across the region. The latest thinking is that this activity will continue to slowly lift northeast through sundown and taper off after sundown with the loss of daytime heating. Weak southwest flow aloft will persist through early next week. This will allow several weak perturbations to translate through the region. This weather pattern will continue to pose a challenge for nearly all model guidance, as steering flow will be weak and not well resolved. Using a more probabilistic approach is likely the best scenario here, however the 12Z HREF is not showing much in the way of precipitation for Saturday. Nonetheless, went with the NBM, which keeps 40 to 60 PoPs over the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon. Convective coverage looks a bit better on Sunday as a weak cold front and shortwave move into the region. Organized weather appears more likely by the middle of next week, as a large upper low ejects through the Central Plains. Subtle height falls will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday, where a Day 5 Slight Risk has been introduced north of I-40. A better chance of strong to severe storms appears to be next Wednesday into Thursday, where a surface low will track to our northwest. Still a bit early to sort out specific details, as synoptic model guidance still has timing and feature differences. A cold front looks to move through by late week and bring cooler and drier air to the region for next weekend. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 TSRA potential has decreased at MEM given a weakening upstream MCV and stabilizing effects of -RA and cloud cover. However, expect scattered SHRA to increase in coverage over north central and northeast MS, aided by surface heating and convergence along the northern periphery of an MCS over central MS. VFR over east central AR should spread into the MEM by late afternoon, and continue through the late evening inbound push. Clearing aloft and weak surface winds will favor low stratus formation at all TAF sites prior to 12Z. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...PWB