Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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117 FXUS64 KMEG 182029 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 329 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 A ridge of high pressure will build into the Mid-South tonight bringing an end to shower and thunderstorm chances through Tuesday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s by early next week. An unsettled pattern is expected to develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley next Wednesday into the start of the Memorial Day weekend, bringing daily shower and thunderstorm chances. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends show the remnants of last night`s MCV over portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. A shortwave rotating around this MCV has resulted in the re-development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over northeast Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies prevail across the remainder of the Mid-South with temperatures as of 2 PM CDT in the 70s to lower 80s. Short-term models indicate isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish into early this evening as the MCV pushes away from the Lower Mississippi Valley. An isolated strong thunderstorm or two containing gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall will be possible over northeast Mississippi for the next few hours. Short-term model soundings and HREF Grand Ensemble indicate the probabilities for fog overnight will be sufficient to mention patchy to areas of fog in the forecast for late tonight with relatively clear skies, light to nearly calm winds, and ample low-level moisture from recent rainfall. Surface and upper-level ridging is expected to build across the Lower Mississippi Valley into Tuesday. This will result in afternoon highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s as 925 mb temperatures increase to between 22-24C. Long-term models indicate the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day beginning next Wednesday into the start of the Memorial Day weekend as a cold front drops into the Lower Mississippi Valley and retreats back north as a warm front towards the end of the period. There is a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However, confidence is a bit lower as better forcing will remain displaced upstream over the Middle Mississippi Valley. CJC && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Most of the thunderstorm activity that moved through the Mid-South earlier this morning in now in western Alabama. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some patchy areas of fog may develop overnight, with MVFR visibilities possible at KMEM and KMKL. Winds will be mainly light and variable through Sunday morning. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...ARS