687
FXUS62 KMFL 101323
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
923 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Similar to yesterday morning, relatively dry and stable air
remains in place with morning stratus decks gradually breaking
down. Expect another mostly sunny to partly cloudy day with sea
breeze boundaries developing in the afternoon. Temperatures will
again reach the 90s today, with 850 temperatures above the 90th
percentile. Warmest temps will occur over interior areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

The mid-level ridge that has been centered over South Florida
today will begin to flatten as a shortwave and associated surface
low drops across the SE US. This will keep South Florida in a warm
prefrontal regime with 850mb temps around 20C, which would be
near the climatological maximum observed for this time of year.
Consequently, warm to near record temperatures can be expected
today with highs in the mid to upper 90s over the Interior, with
lower 90s near the immediate coast. For the east coast metro the
question will be how far inland and how quickly the sea breeze
pushes inland. For locations where the winds remain SWrly most of
the day, highs in the mid 90s are likely, while for locations that
experience an earlier sea breeze passage highs will likely be
around 90. As a slight consolation, the airmass will remain
relatively dry, so peak heat indices will only be marginally
higher than air temperatures, i.e. largely in the upper 90s to
around 100. Most areas will be rain-free today, with only 10-15%
PoPs over the Lake region.

Saturday will start out with South Florida in the prefrontal
regime with very warm temperatures and southwest to westerly
surface flow. By late morning to early afternoon, temperatures
will again be in the low to mid 90s across most of the area, with
heat index values around or above 100. Later in the afternoon and
evening, a frontal boundary will slowly begin to push across the
area, bringing along chances for showers and thunderstorms. The
best chances will be across the Lake region and Palm Beach County
(30-40%), with lower chances of 15-30% across the rest of South
Florida. Strong to even severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out,
as sufficient instability (1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and moderate lapse
rates), moisture (1.5"+ PWAT), and shear (25-30kts of effective
bulk shear) may be in place, especially along the East Coast. The
primary hazards with any thunderstorms that may develop would be
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

The long term period will start out with a weakening frontal
boundary pushing across South Florida and stalling just to the
south. Behind the frontal boundary, conditions will be dry and a
bit cooler than previous days, with high temperatures on Sunday
ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s across the area.

For most of next week, a warm prefrontal airmass will return to
South Florida under a mid-level ridge and southwest to westerly
flow aloft. The frontal boundary that moved through over the
weekend will push back to the north, and surface winds will
gradually transition from southeasterly on Monday to south-
southwesterly on Wednesday and Thursday. It will be reminiscent of
the recent weather pattern, with the one difference being more
atmospheric moisture in the area, bringing daily chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms along sea breeze boundaries.

Above normal temperatures will be the primary headline of the
long term period, as highs will be in the low to mid 90s for most
of South Florida throughout the week. Heat indices will have the
potential to climb into the 100s across much of South Florida in
the mid-week period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR should prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Light
and variable winds will become generally SW in the 11-14kts range
with gusty periods after 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

A moderate to fresh south-southwesterly breeze today will turn
southwest to westerly on Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches
the area. Winds over the Atlantic waters will likely reach
cautionary to near-hazardous conditions late this evening into
tonight. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday as the frontal boundary moves into the region.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

An elevated risk of rip currents will persist for the Palm Beach
coastline today. As winds trend more westerly/offshore over the
weekend, the risk will decrease over the Atlantic coastline.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

A dry air mass will remain in place over the next few days, with
minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent over the
interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the
generally dry fuels could lead to enhanced fire weather
conditions, but winds are forecast to remain below Red Flag
criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  76  94  74 /   0   0  20  10
West Kendall     95  73  95  71 /   0   0  10   0
Opa-Locka        95  75  95  74 /   0   0  20  10
Homestead        92  75  94  73 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  93  76  93  75 /   0   0  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  94  76  94  75 /   0   0  30  10
Pembroke Pines   96  76  97  74 /   0   0  20  10
West Palm Beach  96  73  93  74 /  10  10  40  10
Boca Raton       95  75  94  75 /  10  10  30  10
Naples           88  77  88  72 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...17