413
FXUS64 KSJT 170520
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1220 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 419 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...Severe weather is possible through the remainder of this
afternoon into early tonight...

A consolidated Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of our
area except the northern Big Country, through 11 PM. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring across mainly the northern
and eastern parts of our area at mid-afternoon, with new storms
developing in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico.
Surface outflow boundary/effective cold front has moved just south
of our area, then extended back to the northwest to near the
southeastern corner of New Mexico. Partial clearing has occurred
north of this boundary over much of our area. With the gradual
approach of an upper trough from New Mexico, chances for additional
showers and thunderstorms continue for our area through tonight.
With a recovering airmass over our area, the combination of
instability and effective bulk shear values of 40-50 knots, the
possibility for severe weather continues through this evening into
early tonight with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.
Patchy fog and low cloud development could occur in mainly the
eastern half of our area late tonight and early Friday morning.
Overnight lows will be mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Expect chances of showers and storms to drop off across our area on
Friday. Cloud cover will decrease and winds will be from the west to
northwest. Expect highs to range from the upper 70s/lower 80s in the
Big Country and Heartland areas, to around 90 along the I-10
corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Hot and dry weather is expected for this weekend through much of
next week as ridging aloft builds across West Central Texas under
persistent southerly flow. Highs will range in the mid 90s to
around 105 across the area, with Concho Valley seeing some of the
higher temperatures. Slightly cooler temperatures are possible
next Wednesday and Thursday, with a very small chance for
precipitation mid-to-late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Expect MVFR ceilings to develop at the terminals during the next
few hours and continue until late morning. Also, some patchy fog
is possible. Expect VFR conditions to return from mid morning
through the rest of the TAF forecast. Hi-Res models are indicating
isolated thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor during the late
afternoon and early evening, but will keep thunder out of the
southern terminals for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  94  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  61  98  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    64 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   61  91  67  92 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  63  95  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       63  98  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       62  92  68  94 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...21