Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 141125 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
625 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

High pressure will exit the region to the east today as a frontal
boundary approaches from the west. The front will slide across the
CWA tonight, with a weak TROWAL feature sliding across the
northeastern part of the area late tonight into Tuesday morning,
possibly bringing a mix of light rain or snow showers to far
northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. High pressure
drops back in over the area Tuesday afternoon.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 30s north to the
mid 50s south, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 30s. Cooler air
moves back in behind the front Tuesday, with highs in the mid 30s to
lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Aided by a ridge building in Tuesday night and Wednesday, the long
term outlook is for mostly dry and warmer conditions through
Saturday. Things become a little more questionable after that.
Deterministic models vary greatly in regards to whether or not low
pressure will affect the region overnight Saturday through the
remainder of the forecast period. The GFS keeps low pressure mostly
to the south and then east while the EC and Canadian bring it over
the region. At this point, the 540 thickness line remains mostly
north and west of the CWA, so conditions look to favor mostly rain
as of now.  Either way, it`s still Day 6, so just something to keep
an eye on at the moment.

High temperatures start out below average Wednesday and become above
average for central South Dakota and around average for the rest of
the CWA Thursday.  Highs then remain around average for Friday and
Saturday before dropping back below average Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today into this
evening. Look for MVFR cigs associated with a frontal boundary to
develop over mainly the northern and eastern parts of the area
late tonight.




LONG TERM...Telken
AVIATION...Parkin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.