Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270523 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1223 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Made a couple of adjustments to winds and temps overnight, one to
gain a little bit better definition of some expected slightly
stronger wswrly downslope winds along the eastern slopes of the
Prairie Coteau overnight. This led to the insertion of some
"patchy" blowing snow mention there in the wind-favored areas.
Even with the anticipated temperature plummet after sunset on
light winds under a clear sky, a few areas are already within a
degree or two of current forecast lows, with a couple more hours
of potential temperature cooling still possible before any low
level waa has the chance to steady-out temperatures for the rest
of the night. Did adjust down forecast lows for some areas by a
handful of degrees between now and 06Z. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 704 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Surface high pressure currently over the Central Plains has kept
conditions fairly cold today. The high will remain the dominant
feature over the area into the evening hours, and will likely see
temperatures drop fairly rapidly after sunset under clear skies. WAA
begins to kick in around the midnight time frame, and should see
temperatures rise a bit through the remainder of the nighttime
hours. The WAA then continues through the day Tuesday into Tuesday
night as the region remains situated between the high to the south
and approaching low pressure to the northwest. Will see wind speeds
increase into the 10 to 20 mph range on Tuesday. Cannot rule out
some patchy blowing snow, but due the moisture content and the fact
that the snow pack will be a couple days old, do not anticipate any
issues. No precipitation is expected during the short term period.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the single digits above zero,
with highs on Tuesday mainly in the 30s. Lows Tuesday night will be
in the lower to mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Really not much change for the extended with the snow on the ground
initially having the greatest impact on the forecast. As milder air
aloft moves in we will see melting and gradual warming thanks for
favorable mixing winds. There may be a glancing shot at some colder
air for Thursday with a backdoor front across the northeast. The
core of the warm surge is for late Friday/Saturday, where 850mb
temperatures encroach on a standard deviation above climo. There
will be a second glancing shot at cold air for Sunday, with warm air
returning quickly for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail across the area through the
TAF period. By the end of Tuesday, though, LLWS could become an
issue as a corridor of stronger west-northwest winds move into
portions of north central and northeast South Dakota.

***Construction to improve taxiways at both KABR/KPIR terminals
may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due
to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...TDK


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