Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 161113
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
613 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0400 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/

Through Tonight.

The abundance of rain has just about moved out of the area and we
are left with generally just isolated to scattered light
rain/drizzle. There is a cold front to our north that will be
sliding in this morning and will keep rain chances a touch on the
higher side through mid-morning and then will decrease as we move
into the afternoon. Look for a cloudy day for the south, with
perhaps a touch of sun in the north by late afternoon. Highs will be
in the 60s north to 70s south. Tonight temperatures will drop off
substantial with low to mid 40s expected. A few locally cooler
areas in the north will likely drop into the upper 30s. Did add in
river fog into the forecast as water temperatures will not drop near
as low as surface temperatures, so there will be locally dense areas
of fog likely right at rivers and nears lakes. This area will be too
small to mention in the HWO at this time but be prepared while
driving Thursday morning.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0400 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/

Thursday and Friday.

For the remainder of the work week, a quiet and relatively mild
Thu/Fri is set for Central Alabama as stable conditions remain
across much of the region. Northerly flow will persist through
Thursday, eventually veering more easterly as high pressure
centered to our north progresses toward the East Coast. The
evolving pattern will support an amplifying upper-level ridge
across the eastern CONUS as a broad trough develops out west.
This, and mostly sunny skies, will help raise temperatures back
into the mid 70s Friday afternoon. Widespread lows in the 40s
Thursday night increase to the upper 40s/mid 50s for Friday night.
Meanwhile, eyes will be on a system that may potentially develop
in the Gulf of Mexico. This will have forecast implications for
the latter portion of the long-term period.

Saturday through Tuesday.

Weekend weather conditions, and particulary into early next week,
begin to become more complex and unsettled as we keep an eye on two
disturbances to bring rain chances to Central Alabama. The first
opportunity will be associated with a potentially organizing
tropical/sub-tropical system forecast to move northward from the Bay
of Campeche into the northwestern/northern Gulf during the weekend.
This system will certainly bring a broad area of tropical moisture
as it nears the Gulf Coast, though will be in competition with an
antecedent dry, continental airmass and the departing upper-level
ridge on Saturday. Regardless, rain chances increase during this
time though have kept PoPs truncated to ~50% or less as the
trajectory, strength, and overall organization of the disturbance
will impact many weather variables, including rainfall. Currently
the NHC has given the system a 40% chance of tropical/sub-tropical
cyclone formation through the weekend.

Upstream and inland, a potent upper-level trough is forecast to dig
southeastward across the Intermountain West with lee cyclogenesis
across the High Plains by Sunday morning. As this strengthening &
dynamic wave continues eastward, a trailing frontal boundary is
expected to approach the Mississippi River Valley Mon/Tue with a
broad area of low-level warm/moist advection and southwesterly flow
aloft over the Southeast. Assuming the departure of the Gulf system
by Monday, this will incur another period of rain/thunderstorm
chances across the Deep South. Though specific details are still
lacking as we are several days out, the disturbance warrants some
attention and will be watched in the coming days.

40/Sizemore


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Generally IFR ceilings north and MVFR ceilings south this morning
as the cold front now begins to push through the area. Looks like
the front will be right on top of BHM at 12Z and then will slide
south and east this morning.Additional rain coverage will develop
generally just east of ANB/ASN this morning and south of EET/TCL,
so only MGM and TOI may see additional rain. Conditions will
improve by the afternoon with winds increasing from the north. A
few gusts of up to 20 kts are possible. By 00Z, skies should be
clearing and winds will calm. There could be some river fog but
did not include at any site at this time.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Areas of light rain are still impacting Central Alabama this
morning, though a frontal boundary will bring and end to wet
conditions by this evening. Thereafter, a drier and cooler
airmass will move into the area with a period of dry weather
expected through the end of the week. Moderating temperatures will
preclude another period of increasing rain chances during the the
weekend, however. Unsettled weather and continued rain chances,
including the possibility of thunderstorms, are expected through
early next week.

The Alabama Forestry Commission continues to have a fire alert in
effect that includes all of Central Alabama. For more information
about restrictions, visit their web site at forestry.alabama.gov.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  42  66  43  72 /  30   0   0   0   0
Anniston    69  43  67  44  73 /  40   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  68  45  67  47  73 /  30   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  70  45  69  47  73 /  20   0   0   0   0
Calera      70  45  68  45  72 /  30   0   0   0   0
Auburn      73  46  68  46  71 /  50   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  75  47  70  48  73 /  40   0   0   0   0
Troy        76  48  70  47  72 /  50   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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