Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 160237 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Boise ID
820 PM MDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...Lots of high clouds this evening but no chance
of rain in our CWA until Wednesday evening in Baker and Harney
Counties. Latest models continue to support current forecast
of warm dry weather Wednesday, with showers beginning Wednesday
night in eastern Oregon as a cold front arrives from the west.
Front will move across eastern Oregon overnight and western
Idaho Thursday morning.  Front will bring a wind shift from
south to west followed by showers and much cooler air.
Moisture near the front will decrease as it moves into
south-central Idaho midday Thursday, with only a few light
showers that far east.


.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear. Surface winds mainly SE around 10
kts. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL SW 15-25 kts increasing to 20-30 kts
after 16/06z.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Dry and warmer tonight
through Wednesday with southwest flow aloft. Temperatures about
10 degrees above normal Wednesday, with breezy conditions
developing on Wednesday afternoon, especially across the higher
terrain of Oregon as the next system approaches. That trough
starts to move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a chance
of showers to the Oregon zones on Wednesday night, and into the
Idaho zones early Thursday. This wave is weakening quickly as it
moves across the area, but still enough agreement that there will
be some light precip in most areas, so have raised precip chances
slightly. The bigger story will be the cooling, as the trough
brings in much cooler air, and highs on Thursday will likely be
15-20 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Also breezy northwest winds
will develop behind the front, especially in the afternoon and in
the western Magic Valley.

LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...A near zonal flow
will spread across the Pacific Ocean through the extended period.
This will allow another weak system to ride across the northern
zones bringing a threat of precipitation. A stronger system is
expected to quickly drop into the Pacific Northwest and Great
Basin through the day on Saturday. This will be the best threat
for precipitation.  Snow levels are expected to lower to around
4500 feet across the north and 6000 feet near the Nevada border.
Temperatures should drop to about 10-15 degrees below normal. A
weak upper level ridge will follow on Monday which will keep the
region mostly dry with temperatures near normal.





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