Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 060521 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR is expected through the next 24 hours. Light to
moderate winds are anticipated with limited cloud coverage.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...As Tropical Storm Cristobal advances further north
across the central Gulf of Mexico, light to moderate winds will
shift directions across Deep South Texas and the RGV over the
next 24 hours. VFR conditions are expected to persist across all 3
Rio Grande Valley TAF sites tonight into tomorrow with high
pressure in control.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020/

SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night): Tropical Storm Cristobal
is on the move to the north as it emerges from the Yucatan into the
central Gulf. Cristobal is forecast to remain a storm as it heads
north, making landfall on the north central Gulf coast by Sunday
evening. The main environmental driver from Cristobal will be
increasing swell and wave heights along the lower Texas coast, which
will create a threat of stronger rip currents, elevated surf, and
coastal flooding. These threats could exploit vulnerable beachgoers
who venture into the water this weekend with a higher risk of death
or injury. Water running up onto the beach later in the period and
into the weekend could result in coastal flooding and beach
closures. Confidence is high that the above conditions will develop
as the weekend progresses, but Cristobal is forecast to remain well
east of the area, with the main impacts affecting the beaches.

Outside of the potential impacts to the lower Texas coast, weather
conditions heading into the weekend for the rest of the CWA will be
rather quiet. High temperatures will be in the 90s and overnight
lows in the 70s, with light winds shifting to northeast. Cloud cover
will be mostly limited, as will be the rain chances.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): The main story in the long-
term period will be abnormally hot temperatures through the
majority of the period. Dry, subsident air will affect much of
Texas beginning on Sunday as Tropical Cyclone Cristobal continues
to drift northward across the northern Gulf of Mexico and in the
vicinity of the LA coastline. Surface winds will be light and
variable across the CWA through the day on Sunday, with light to
moderate northernly winds offshore. Winds will turn back out of
the south/southeast late Sunday night as Cristobal makes landfall
and moves inland across the Southern US. Both high and low
temperatures are expected to increase further as potent
mid/upper-level ridging forms and builds over Deep South Texas
beginning Monday. With surface winds remaining out of the
southeast for the first half of the upcoming workweek, dewpoint
temperatures will remain on the muggy side. The combination of
hot temperatures and moist dewpoints will increase heat indices
Monday-Wednesday, with highest values occurring on Tuesday
afternoon...widespread values between 110-115+. Heat Advisories
may be needed through the middle part of the week. Long-range
models do begin to differ starting on Wednesday, with the ECMWF
dragging a weak cold front through the state, stalling just north
of or on top of the CWA sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening
before pushing through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, the latest GFS solution does have a cold front pushing
through the state on Wednesday, but does not bring it through the
CWA, but perhaps washing out before it can make it this far
south. Temperatures will highly depend on what this weak cold
front does, with slightly cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday
if the front pushes through. Needless to say, there is very low
forecast confidence Wednesday-Friday.

There will be an exceptionally elevated risk of rip currents on
Sunday and possibly into Monday before TC Cristobal makes
landfall. Additionally, there is a threat of some minor coastal
flooding on Sunday, especially at high tide.

MARINE (Now Through Saturday Night): Light to moderate east winds
will back to northeast as Tropical Storm Cristobal moves north over
the central Gulf and modifies the large scale flow. Seeing some
longer period swells from the southeast and the current moderate
wave heights are dominated by swell height. Wave heights will build
slowly through the short term, with small craft should exercise
caution conditions possible on the Gulf on Saturday and small craft
advisory conditions possible by Saturday night.

Sunday through Wednesday: Adverse marine conditions are expected
along the Lower Texas Coast through Sunday night due to the
movement of Tropical Cyclone Cristobal through the central and
northern Gulf of Mexico. A relatively tight pressure gradient
will cause periodic SCEC conditions Monday and Tuesday on the Gulf
Waters, possibly bleeding in the bay at times. Favorable marine
conditions are forecast on Wednesday.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 1 PM CDT
     this afternoon for TXZ256-257-351.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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